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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:03 am 
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https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... ule-roster

I don't have time to summarize now, but read it. Will try to do some bullets later.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:32 am 
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All in the headline and sub-headline:

Quote:
Tulane is moving closer to its breakthrough year
Willie Fritz doesn’t typically need long to get a program rolling, but his Green Wave defense might still hold him back in 2018.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:37 am 
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Good job by them.

The most interesting point they make is that the schedule doesn’t look like it’s breaking our way this year. I dispute their take that Memphis is out of reach at home, but their argument is good. To get to a bowl we have to do it on the road, which means winning 2 of 3 out of Cincy, UAB, & Tulsa. After last year Tulsa should be really up for us but Montgomery might be in an irreversible decline. Cincy should have gone 1-11 but ought to not be as bad, & who knows with UAB.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:52 am 
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Good read. The schedule really doesn't break our way. Based on their projections, we are only favored in two games with Tulsa a 50-50 toss up. That said, it's time to start overcoming things like the schedule not being ideal. I think we surprise and win 8 games. This time we really are ready to turn the corner.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 11:55 am 
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They do a really thorough job for it being a free-to-read site. As opposed to some of those other sites where they do lazy stuff like writing a paragraph about the promise of someone who already transferred out.

I would have said Wake Forest at home is a win except I notice they have them ranked #34. Are they expected to be that good this year? I think it's beneficial for us to be playing them first, they don't know what we have and our "unconventional" offense is tough to prepare for. I think we win at Cincinnati and UAB. Not sure about Tulsa but it's certainly doable. Man, I'd love to be 4-0 heading to Columbus.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:02 pm 
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Tulsa on the road can’t be chalked up as a W but Todd Graham doesn’t work there anymore.

I bet I watched Wake last year more than most on here & while I wouldn’t pick them #34 they are really solid. They are not very likely to get the same sort of production out of their QB slot but they didn’t lose much else. They’re pretty physical and have a good, quick slot guy WR.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:21 pm 
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Wake was easily a top 40 team by the second half of last year. They did lose their QB (who was their best player the two games I saw of them), but not a lot else. I'm not saying we can't beat them. But this isn't your grandfather's Wake team.

That said, we should have beaten them 2 years ago. And we have improved a lot since then too (not just them)

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:08 pm 
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Wake's 2017 schedule and results. they were just not good enough that no one really noticed just how good they were. Look both at their wins and their margin of losses to some really good teams

http://www.fbschedules.com/ncaa-17/2017 ... hedule.php

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:20 pm 
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Their win over NC State should have been an impressive loss to NC State but a Pack runner fumbled on his way into the end zone. If they had played BC late in the year I don’t think they beat them 34-10. BC improved more over the season than anyone else in the ACC. I don’t put much stock in their bowl win. Solid and physical; their Grobe MO has carried over into a new regime. The thing about their 2017 that makes them project as a tough opponent is not their peaks but their lack of stinkers.

Dave Clawson is the coach LSU needs but doesn’t have the guts to hire. He nearly killed his own career leaving Richmond to be Phil Fulmer’s OC for a year.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:45 pm 
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PeteRasche wrote:
I think it's beneficial for us to be playing them first, they don't know what we have and our "unconventional" offense is tough to prepare for.

But they have all offseason to prepare for it?


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 2:35 pm 
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long green wrote:
Dave Clawson is the coach LSU needs but doesn’t have the guts to hire. He nearly killed his own career leaving Richmond to be Phil Fulmer’s OC for a year.


Back when Clawson was at Richmond, I though he would have been a great hire here. Oh, well.

Wake will be a struggle because their offense will test our D's youngsters' assignment focus. they aren't flashy, but they do what they are taught.

I think Tulsa is the game to watch. If we beat Tulsa on the road, in a game they will already have made a priority for them to win, we go bowling. I assume that a team capable of pulling that one off will have strong performances against Wake and Cincy.

I am most worried about keeping Banks healthy in Columbus (and at Tulsa, for slightly different reasons).


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:04 pm 
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I like our chances against Wake. Their QB is not a thrower, but more of a running QB who throws when he has to--kind of like Banks early-2017. I saw them play GT live, and they could not stop GT's offense. While not necessarily a carbon-copy of GT, we have similar misdirection and straight-option plays, and our QB is a better thrower/runner than GT had last season. Nickerson shutdown their all-ACC WR in 2016; if we can do that again, we'll win.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 3:33 pm 
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ml wave wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
I think it's beneficial for us to be playing them first, they don't know what we have and our "unconventional" offense is tough to prepare for.

But they have all offseason to prepare for it?

What I mean is we were so inconsistent last year that there's really nothing to go on. We passed more late in the year, but does another year in the system for Banks and different backs mean we run more option now? They don't know. After even one game, they'd have an idea, so I like we play them first.

But I appreciate your continued efforts to question every single post I make without an original thought of your own.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:36 pm 
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Rotorooter wrote:
I like our chances against Wake. Their QB is not a thrower, but more of a running QB who throws when he has to--kind of like Banks early-2017. I saw them play GT live, and they could not stop GT's offense. While not necessarily a carbon-copy of GT, we have similar misdirection and straight-option plays, and our QB is a better thrower/runner than GT had last season. Nickerson shutdown their all-ACC WR in 2016; if we can do that again, we'll win.


Their QB graduated so we get the newbie in his first start. They also lost some of their good receivers and some defensive players that will be drafted.

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Last edited by wavedom on Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:36 pm 
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Interesting read....but I remember reading their 2017 preview. They gave us a more than 50% win probability in two games Grambling and Army with Fla Intl at 50%.
As the year progressed and we kept covering the spread week after week, their projections got better and better.

This year, same thing. Favored in two games, 50% in one and the rest we are underdogs.

I fully expect us to continue to be underrated and continue to cover if not start to win some of these close games.

I see solid chances at wins as Nicholls, UAB, Cincy, SMU, Tulsa, ECU and Navy.
Houston, USF, Memphis and Wake will be tough.
And Ohio St will be a beautiful payday.

As to the schedule not falling our way we played 8 bowl teams last year - 5 were away. Looking back - THAT was a tough schedule.
This year's schedule looks (to me) like we will play 6 bowl teams: Wake, Ohio st, Memphis, USF, Houston and Navy with UAB being a possible 7th.
I think the rosiest projection would put us at 3-3 at our 1st break after Wake, Nicholls, @UAB, @Ohio St, Memphis and @Cincy. Then two huge games that will determine whether we go bowling: SMU at home and at Tulsa. I expect a sweep.

Better OL play, 1 more starting corner and keeping Banks healthy (admittedly three gigantic things) are the keys, IMO.


Last edited by 1401973 on Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:38 pm 
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As to our offense we cut way back on the triple option portion of the offense late last year. We started throwing more and started doing better. There really wasn't any of it used in the spring game. Maybe they were hiding it but I think we'll pick up where we left off based on comments by Fritz and Banks during spring practice.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:40 pm 
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PeteRasche wrote:
They do a really thorough job for it being a free-to-read site. As opposed to some of those other sites where they do lazy stuff like writing a paragraph about the promise of someone who already transferred out.

I would have said Wake Forest at home is a win except I notice they have them ranked #34. Are they expected to be that good this year? I think it's beneficial for us to be playing them first, they don't know what we have and our "unconventional" offense is tough to prepare for. I think we win at Cincinnati and UAB. Not sure about Tulsa but it's certainly doable. Man, I'd love to be 4-0 heading to Columbus.


If we're 4-0 we'll have beaten Ohio State. :green wink:

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:19 pm 
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Bill C does a bang-up job looking in depth at EVERY FBS team when most every other national outlet only looks at the P5s. His stuff shouldn't be free.

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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:19 pm 
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wavedom wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
They do a really thorough job for it being a free-to-read site. As opposed to some of those other sites where they do lazy stuff like writing a paragraph about the promise of someone who already transferred out.

I would have said Wake Forest at home is a win except I notice they have them ranked #34. Are they expected to be that good this year? I think it's beneficial for us to be playing them first, they don't know what we have and our "unconventional" offense is tough to prepare for. I think we win at Cincinnati and UAB. Not sure about Tulsa but it's certainly doable. Man, I'd love to be 4-0 heading to Columbus.


If we're 4-0 we'll have beaten Ohio State. :green wink:
Heh, wish I could say "heading BACK FROM Columbus", but I really meant 3-0. 8)


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 5:40 pm 
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With all those positive statements, why do they only project us with only 4.9 wins?


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 6:37 pm 
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Roller, if your question wasn’t rhetorical, the answer is he questions our DL. Also suggests how tenuous each game will be. I think he is suggesting this year will be like ‘17: lots of close games and lots of similar results. But suggests progress.


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PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2018 10:21 pm 
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1401973 wrote:
Roller, if your question wasn’t rhetorical, the answer is he questions our DL. Also suggests how tenuous each game will be. I think he is suggesting this year will be like ‘17: lots of close games and lots of similar results. But suggests progress.

Just on what I saw at the spring scrimmage, I think this D line could be one of the best we’ve had in a while.

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Last edited by waverider on Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:18 am, edited 1 time in total.

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:12 am 
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Just enjoyable to read an informed dispassionate analysis of Tulane. The writer did the homework. We've all become inured to reading the drive-by evaluations for any but the top 20 or 30 teams.

FWIW Willie was at the LSU game and is pumped and laser focused as usual on the task at hand. Tulane is really lucky to have him as HC. Congrats to Dannen for hiring him.


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PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:38 am 
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waverider wrote:
Just on what I saw at the spring scrimmage, I think this D line could be one of the best we’ve had in a while.

Or does that just mean our OL is worse?

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PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2018 7:39 am 
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Roller wrote:
With all those positive statements, why do they only project us with only 4.9 wins?

Because they are objective?

They very thoroughly explained why they only projected 4.9 wins btw

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