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 Post subject: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:17 pm 
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Hardly a high benchmark, but worth thinking about for perspective:

CBT had 2 in 5 years

CCJ had 1 in 4 years

CWF has 2 in 2 years



That isn’t—and can’t be—the bench mark. But it’s worth remembering when we talk about where we are and where we’ve been

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:25 pm 
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WaveProf wrote:
Hardly a high benchmark, but worth thinking about for perspective:

CBT had 2 in 5 years

CCJ had 1 in 4 years

CWF has 2 in 2 years



That isn’t—and can’t be—the bench mark. But it’s worth remembering when we talk about where we are and where we’ve been

Rick Dickson approves

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sat Nov 11, 2017 11:32 pm 
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GSx wrote:
WaveProf wrote:
Hardly a high benchmark, but worth thinking about for perspective:

CBT had 2 in 5 years

CCJ had 1 in 4 years

CWF has 2 in 2 years



That isn’t—and can’t be—the bench mark. But it’s worth remembering when we talk about where we are and where we’ve been

Rick Dickson approves


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:37 am 
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Frightening young children is not appropriate.... we should have a poster burning fundraiser...


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:04 am 
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Man, that is a brutal stat prof. Really puts this Program in perspective. Wow.

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:09 am 
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GreenieBacker wrote:
Man, that is a brutal stat prof. Really puts this Program in perspective. Wow.

That was my point. My point was simply that when people think we haven't "improved", I think they are misremembering just how bad we've been. We clearly have improved. Just not far/fast enough. It doesn't mean we are at an acceptable level, we aren't. And if people want to argue against Fritz because he hasn't improved far/fast enough that may be fair (that's a separate debate). This stat isn't meant to refute that. It's simply meant to refute those who say we aren't getting better at all.

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:18 am 
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gerryb323 wrote:
GSx wrote:
WaveProf wrote:
Hardly a high benchmark, but worth thinking about for perspective:

CBT had 2 in 5 years

CCJ had 1 in 4 years

CWF has 2 in 2 years



That isn’t—and can’t be—the bench mark. But it’s worth remembering when we talk about where we are and where we’ve been

Rick Dickson approves


Image

Man, that's creepy looking.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:01 pm 
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Something else to consider, (as others have pointed out) all of the top programs in the AAC had coaches that only won 4-9 games their first two seasons in the American (Fuente, Taggart, Rhule) and some of those took over already decent programs.

If I was grouping coaches, I'd have Fritz in a group with those I've mentioned more so than in a class of Toledo and Johnson. Next season should be the reasonable "forward step" judged season.

To quote the national "experts", "Year 3 is when you know if the coach you've hired is the right guy for the job".

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:35 pm 
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I don’t know if next year will really be the season to judge WF’s progress. Our out of conference schedule includes Wake Forest, UAB, and Ohio State. Our defense completely turns over. Can anyone here make an argument we will be better defensely with the depth returning (someone please make an argument)? Is there an argument we could be much worse (btw, I don’t like this new scheme at all)? We need a quality kicker. Will our OL be any better? Can someone replace Hilliard’s production? These are all valid questions playing a much stronger schedule. I just don’t see next year as the evaluation year. I would give WF a pass next year and make year 4 the year to measure substantial improvement.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:41 pm 
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sr wrote:
gerryb323 wrote:
GSx wrote:
WaveProf wrote:
Hardly a high benchmark, but worth thinking about for perspective:

CBT had 2 in 5 years

CCJ had 1 in 4 years

CWF has 2 in 2 years



That isn’t—and can’t be—the bench mark. But it’s worth remembering when we talk about where we are and where we’ve been

Rick Dickson approves


<picture redacted>

Man, that's creepy looking.
Careful...if we repeat this picture 5 times, he will return, like Candyman.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 12:42 pm 
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I'm not sure how many we would've won this year under Toledo or Johnson. Probably lose all we ones we lost and we certainly don't beat Army or probably ECU either. Would we have had the same offensive explosion vs Tulsa? It wouldn't surprise me if I could peek at the alternate timeline to see us at 2-8, with wins over Grambling & FIU.

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 3:50 pm 
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tjtlja wrote:
I don’t know if next year will really be the season to judge WF’s progress. Our out of conference schedule includes Wake Forest, UAB, and Ohio State. Our defense completely turns over. Can anyone here make an argument we will be better defensely with the depth returning (someone please make an argument)? Is there an argument we could be much worse (btw, I don’t like this new scheme at all)? We need a quality kicker. Will our OL be any better? Can someone replace Hilliard’s production? These are all valid questions playing a much stronger schedule. I just don’t see next year as the evaluation year. I would give WF a pass next year and make year 4 the year to measure substantial improvement.

You might be right about that as it may take another recruiting class to get the types of players Fritz wants and needs. I worry that another 3 or 4 win season next year makes the mountain to climb that much higher.

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"It's my job to prepare the coaches. It's their job is to prepare the players and the players' job is to play lights out." Willie Fritz

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 4:14 pm 
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It's a long way until next year. We had Wake Forest on the ropes just last season and UAB may or may not be as good next year. Even if our ooc is tough, that just means we need to win in conference which is a key to sustained success anyway.

In 2019, we play a quality schedule that will test our progress. Anything less than a bowl in Year 3 isn't progress and isn't satisfactory. The coaches in year 3 should be finding ways to win with what they've brought in and what they have on hand. That's my expectation and should be that of other fans as well.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:28 pm 
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It is going to take two more recruiting classes to get Tulane competitive at a level we need to be. One recruiting class just does not fill the player needs unless JC players can be found in numbers and that has not happened in a very long time in my memory. Thus, it will likely be two years from now when things move to a higher level. Nonetheless, this team is much better than two years ago under CJ.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:33 pm 
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I say how about 18 wins in two seasons? Tommy Bowden.

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:47 pm 
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Dreaming is free

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 5:52 pm 
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If you want to turn a program around, then you have to study the program's who have done it. One of the #1 keys other than great coaching is the schedule. On year 1 of the rebuild you don't go start scheduling Ohio state, ou etc every yr. you should do the opposite. It builds confidence with the fans and players and recruiting starts to pick up when have wins on the wall and bowl games. We should be scheduling all gimmes in non conference to get this train rolling. Then when you are ready a few yrs later and your confidence is sky high, then you schedule a p5 with the goal to beat them not just roll over because you aren't ready yet.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:49 pm 
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RollWaveRoll wrote:
If you want to turn a program around, then you have to study the program's who have done it. One of the #1 keys other than great coaching is the schedule. On year 1 of the rebuild you don't go start scheduling Ohio state, ou etc every yr. you should do the opposite. It builds confidence with the fans and players and recruiting starts to pick up when have wins on the wall and bowl games. We should be scheduling all gimmes in non conference to get this train rolling. Then when you are ready a few yrs later and your confidence is sky high, then you schedule a p5 with the goal to beat them not just roll over because you aren't ready yet.


RWR, you make a really good argument. Fans and players view winning and bowls as some giant leap in progression no matter who you are actually playing. The year CJ took us to a bowl we were playing a borderline Div. 1AA schedule. You have a very valid point. The fans hate those schedules but the end result far outweighs the negatives.

If our out of conference schedule this year would have been Grambling, Rice, Army, and Charlotte, I think we would be sitting at 6-4 at the very least and the fans would be delirious. We would be going bowling and the fanbase plus recruiting would get a much needed boost. Your argument is very difficult to argue against given where we are as a program. I guess the real question comes down to money. Is a winning right now more important than the pay days Oklahoma and Ohio State produce? I say winning is more important.


Last edited by tjtlja on Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 6:59 pm 
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Juxtapose the above argument about dumbing down the schedule with all the complaining done not that long ago about doing just that. The counter argument was that no one wants to see Charlotte, et al, so the stands are empty. Discuss.

While we are at it...Louisiana-centered vs. national recruiting. Discuss.

Throw in scrimmages, uniforms and food and we have the last ten years of YOGWF!

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:10 pm 
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RollWaveRoll wrote:
If you want to turn a program around, then you have to study the program's who have done it. One of the #1 keys other than great coaching is the schedule. On year 1 of the rebuild you don't go start scheduling Ohio state, ou etc every yr. you should do the opposite. It builds confidence with the fans and players and recruiting starts to pick up when have wins on the wall and bowl games. We should be scheduling all gimmes in non conference to get this train rolling. Then when you are ready a few yrs later and your confidence is sky high, then you schedule a p5 with the goal to beat them not just roll over because you aren't ready yet.

Basically what we've done; year 1 we played U Mass, ULL and Wake. Year 2 we stepped it up a bit, but not too much, with OU, Army and FIU. Year 3 looks similar, maybe a little tougher.

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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:37 pm 
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TUPF wrote:
Juxtapose the above argument about dumbing down the schedule with all the complaining done not that long ago about doing just that. The counter argument was that no one wants to see Charlotte, et al, so the stands are empty. Discuss.

While we are at it...Louisiana-centered vs. national recruiting. Discuss.

Throw in scrimmages, uniforms and food and we have the last ten years of YOGWF!


Excellent synopsis (lol).

In order (after 50 years of deep study) -

1. I want winning. The fans will come.
2. National recruiting where we can find on the radar kids.
3. Scrimmages - in baseball, yes.
4. Uniforms - don’t care as long as they fit.
5. Food - any place that serves it.
6. I will add facilities - yes; alcohol - yes; Rick Jones - a big yes; Dickson/Cowen - a gigantic NO.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 7:55 pm 
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Just finished prepping the garden for fall planting like...

gerryb323 wrote:

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"It's my job to prepare the coaches. It's their job is to prepare the players and the players' job is to play lights out." Willie Fritz

"If you want to win you have to have good players." Vince Gibson


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 10:09 pm 
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tjtlja wrote:
RollWaveRoll wrote:
If you want to turn a program around, then you have to study the program's who have done it. One of the #1 keys other than great coaching is the schedule. On year 1 of the rebuild you don't go start scheduling Ohio state, ou etc every yr. you should do the opposite. It builds confidence with the fans and players and recruiting starts to pick up when have wins on the wall and bowl games. We should be scheduling all gimmes in non conference to get this train rolling. Then when you are ready a few yrs later and your confidence is sky high, then you schedule a p5 with the goal to beat them not just roll over because you aren't ready yet.

RWR, you make a really good argument. Fans and players view winning and bowls as some giant leap in progression no matter who you are actually playing. The year CJ took us to a bowl we were playing a borderline Div. 1AA schedule. You have a very valid point. The fans hate those schedules but the end result far outweighs the negatives.

If our out of conference schedule this year would have been Grambling, Rice, Army, and Charlotte, I think we would be sitting at 6-4 at the very least and the fans would be delirious. We would be going bowling and the fanbase plus recruiting would get a much needed boost. Your argument is very difficult to argue against given where we are as a program. I guess the real question comes down to money. Is a winning right now more important than the pay days Oklahoma and Ohio State produce? I say winning is more important.

Except this whole argument falls apart because schedules in football are made years in advance. So unless you are willing and able to try to cancel or reschedule games that are already under contract (which usually costs money), you get what you get from the previous administration in your first year or two, save for a spot here or there which might not have been booked already.

Coaches who really want to climb the ladder don't just take jobs because they want a job, they look at who they'll be playing right off the bat and who they have on the roster. I've always said that when Bowden was looking at this job, he saw the roster full of freshmen and sophomores who already had playing experience, then looked at the already-scheduled games for the next few years, and he knew before he signed that he'd have a chance to do something special in year two with a bunch of good Seniors and a cupcake schedule, and then he'd be out. People in the know can tell me I'm wrong but I'll believe until I die that he never had any intention of staying more than two years, before he ever took pen to paper on his contract.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:25 pm 
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Bowden said that himself. He said he asked his father about taking the job and he told him, "look at the schedule...you can win there. You aren't playing LSU, Alabama, Florida State, etc." So Bowden accepted.


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 Post subject: Re: 4+ wins
PostPosted: Mon Nov 13, 2017 12:41 am 
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Larry Smith took 4 years, and many were calling for his head.


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