Moving in the right direction?!?!

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LSU Law Greenie
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Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by LSU Law Greenie »

The one thing I've noticed since head coach WF has been here is that we rarely get "blown out" like in years past. My definition of a "blow out" is 2 scores or more (14 or more points). While we all would like to win more and go bowling - we've come so close the last 2 years (2017 - Navy, FIU, USF, Cincy, SMU; 2018 - WF, UAB, SMU). That got me wondering - how many times have we been blown out since WF was hired as compared to the years before that (I went back to 2010). Question: Are we moving in the right direction?

What I found was somewhat surprising but then again, not all THAT surprising but I'll share it here with you now.

Tulane has lost by 14 or more 6 times since WF was hired in 2016.

2018 - 1

Ohio State

2017 - 2

Oklahoma
Memphis

2016 - 3

Tulsa
UCF
Temple

For comparison, Tulane lost by 14 or more 6 times in BOTH 2015 and 2014. Since 2010 the only year with less that 6 blowout losses before WF was hired was in 2013 (2 times) when we went bowling. Here are the totals before WF was hired. Its amazing how may times in a season we had to watch such lopsided blowouts.

2015 - 6

Duke
Georgia Tech
Temple
Houston
Navy
SMU

2014 - 6

Georgia Tech
Duke
Rutgers
Cincinnati
Memphis
ECU

2013 - 2

Syracuse
FAU

2012 - 6

Tulsa
Ole Miss
UL Monroe
UL Lafayette
Memphis
Houston

2011 - 9

Tulsa
Duke
Army
UTEP
Memphis
ECU
SMU
Houston
Hawaii

2010 - 8

Ole Miss
Houston
Army
Tulsa
SMU
Southern Miss
UCF
Marshall

So, what are your thoughts? Comments? Do you think we are moving in the right direction?
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PeteRasche
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by PeteRasche »

Good Lord... 2010... And SC/RD brought him back for another year. Gracious. :oops:

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LSU Law Greenie
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by LSU Law Greenie »

PeteRasche wrote:Good Lord... 2010... And SC/RD brought him back for another year. Gracious. :oops:
I was thinking the same thing about 2010. I wrote down all the scores of the games for each year but it was too depressing to type. Some of the greatest hits were a 53 point loss to UL Monroe, a 28 point loss to UL Lafayette, a 39 point loss to Amry and a 37 point loss to UTEP :shock:
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angrywavedad
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by angrywavedad »

Wow. As a new fan I knew Tulane didn't have the greatest football history, but some of those years are just astoundingly bad. There's no comparison to the current situation.

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GreenieBacker
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by GreenieBacker »

I know we get upset at what we've perceived as slow progress under Fritz but boy those numbers tell you just what a colossal train wreck this Program was when he got here. Just extremely depressing numbers to consider. And it tells you the train wreck went deep, athletic dpt. support, facilities, budget, recruiting, coaching, etc
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Saintgreenie
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by Saintgreenie »

I think it has been clear from the start of the Fritz era that things have improved. People want to say "no moral victories;" but, when you have as few victories as we have historically, it's a good start.

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Private Joker
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by Private Joker »

Thanks for doing the work to come up with the analysis.

My hope for Tulane football is that we play "competent, legitimate D-I football." I think your analysis shows that WF has definitely delivered that. Especially on defense. It hasn't translated yet into an adequate number of wins, though. I feel confident that Tulane football can slug it out with any team in the country outside of perhaps the top 15.

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by Bham Wave »

While all of us diehards see the obvious improvement the only thing the outside sees are W’s and L’s.
That is why getting to a bowl game this year is so very important. It gives the program some validation. We are a “bowl team”. If we finish 6-6 this year and go bowling does that mean we are dramatically better than the 5-7 team that did not go bowling last year? Who knows but the perception will be that we are much better simply because we made the post season.
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by GSx »

I have no real complaints with what Fritz is doing...it's slow and steady. That's fine.

But comparing most other 21st century Tulane teams, esp Toledo, is a mighty low bar.

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by waverider »

I have been thinking about this same thing a lot and any reasonable person can see we are a much better program than before Fritz got here. Those same reasonable people knew this wasn’t an overnight quick fix. I feel pretty confident in saying most of those teams prior to Fritz wouldn’t have us in the position we’re in now.

To add to that. Look at the teams we’re were losing big (I consider 3TDs a blowout) and those are conference teams that we now beat and occasionally blow out.
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Wavery
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by Wavery »

What was the year when we were loosing 35-0 one play into the 2nd quarter against UCF?

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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

I like the analysis and agree that WF has made us more competitive. I hope this means we are on the right track. BTW, we lost to Cincinnati this year by 16, so it belongs on the list for this season as well.

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by Roller »

I once asked a VATech-fan friend why they bore with Beamer for so many years before they began to win. His answer was "because every year we had more and more CLOSE losses, and we were confident that at some point those would start being victories."

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by LSU Law Greenie »

Wavery wrote:What was the year when we were loosing 35-0 one play into the 2nd quarter against UCF?
In 2010 we lost to UCF 61-14. UCF scored 31 points in the first quarter. :shock:
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by TUPF »

LSU Law Greenie wrote:
Wavery wrote:What was the year when we were loosing 35-0 one play into the 2nd quarter against UCF?
In 2010 we lost to UCF 61-14. UCF scored 31 points in the first quarter. :shock:
When you are that far outclassed you can smell it on the field. I officiated a varsity HS game this season where it was 34-0 at the end of 1Q—unforced PAT miss. Ended up 61-0 with 2nd team in entire 2nd half.
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by wavedom »

Roller wrote:I once asked a VATech-fan friend why they bore with Beamer for so many years before they began to win. His answer was "because every year we had more and more CLOSE losses, and we were confident that at some point those would start being victories."
The facts of why Beamer got the chance he got is that he took over a program that got hit with severe sanctions caused by the previous staff. Then there's the fact that he had winning seasons in years 3 and 4. He then had two more losing seasons one of which was 5-6. Then the consecutive winning seasons began. So it was not a situation where he did not win for six straight seasons.
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by Wandering Quaker »

I don't think there is a lot of disagreement about there having been significant progress in the program, in terms of somewhat improved recruiting, shoring up the defense, and better weight training and conditioning. The open question--to which we hoped we might get a resounding affirmative answer this year--is whether these improvements are leading to winning seasons, bowl appearances, conference championships, etc.

Measured by performance game to game, this team has been all over the place. That is the single most powerful reason why the losses trigger so much dissatisfaction and the fear that things might have ceased to move in the right direction. We still don't have an answer to the big question.
Last edited by Wandering Quaker on Thu Nov 08, 2018 8:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by OGSB »

wavedom wrote:
Roller wrote:I once asked a VATech-fan friend why they bore with Beamer for so many years before they began to win. His answer was "because every year we had more and more CLOSE losses, and we were confident that at some point those would start being victories."
The facts of why Beamer got the chance he got is that he took over a program that got hit with severe sanctions caused by the previous staff. Then there's the fact that he had winning seasons in years 3 and 4. He then had two more losing seasons one of which was 5-6. Then the consecutive winning seasons began. So it was not a situation where he did not win for six straight seasons.
The season after that 5-6 one was 2-8-1. Hard to imagine the patience that must have taken when it looked like they were headed the wrong way again.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by wavedom »

OGSB wrote:
wavedom wrote:
Roller wrote:I once asked a VATech-fan friend why they bore with Beamer for so many years before they began to win. His answer was "because every year we had more and more CLOSE losses, and we were confident that at some point those would start being victories."
The facts of why Beamer got the chance he got is that he took over a program that got hit with severe sanctions caused by the previous staff. Then there's the fact that he had winning seasons in years 3 and 4. He then had two more losing seasons one of which was 5-6. Then the consecutive winning seasons began. So it was not a situation where he did not win for six straight seasons.
The season after that 5-6 one was 2-8-1. Hard to imagine the patience that must have taken when it looked like they were headed the wrong way again.
As noted above the program was hit with huge recruiting sanctions because of the previous regime. There were winning seasons in years 3 and 4. And they had a man with a backbone that understood the situation Beamer walked into.
Here we come!

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by OGSB »

wavedom wrote:
OGSB wrote:
wavedom wrote:
Roller wrote:I once asked a VATech-fan friend why they bore with Beamer for so many years before they began to win. His answer was "because every year we had more and more CLOSE losses, and we were confident that at some point those would start being victories."
The facts of why Beamer got the chance he got is that he took over a program that got hit with severe sanctions caused by the previous staff. Then there's the fact that he had winning seasons in years 3 and 4. He then had two more losing seasons one of which was 5-6. Then the consecutive winning seasons began. So it was not a situation where he did not win for six straight seasons.
The season after that 5-6 one was 2-8-1. Hard to imagine the patience that must have taken when it looked like they were headed the wrong way again.
As noted above the program was hit with huge recruiting sanctions because of the previous regime. There were winning seasons in years 3 and 4. And they had a man with a backbone that understood the situation Beamer walked into.
Obviously I’m not arguing the decision was wrong I’m just trying to look at it as someone who doesn’t know what’s going to happen, like everyone else up to this moment.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by OGSB »

Interesting to look at Buddy Teevens. Won 10 games here in 5 seasons. Flopped at Stanford afterwards. Went back to Dartmouth and won 9 games in his first 5 seasons back. That’s one less than 5 seasons here. Since then he’s gone 59-29. Maybe we weren’t patient enough?
Past performance is no guarantee of future results

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by Wandering Quaker »

OGSB wrote:Interesting to look at Buddy Teevens. Won 10 games here in 5 seasons. Flopped at Stanford afterwards. Went back to Dartmouth and won 9 games in his first 5 seasons back. That’s one less than 5 seasons here. Since then he’s gone 59-29. Maybe we weren’t patient enough?
No, we did the right thing. He had enough chance everywhere to change his approach. He never did, which is one reason the offense stank while he was running the show at Tulane.

Hanover is a coaching dead end. Dartmouth was lucky to get someone who wanted to be there.

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by speckled trout »

At least teams have to get up to play Tulane these days. The Memphis's and USF's of the world used to be able to just show up and win by 30, not to mention getting skulldrugged by bad programs (ULM, ULL, Rice, etc.) with even fewer resources than us. Things have gotten so much better since then. I know that "not getting blown out all the time" is a low bar and there are higher expectations now, but it actually is progress. All I can ask is that Tulane continues to improve.
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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by TXWave88 »

GEez. I found a way to forget about those losses to ULM and ULL. Looking back, that was the worst offensive line I have ever seen play. We had Darkwa and Kelly and could not run the ball. Also had DJ Ponder as out qb. What a mess! I do not know all of the Tulane seasons, but getting the doors blown off by both ULM and ULL in a season.....that has to be ranked as one of the worst! lol

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Re: Moving in the right direction?!?!

Post by krewe of ham and eggs »

TXWave88 wrote:GEez. I found a way to forget about those losses to ULM and ULL. Looking back, that was the worst offensive line I have ever seen play. We had Darkwa and Kelly and could not run the ball. Also had DJ Ponder as out qb. What a mess! I do not know all of the Tulane seasons, but getting the doors blown off by both ULM and ULL in a season.....that has to be ranked as one of the worst! lol
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