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 Post subject: H-Town
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:46 am 
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Houston 9.5 favorites

ESPN has Houaton at 69.8% likely to win. Much less of a “favorite” than we were against Cincy and ECU

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Last edited by WaveProf on Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:22 am 
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Line in The Advocate has the line at 9.


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:41 am 
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FTW tweeted either 9 or 9.5 last night.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:42 am 
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Seems more accurate. Odd shark has some crazy Sunday lines that shift big time when the official line comes out Sunday night or Monday midday

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 6:49 pm 
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While I still think Houston is beatable, it will have to be with something other than the dive up the middle at Ed Oliver. I'm not saying to abandon the offense, but we will need extra help blocking Oliver if we want to run.

Houston had a bye this week. That could be good or bad. Good if they take a while to get going, but, they had an extra week to prepare for our already predictable offense and they will likely have few wrinkles that will confuse our already confusable defense :?

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:02 pm 
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wr....agree in a way. We WILL be able to run if we utilize all our weapons. Oliver won’t be able to cover Jones, while stopping Clewis, while stopping Robertson and then protect against the qb option w Banks AND the jet sweep w Badie....and on top of all that stop Hilliard.
Keep it multiple and wide open and we will move the ball.


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 8:11 pm 
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1401973 wrote:
wr....agree in a way. We WILL be able to run if we utilize all our weapons. Oliver won’t be able to cover Jones, while stopping Clewis, while stopping Robertson and then protect against the qb option w Banks AND the jet sweep w Badie....and on top of all that stop Hilliard.
Keep it multiple and wide open and we will move the ball.

I agree.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 11:00 pm 
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I'm optimistic. Chris Scelfo is their O-Line Coach.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:41 am 
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I was doing a little digging to see if we have any kind of edge in this game. Houston's run defense is pretty good. They only allow ~140 rush yards per game. On the other hand, their pass defense is one of the worst in the country. They rank 124th out of 130 teams giving up 296 yards per game. If ever we should open the playbook and let Banks throw, this is the week.

Motivation wise, Houston may not have much to play for besides pride and another win. They are already bowl bound at 6-3, but they are unlikely to catch Memphis in the AAC West. They'd need Memphis to lose twice in order to have a chance and Memphis still has ECU on the schedule. So likely they aren't playing for any conference hardware and they aren't in danger of missing a bowl. Maybe that tips the motivation balance in our favor?

It would be so nice to have our last regular season game be meaningful. Make it be so!


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:47 am 
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QuarterbackU wrote:
I'm optimistic. Chris Scelfo is their O-Line Coach.


As much to be optimistic about than anything! May we get about 5 sacks.

tulaneoutlaw wrote:
the other hand, their pass defense is one of the worst in the country. They rank 124th out of 130 teams giving up 296 yards per game.

Waiting on FW to chime in, who has guaranteed us this victory back in August.

If only we were a passing team. All the more reason to throw to the RBs in space.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:52 am 
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Rotorooter wrote:
If only we were a passing team. All the more reason to throw to the RBs in space.

We don't need to be a passing team, nor do I wish we were. I simply wished we ran the wide variety of running plays available to us, actually ran the option more than once or twice a game, and passed as much as this offense allows us to do (which is more than we do), because the combination of all of that would make for a killer offense. And suddenly the runs up the middle the OC loves would garner 5-7 yards because they'd have to defend so much. Alas, we'll run up the middle on the first play of the game and about 70% of the plays thereafter.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:07 am 
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WaveProf wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:
If only we were a passing team. All the more reason to throw to the RBs in space.

We don't need to be a passing team, nor do I wish we were. I simply wished we ran the wide variety of running plays available to us, actually ran the option more than once or twice a game, and passed as much as this offense allows us to do (which is more than we do), because the combination of all of that would make for a killer offense. And suddenly the runs up the middle the OC loves would garner 5-7 yards because they'd have to defend so much. Alas, we'll run up the middle on the first play of the game and about 70% of the plays thereafter.


I should have said, "more of a passing team." Like 50/50 in yardage. I'd take 40/60. Go look at the last time we had that ratio--1998. While I agree with your statement about running the option more outside than we have, I do wish we had a short passing-game playbook that we could fall back on. Right now, we don't. And anytime you can get playmakers like Hilliard in space, so much the better--be it a pass or option run. Right now, teams key on him for the inside/off-tackle stuff, so he doesn't get out in space often enough, he has to be a decoy until things loosen up inside. Limits his effectiveness. Basically, defenses are playing to "Hilliard won't beat us, someone else in that offense has to." That philosophy is working. And we continue to play into that. He can get 188 yds. against an ECU; everyone else with a competent defense, not so much.

If we try to run Hilliard 25 times inside against UH, we lose. Big.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:21 pm 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
Houston's run defense is pretty good. They only allow ~140 rush yards per game


What has slightly skewed their stats is having played 4 of the most prolific passing offenses in country so far: Texas Tech, Memphis, SMU, & ECU. Also Temple, Tulsa and S Florida can sling it. Also Houston having played 3 of the worst rushing offenses in the country, Temple, ECU and Texas Tech.

As all have said, more diverse and multiple and spread the ball to other GOOD players like Jones, Clewis, Ardoin, Robertson, etc. That along with actually running the option would do wonders.

I don't think we should be afraid here. It's doable.


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 12:24 pm 
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We know our team's bad side but Houston got beat up bad by Tulsa.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:25 pm 
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1401973 wrote:
wr....agree in a way. We WILL be able to run if we utilize all our weapons. Oliver won’t be able to cover Jones, while stopping Clewis, while stopping Robertson and then protect against the qb option w Banks AND the jet sweep w Badie....and on top of all that stop Hilliard.
Keep it multiple and wide open and we will move the ball.

Jet sweep to Badie? Do we run that?


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 5:54 pm 
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The Badie jet sweep was just an example off the top of my head. He has lined up as the widest split receiver and gone in motion, but may not have been given the ball on a jet sweep. Don't recall. Not important.

Take this in: Badie's only caught 2 passes this year and last. He is very rarely targeted. That is under-utilizing a talent in space, IMO. BTW, he had 27 catches in 2015 (I know a different O).

Pass rush you say? When was the last screen pass called when Badie is in the backfield?

And you all know this isn't just about 3. We have other guys who are ready, willing and able to get the job done. Let's see if we can (incrementally) use them more frequently Sat.

Come on coaches! Open it up a bit more! Spread it a bit more! You'll love what it will do for your running game!


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:17 pm 
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long green wrote:
We know our team's bad side but Houston got beat up bad by Tulsa.

That's the thing, isn't it? We're Jekyll and Hyde but we've only seen Hyde for the last 5 games (yes, I'm including a win as ugly). At some point we all just keep waiting for Tulsa Jekyll to return. If it returns in either of the last two games, there is no doubt we beat either of those teams. But the longer Hyde remains, the more we start to believe that's our true personality and that Jekyll was a one-time anomaly.


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:31 pm 
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1401973 wrote:
The Badie jet sweep was just an example off the top of my head. He has lined up as the widest split receiver and gone in motion, but may not have been given the ball on a jet sweep. Don't recall. Not important.

Take this in: Badie's only caught 2 passes this year and last. He is very rarely targeted. That is under-utilizing a talent in space, IMO. BTW, he had 27 catches in 2015 (I know a different O).

Pass rush you say? When was the last screen pass called when Badie is in the backfield?

And you all know this isn't just about 3. We have other guys who are ready, willing and able to get the job done. Let's see if we can (incrementally) use them more frequently Sat.

Come on coaches! Open it up a bit more! Spread it a bit more! You'll love what it will do for your running game!


We seem to be really bad at screen passes.


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:03 am 
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visualmagic wrote:
1401973 wrote:
The Badie jet sweep was just an example off the top of my head. He has lined up as the widest split receiver and gone in motion, but may not have been given the ball on a jet sweep. Don't recall. Not important.

Take this in: Badie's only caught 2 passes this year and last. He is very rarely targeted. That is under-utilizing a talent in space, IMO. BTW, he had 27 catches in 2015 (I know a different O).

Pass rush you say? When was the last screen pass called when Badie is in the backfield?

And you all know this isn't just about 3. We have other guys who are ready, willing and able to get the job done. Let's see if we can (incrementally) use them more frequently Sat.

Come on coaches! Open it up a bit more! Spread it a bit more! You'll love what it will do for your running game!


We seem to be really bad at screen passes.

And for multiple reasons. Banks doesn't look good at making short passes in the flat and we don't have the OL to run screen passes effectively. We had a conversation at work about the Saints and how they were screen pass masters and that they are getting back to running more of them. I reasoned that it coincides with the resurgence of the OL which is every bit as important as the QB and RB in those plays.

Of course we would likely be called for ineligible man downfield if we ran one :?

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:10 am 
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waverider wrote:
visualmagic wrote:
1401973 wrote:
The Badie jet sweep was just an example off the top of my head. He has lined up as the widest split receiver and gone in motion, but may not have been given the ball on a jet sweep. Don't recall. Not important.

Take this in: Badie's only caught 2 passes this year and last. He is very rarely targeted. That is under-utilizing a talent in space, IMO. BTW, he had 27 catches in 2015 (I know a different O).

Pass rush you say? When was the last screen pass called when Badie is in the backfield?

And you all know this isn't just about 3. We have other guys who are ready, willing and able to get the job done. Let's see if we can (incrementally) use them more frequently Sat.

Come on coaches! Open it up a bit more! Spread it a bit more! You'll love what it will do for your running game!


We seem to be really bad at screen passes.

And for multiple reasons. Banks doesn't look good at making short passes in the flat and we don't have the OL to run screen passes effectively. We had a conversation at work about the Saints and how they were screen pass masters and that they are getting back to running more of them. I reasoned that it coincides with the resurgence of the OL which is every bit as important as the QB and RB in those plays.

Of course we would likely be called for ineligible man downfield if we ran one :?


That would be on Banks, not the OL


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 8:17 am 
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waverider wrote:
Banks doesn't look good at making short passes in the flat


Not sure I agree with that. If anything, we don't have enough data to make that statement. Even if true, it is easily taught.

I agree about the assessment about screen passes, though. The OL just isn't able to "sell" it and they just aren't adept at it.

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 9:12 am 
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windywave wrote:
waverider wrote:
visualmagic wrote:
1401973 wrote:
The Badie jet sweep was just an example off the top of my head. He has lined up as the widest split receiver and gone in motion, but may not have been given the ball on a jet sweep. Don't recall. Not important.

Take this in: Badie's only caught 2 passes this year and last. He is very rarely targeted. That is under-utilizing a talent in space, IMO. BTW, he had 27 catches in 2015 (I know a different O).

Pass rush you say? When was the last screen pass called when Badie is in the backfield?

And you all know this isn't just about 3. We have other guys who are ready, willing and able to get the job done. Let's see if we can (incrementally) use them more frequently Sat.

Come on coaches! Open it up a bit more! Spread it a bit more! You'll love what it will do for your running game!


We seem to be really bad at screen passes.

And for multiple reasons. Banks doesn't look good at making short passes in the flat and we don't have the OL to run screen passes effectively. We had a conversation at work about the Saints and how they were screen pass masters and that they are getting back to running more of them. I reasoned that it coincides with the resurgence of the OL which is every bit as important as the QB and RB in those plays.

Of course we would likely be called for ineligible man downfield if we ran one :?


That would be on Banks, not the OL

Well, it would be on the refs

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 12:59 pm 
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1401973 wrote:
The Badie jet sweep was just an example off the top of my head. He has lined up as the widest split receiver and gone in motion, but may not have been given the ball on a jet sweep. Don't recall. Not important.

Take this in: Badie's only caught 2 passes this year and last. He is very rarely targeted. That is under-utilizing a talent in space, IMO. BTW, he had 27 catches in 2015 (I know a different O).

Pass rush you say? When was the last screen pass called when Badie is in the backfield?

And you all know this isn't just about 3. We have other guys who are ready, willing and able to get the job done. Let's see if we can (incrementally) use them more frequently Sat.

Come on coaches! Open it up a bit more! Spread it a bit more! You'll love what it will do for your running game!

While recognizing that Hilliard is our best player on O, I've long been a proponent of giving Badie the ball more.


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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:34 pm 
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ml wave wrote:
1401973 wrote:
The Badie jet sweep was just an example off the top of my head. He has lined up as the widest split receiver and gone in motion, but may not have been given the ball on a jet sweep. Don't recall. Not important.

Take this in: Badie's only caught 2 passes this year and last. He is very rarely targeted. That is under-utilizing a talent in space, IMO. BTW, he had 27 catches in 2015 (I know a different O).

Pass rush you say? When was the last screen pass called when Badie is in the backfield?

And you all know this isn't just about 3. We have other guys who are ready, willing and able to get the job done. Let's see if we can (incrementally) use them more frequently Sat.

Come on coaches! Open it up a bit more! Spread it a bit more! You'll love what it will do for your running game!

While recognizing that Hilliard is our best player on O, I've long been a proponent of giving Badie the ball more.


Watch the first few possessions of the OU game. The running scheme we used that day seems different from the one we use now. It definitely challenges the edges more.






Note: Edited for you. You needed to delete the s at the end of "https:" and delete all the extraneous garbage after the "&" symbols.
here's what your original looked like:
Code:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8WomxxVQP0&index=4&list=PLogxNmIeYKJM98Ty6juRiLga97XyYGM-z

Now, it's just:
Code:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k8WomxxVQP0

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 Post subject: Re: H-Town
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 6:19 pm 
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OK guys, I'm disappearing (mostly) for about 11 days. Win a couple of football games in my absence, please?
See y'all after turkey day

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