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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:28 am 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
This isn't a very large storm in terms of size. It looks like it will be a fast mover. If all holds as is currently predicted, the storm will still be off the coast at 2am on Sunday. Is that enough to move the game up on Saturday afternoon?


I would move it up.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 8:46 am 
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Tulane will make a decision on game time this afternoon.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 9:51 am 
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Per Steve Geller, the game has been moved to 11am


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:05 am 
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How does this affect TV coverage? Do we shift from ESPNU to 3 or are we off the air?


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:07 am 
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it almost certainly knocks the game off ESPNU. ESPN will probably still stream it.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:08 am 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
How does this affect TV coverage? Do we shift from ESPNU to 3 or are we off the air?

Wondering that myself. My guess is ESPN3 would be the most likely.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:42 am 
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Poseidon wrote:
I don't understand the point of the cone when the storms continually track outside of the cone. Just draw a line of the days guess and let it skew from there.


They don't.

The cone is a zone of probability (usually ~90% for the three day track, 67% for the 5 day track) that the center of the storm will be in on that day. But cyclones are big and wide, and the center of the storm can be misleading. If you look back at most cone models, they hold up to what they are designed to do.

This is why the NOAA has starting using wind probability maps instead.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:54 am 
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enviro5609 wrote:
Poseidon wrote:
I don't understand the point of the cone when the storms continually track outside of the cone. Just draw a line of the days guess and let it skew from there.


They don't.

The cone is a zone of probability (usually ~90% for the three day track, 67% for the 5 day track) that the center of the storm will be in on that day. But cyclones are big and wide, and the center of the storm can be misleading. If you look back at most cone models, they hold up to what they are designed to do.

This is why the NOAA has starting using wind probability maps instead.

Image


Why is your user name tempting me to believe whatever you say about the weather. :stan:

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 10:59 am 
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enviro5609 wrote:
Poseidon wrote:
I don't understand the point of the cone when the storms continually track outside of the cone. Just draw a line of the days guess and let it skew from there.


They don't.

The cone is a zone of probability (usually ~90% for the three day track, 67% for the 5 day track) that the center of the storm will be in on that day. But cyclones are big and wide, and the center of the storm can be misleading. If you look back at most cone models, they hold up to what they are designed to do.

This is why the NOAA has starting using wind probability maps instead.

Image
I think people forget how small the eye (center) can be relative to the whole storm. The cone (which has gotten pretty accurate the past few years) shows the path that the eye is forecasted to take. As long as it doesn't change drastically this should be a fast moving storm with little flooding. Also helps that we should stay to the west, sending the "heavier" bands to the east of us.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:06 am 
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WR- that looks like a direct hit there. Not sure about what you are saying about us being to the west of it.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:13 pm 
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ESPNEWS is a possibility for TV, though reportedly Miami-FSU is looking at a move to 11am Central time as well. If that happens, not enough room at the inn and Tulsa-Tulane likely becomes ESPN3 only. That scenario is likely the holdup for any TV/non-TV confirmation.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:39 pm 
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wavedom wrote:
WR- that looks like a direct hit there. Not sure about what you are saying about us being to the west of it.

That's a wind speed probability chart.

Here's the cone of possible path which could mean a direct hit, but if this is accurate, we would be to the west of the storm.
Image

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:49 pm 
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Even if that ends up being where it comes in that's so very close that it will be much like a direct hit. Not like we would be on the outer portion of the cone where we would be in a good position.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:09 pm 
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wavedom wrote:
Even if that ends up being where it comes in that's so very close that it will be much like a direct hit. Not like we would be on the outer portion of the cone where we would be in a good position.

Understand your concern and you should take every reasonable caution. However if it makes you feel a little better you can take a ruler and approximate a straight line track of the eye, which is most often well defined. Because a hurricane spins CCW in the northern hemisphere the area constituting its right front quadrant is usually the highest wind speed—it’s a matter of vectors combining the speed of the forward motion of the entire hurricane with its wind speed. So, if you are to the west of that line of motion, you would be receiving the backside, or the left front and rear quadrant wind which would be somewhat less apparent wind speed. And the further you are from the eye, the lesser the winds.

Of course there are many variables. Texas showed once again that the hurricane winds are quickly over but the rains and flooding can be the gift that keeps giving, whilst the threat of tornadoes is ever present.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:31 pm 
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May I remind all of that little b1tch Tropical Storm (later minimal category 1 Hurricane) Cindy in 2005 that came right over the city? Wasn't expected to do squat.
At the time created the largest blackout in c of NO since Betsy in the 60s. We had a few tornados tear through River Ridge (where I live) one of which ripped up a several thousand pound 25' x 25' metal framed awning that was bolted into my roof's rafters. Completely lifted it up and threw it into my neighbors house who lived behind us. Half of my roof came up with it.
Tons of damage all around my neighborhood.
Nick is a long way away. Anything can happen. Pay attention.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 1:48 pm 
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waverider wrote:
wavedom wrote:
WR- that looks like a direct hit there. Not sure about what you are saying about us being to the west of it.

That's a wind speed probability chart.

Here's the cone of possible path which could mean a direct hit, but if this is accurate, we would be to the west of the storm.
Image


Also, that is just the center of the storm in the cone track. If the center of the storm hits Pensacola, it would still be considered accurate. And we would get nothing more than scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds.


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:16 pm 
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1401973 wrote:
May I remind all of that little b1tch Tropical Storm (later minimal category 1 Hurricane) Cindy in 2005 that came right over the city? Wasn't expected to do squat.
At the time created the largest blackout in c of NO since Betsy in the 60s. We had a few tornados tear through River Ridge (where I live) one of which ripped up a several thousand pound 25' x 25' metal framed awning that was bolted into my roof's rafters. Completely lifted it up and threw it into my neighbors house who lived behind us. Half of my roof came up with it.
Tons of damage all around my neighborhood.
Nick is a long way away. Anything can happen. Pay attention.

The deal with Cindy is that everyone thought it would be a tropical storm and it strengthened to Cat 1 overnight as it made landfall.

Nate shouldn't produce catestrophic flooding (flooding expected in the obvious coastal areas from surge and in the City of New Orleans where a 15 minute downpour causes flooding) if it moves through like it should. Won't be a Harvey event that sits here for a week.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:21 pm 
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enviro5609 wrote:
waverider wrote:
wavedom wrote:
WR- that looks like a direct hit there. Not sure about what you are saying about us being to the west of it.

That's a wind speed probability chart.

Here's the cone of possible path which could mean a direct hit, but if this is accurate, we would be to the west of the storm.
Image


Also, that is just the center of the storm in the cone track. If the center of the storm hits Pensacola, it would still be considered accurate. And we would get nothing more than scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds.

That's kind of what I tried to say. If it hits Pensacola we will hardly know it's out there assuming it doesn't grow exponentially over the next two days. The middle of the cone is the average of where the models predict it will go. So we could still get a direct hit or it could pass us by with little notice. As long as it stays to the East of us, we'll make it out mostly unscathed. Even a direct hit won't be too bad.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 2:50 pm 
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In non-storm news, the official uniform for Saturday is Green Helmet, Green Jersey, White Pants, Green Shoes (@TulaneEquipment)


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 3:11 pm 
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waverider wrote:
1401973 wrote:
May I remind all of that little b1tch Tropical Storm (later minimal category 1 Hurricane) Cindy in 2005 that came right over the city? Wasn't expected to do squat.
At the time created the largest blackout in c of NO since Betsy in the 60s. We had a few tornados tear through River Ridge (where I live) one of which ripped up a several thousand pound 25' x 25' metal framed awning that was bolted into my roof's rafters. Completely lifted it up and threw it into my neighbors house who lived behind us. Half of my roof came up with it.
Tons of damage all around my neighborhood.
Nick is a long way away. Anything can happen. Pay attention.

The deal with Cindy is that everyone thought it would be a tropical storm and it strengthened to Cat 1 overnight as it made landfall.

I think that's a scam perpetrated by the insurance industry. :-)


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 4:26 pm 
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Spread now 5 for a few houses....


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:28 pm 
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PeteRasche wrote:
Put it this way: if we can't beat Tulsa, are there four other teams remaining on our schedule who are worse and more likely for us to beat? No. There are three.

Beat Tulsa.

That's true, and it would be a tougher road; still the other teams on this schedule are not THAT daunting (except for USF) that we couldn't win.
I remember in 2002 - we lost to a terrible Army team when we needed the W, and then whipped USM the next week.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 6:36 pm 
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GSx wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
Put it this way: if we can't beat Tulsa, are there four other teams remaining on our schedule who are worse and more likely for us to beat? No. There are three.

Beat Tulsa.

That's true, and it would be a tougher road; still the other teams on this schedule are not THAT daunting (except for USF) that we couldn't win.
I remember in 2002 - we lost to a terrible Army team when we needed the W, and then whipped USM the next week.

I agree with you. USF will be the toughest game on our schedule, as I've said before, if for no other reason than they have a more athletic two deep than us. With our defense combined with a little more life from the offense Fritz is correct in saying there are 8 games on our schedule we can win. (He's also correct in saying we could lose all 8 if we lose focus and don't play well). Winning this week could lead to winning one more game than anticipated.

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PostPosted: Thu Oct 05, 2017 7:48 pm 
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waverider wrote:
GSx wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
Put it this way: if we can't beat Tulsa, are there four other teams remaining on our schedule who are worse and more likely for us to beat? No. There are three.

Beat Tulsa.

That's true, and it would be a tougher road; still the other teams on this schedule are not THAT daunting (except for USF) that we couldn't win.
I remember in 2002 - we lost to a terrible Army team when we needed the W, and then whipped USM the next week.

I agree with you. USF will be the toughest game on our schedule, as I've said before, if for no other reason than they have a more athletic two deep than us. With our defense combined with a little more life from the offense Fritz is correct in saying there are 8 games on our schedule we can win. (He's also correct in saying we could lose all 8 if we lose focus and don't play well). Winning this week could lead to winning one more game than anticipated.

Oh, I agree, it could happen. We could lose to Tulsa and win all the rest. But if we can't beat Tulsa and their terrible defense, we're not likely to beat four other teams to become bowl eligible, because if our offense can't score enough to beat Tulsa, they're likely not scoring enough to upset anyone.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 06, 2017 7:31 am 
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Agreed. For better or worse this isn’t 2014s schedule. There are no North Texases on the schedule to make up for a loss to Southern Alabama.

Also, we beat Tulsa that year.


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