Back to the proverbial attitude, no one ever went broke betting against Tulane. As DZ implies, six points in a few days is an enormous move. I guess oddsmaker setting opening spread didn't canvas his market initially well and the pros immediately punished him.
I know it's preseason homerism but obviously there is a strong sentiment here among many that Tulane can win this game straight up.
I guess we'll see how many of us do visit Biloxi and vote with our wallets on this.
The first (and only) legal sports bet I’ve ever made was 2 years ago in Vegas. I took Tulane and the points against Wake and won. I am undefeated when betting for Tulane or against Wake Forest!
I'm still pissed about GA Tech game. Was in Vegas and we didn't cover
My rule of thumb in Vegas is to never bet on your favorite team. You can't possibly be objective. I do always make a point of betting against LSU.
That is a good rule. You can however, still be subjective and correct. Especially when you know more about your team than the odds-makers, which is every possible for some of us here.
Exactly. I was in Vegas for the first time ever in October of 2002 and bet the Wave to cover -14 against Navy because I knew we had a good offense and I felt confident we could stuff their running game enough to cover. We won 51-30. My only bet on Tulane ever (I'm not really a gambler and have no connections to a bookie or whatever).
I repeatedly seem to hear "no one ever went broke betting against Tulane", but that's a generic statement saying that if you bet Tulane to lose outright, you'd be ahead, since we've been so bad for so long. But Vegas misses on us fairly often, at least early in the year, probably because they aren't quite as invested in what's happening with the team as us. I'd say that if someone who was a regular here was a gambler and had no qualms about betting against us when they felt it appropriate, they probably would do well. I believe just in the last couple of years we were one of the top teams in the nation in covering the spread (regardless of whether we won or lost outright). Heck, we probably did pretty well last year against it (without going to look)... it took Vegas a couple of weeks to pick up on when we started "getting our act together" midseason. Weren't we a fairly-large underdog against Tulsa?
Back to the proverbial attitude, no one ever went broke betting against Tulane. As DZ implies, six points in a few days is an enormous move. I guess oddsmaker setting opening spread didn't canvas his market initially well and the pros immediately punished him.
I know it's preseason homerism but obviously there is a strong sentiment here among many that Tulane can win this game straight up.
I guess we'll see how many of us do visit Biloxi and vote with our wallets on this.
The first (and only) legal sports bet I’ve ever made was 2 years ago in Vegas. I took Tulane and the points against Wake and won. I am undefeated when betting for Tulane or against Wake Forest!
I'm still pissed about GA Tech game. Was in Vegas and we didn't cover
My rule of thumb in Vegas is to never bet on your favorite team. You can't possibly be objective. I do always make a point of betting against LSU.
IIRC it was a frick 40 plus spread. AND WE DID NOT COVER. I mean come on.
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
Back to the proverbial attitude, no one ever went broke betting against Tulane. As DZ implies, six points in a few days is an enormous move. I guess oddsmaker setting opening spread didn't canvas his market initially well and the pros immediately punished him.
I know it's preseason homerism but obviously there is a strong sentiment here among many that Tulane can win this game straight up.
I guess we'll see how many of us do visit Biloxi and vote with our wallets on this.
The first (and only) legal sports bet I’ve ever made was 2 years ago in Vegas. I took Tulane and the points against Wake and won. I am undefeated when betting for Tulane or against Wake Forest!
I'm still pissed about GA Tech game. Was in Vegas and we didn't cover
My rule of thumb in Vegas is to never bet on your favorite team. You can't possibly be objective. I do always make a point of betting against LSU.
That is a good rule. You can however, still be subjective and correct. Especially when you know more about your team than the odds-makers, which is every possible for some of us here.
Exactly. I was in Vegas for the first time ever in October of 2002 and bet the Wave to cover -14 against Navy because I knew we had a good offense and I felt confident we could stuff their running game enough to cover. We won 51-30. My only bet on Tulane ever (I'm not really a gambler and have no connections to a bookie or whatever).
I repeatedly seem to hear "no one ever went broke betting against Tulane", but that's a generic statement saying that if you bet Tulane to lose outright, you'd be ahead, since we've been so bad for so long. But Vegas misses on us fairly often, at least early in the year, probably because they aren't quite as invested in what's happening with the team as us. I'd say that if someone who was a regular here was a gambler and had no qualms about betting against us when they felt it appropriate, they probably would do well. I believe just in the last couple of years we were one of the top teams in the nation in covering the spread (regardless of whether we won or lost outright). Heck, we probably did pretty well last year against it (without going to look)... it took Vegas a couple of weeks to pick up on when we started "getting our act together" midseason. Weren't we a fairly-large underdog against Tulsa?
You bring up a good point. We used to have a pretty good win % against the spread that covered a few seasons. Haven’t seen any stats lately to see what our record is.
Tulane Greenbackers
"If you want to win you have to have good players." Vince Gibson
Based upon the comments from media day interviews, etc. the team seems focused on making up for the “close calls” last year. The Wake game will be pivotal. Is it all rhetoric, or reality that the Team is ready?
My money is on a win - no points. The team seems hungry and they have had a long time to think about the opportunities lost. Banks will continue to improve and the D coordinator is too good to have another mediocre year. I am only troubled by the D secondary as I did not see the kind of development I had hoped for last season on the 2nd string. Still time for them to develop if D line is “disruptive”.
Guys thanks for looking it up because I wasn't. I think your snapshot over the past five years simply shows the pros know what they are doing in setting the odds. Generally the metric is to make a living off sports betting you need to hit 55% or more on your bets. Less than that and eventually the house will probably eat you up especially since 99% of betters vary the amounts they bet. The window used in the stats above suggest a 52% or so success rate. So perhaps I will amend the woe is us phrase to saying, "No one ever earned a living betting on Tulane."
BTW in the TMI category, I do bet on sports and as a fan I never wager against Tulane. Never. I do not want to feel good when Tulane has not played well. However I pick my spots where I bet for Tulane. Generally only a couple of times a year and then a few "sentimental" bets like always when Tulane plays LSU. (Plus the local tiggers are like Yankee fans. They always way overprice their team especially against Tulane. Residual of all the 62-0's, I guess.)
Regardless thanks again for doing the homework and saving me from my internet hot takes.
For those enjoying the trip through the betting weeds, this article from today's NY Post explains why knee-jerk betting on the Yankees of the world is bad business but more important you might make money betting on "surprise" teams like the A's. (who by the way wear green. Just saying.....)
That was an interesting article. Not to sure about the third degree charge designation and all over mistaking his car for an Uber ride?? We need the rest of the story...
That was an interesting article. Not to sure about the third degree charge designation and all over mistaking his car for an Uber ride?? We need the rest of the story...
I deleted it because it was a Wake Forest MBB acoach, not football, but yes.
I keep telling my wife that life is nothing but a long collection of choices made. When you choose to punch someone and it goes very badly, that’s 30 seconds everyone involved bet that had to do over.
Fan since 1974 living in Phelps seeing the upper bowl of Tulane Stadium
That was an interesting article. Not to sure about the third degree charge designation and all over mistaking his car for an Uber ride?? We need the rest of the story...
I deleted it because it was a Wake Forest MBB acoach, not football, but yes.
I keep telling my wife that life is nothing but a long collection of choices made. When you choose to punch someone and it goes very badly, that’s 30 seconds everyone involved bet that had to do over.
If this really was an UBER mis-id, I"ve climbed in the wrong car being in a rush and I'm sure many others here have as well. I don't know who was startled more: me or the person in the car? Regardless I apologized profusely and I wasn't punched.
tulaneoutlaw wrote:I don't know, Roto, I think it's a decent bet they are the second best team on our schedule. They won eight games last year and return much of that team except for, John Wolford, the QB you mention. Memphis lost their star QB (Ferguson) and WR (Miller). Houston has Ed Oliver and D'Eriq King looks promising at QB, but they only won seven games last year and I'm not really sold on Major Applewhite. It's hard to know until the season is over, but I'd give Wake Forest at least even odds of being the second best team on our schedule by the beginning of December. This isn't the same team we played in that ugly 7-3 game a couple of years back.
That said, I do think we can win this game, especially at home. I appreciated the even handedness of the article. That's rare among "P5" schools.
On edit - I missed USF above, but they are suffering from the same things as Memphis. Their top QB, RB, and WR are all gone this season. Combined with the above, I think there's a real chance for some new teams to challenge for the top of the league. I hope Tulane will be int hat number.
Outlaw, I just saw an ACC football preview. Nary a mention of WFU and they were picked to be at the bottom of their division of the ACC. Remains to be seen if they are the second toughest, but I find it hard to believe that a bottom-dweller in the ACC, without their starting QB, will be tougher than a division-winning challenger in the AAC like Memphis, Houston or USF, even with all of their uncertainties. I just think a Memphis, for example, has a better program than WFU right now. Houston is a bigger question mark because it doesn't seem that Applewhite is a legit coach yet, less of a question with USF and Strong. But I do believe that a Memphis would whip WFU. And so will we.
tulaneoutlaw wrote:I don't know, Roto, I think it's a decent bet they are the second best team on our schedule. They won eight games last year and return much of that team except for, John Wolford, the QB you mention. Memphis lost their star QB (Ferguson) and WR (Miller). Houston has Ed Oliver and D'Eriq King looks promising at QB, but they only won seven games last year and I'm not really sold on Major Applewhite. It's hard to know until the season is over, but I'd give Wake Forest at least even odds of being the second best team on our schedule by the beginning of December. This isn't the same team we played in that ugly 7-3 game a couple of years back.
That said, I do think we can win this game, especially at home. I appreciated the even handedness of the article. That's rare among "P5" schools.
On edit - I missed USF above, but they are suffering from the same things as Memphis. Their top QB, RB, and WR are all gone this season. Combined with the above, I think there's a real chance for some new teams to challenge for the top of the league. I hope Tulane will be int hat number.
Outlaw, I just saw an ACC football preview. Nary a mention of WFU and they were picked to be at the bottom of their division of the ACC. Remains to be seen if they are the second toughest, but I find it hard to believe that a bottom-dweller in the ACC, without their starting QB, will be tougher than a division-winning challenger in the AAC like Memphis, Houston or USF, even with all of their uncertainties. I just think a Memphis, for example, has a better program than WFU right now. Houston is a bigger question mark because it doesn't seem that Applewhite is a legit coach yet, less of a question with USF and Strong. But I do believe that a Memphis would whip WFU. And so will we.
WF, Memphis, and USF all have to replace their QBs, but both Memphis and USF got 4 or 5 star grad transfers. Wake has their projected starter suspended. That does make a big difference.
Houston returns their Qb and, oh by the way the consensus best defensive player in the country. They added the younger briles as their OC.
Quote:The Good - TULANE
The Bad - LSU
THe Ugly - USM
Honorable mention - Navy
I feel like we are going in circles a bit with the whole Wake vs top schools in the AAC this season. Roto, your point about them being picked last or towards the bottom in most predictions is very valid. That division is tough. Clemson and Florida St. will likely always be on top for talent reasons alone. NC St had a good year last year but lost a ton on defense. Louisville lost an all world QB in Jackson. BC should be improved somewhat and Syracuse maybe too. My point is that I think that division will be pretty fluid compared to last year. Wake is missing their starting QB for 3 games, but the rest of their team from last year is mostly intact.
As for Poseidons point, personally I think he is way overestimating how easily teams can replace guys like Ferguson and Flowers. Sure Memphis and USF have formerly highly rated guys transferring in, but what have those guys done at the college level? They have plenty to prove in my eyes and maybe they succeed. I'm betting the both struggle a bit, especially Barnett at USF who is a totally different player than Flowers who he is replacing.
At the end of the day it's all just speculation until we start playing some games. We can't really know who falls where in the pecking order until the season ends and we see final records.
Ps, I do really like Houston's qb, King. Oliver gets all the hype, but he King could have a breakout year.
Outlaw, You've simply reminded us well that AAC is a solid league and Tulane is in a challenging division. AAC itself now needs to win .500+ in P5 matchups and then "dominate" other OOC games (however you wish to define that.)
P6 status is not a delusion but it is a very hard goal to achieve and end of day has to be done on the field including by Tulane.
tulaneoutlaw wrote:I feel like we are going in circles a bit with the whole Wake vs top schools in the AAC this season. Roto, your point about them being picked last or towards the bottom in most predictions is very valid. That division is tough. Clemson and Florida St. will likely always be on top for talent reasons alone. NC St had a good year last year but lost a ton on defense. Louisville lost an all world QB in Jackson. BC should be improved somewhat and Syracuse maybe too. My point is that I think that division will be pretty fluid compared to last year. Wake is missing their starting QB for 3 games, but the rest of their team from last year is mostly intact.
As for Poseidons point, personally I think he is way overestimating how easily teams can replace guys like Ferguson and Flowers. Sure Memphis and USF have formerly highly rated guys transferring in, but what have those guys done at the college level? They have plenty to prove in my eyes and maybe they succeed. I'm betting the both struggle a bit, especially Barnett at USF who is a totally different player than Flowers who he is replacing.
At the end of the day it's all just speculation until we start playing some games. We can't really know who falls where in the pecking order until the season ends and we see final records.
Ps, I do really like Houston's qb, King. Oliver gets all the hype, but he King could have a breakout year.
Wake lost other key players too. They lost a couple of D-linemen that got drafted along with their TE that got drafted. Also their two best LB's graduated.
Baywave1 wrote:Outlaw, You've simply reminded us well that AAC is a solid league and Tulane is in a challenging division. AAC itself now needs to win .500+ in P5 matchups and then "dominate" other OOC games (however you wish to define that.)
P6 status is not a delusion but it is a very hard goal to achieve and end of day has to be done on the field including by Tulane.
It absolutely is. Just because I think going into the year Wake might be pretty good, doesn't mean our game against them isn't a huge opportunity. We can help the league image by beating an ACC opponent. It's a game we can win and I hope we do.
And I won't be at all upset if I'm wrong and USF and Memphis are really good again too. I hope we beat them too, but having other strong teams in our league is part of the P6 push.
tulaneoutlaw wrote:
As for Poseidons point, personally I think he is way overestimating how easily teams can replace guys like Ferguson and Flowers. Sure Memphis and USF have formerly highly rated guys transferring in, but what have those guys done at the college level? They have plenty to prove in my eyes and maybe they succeed. I'm betting the both struggle a bit, especially Barnett at USF who is a totally different player than Flowers who he is replacing.
Ps, I do really like Houston's qb, King. Oliver gets all the hype, but he King could have a breakout year.
I dont think the two QBs will easily replace flowers and Ferguson. I simply think they are likely to be better replacements than wake's replacement for their QB.
I agree that King for Houston looks pretty good. When watching him after seeing Flowers I thought they were very similar. Houston will be tough.
Quote:The Good - TULANE
The Bad - LSU
THe Ugly - USM
Honorable mention - Navy
Looks like the offense will be challenging, hope we are in good enough shape to stay with the high speed “O”. QB’s seem to be competent, at least. Should be a great game. TU team has something to prove against a very viable opponent!
We need to pressure the young lads early and often, which we learned from 98, is hard to do if they are successfully executing the hi tempo “O”. It wears out the D. Looking forward to our improvements from last year!
RI WAVE wrote:Looks like the offense will be challenging, hope we are in good enough shape to stay with the high speed “O”. QB’s seem to be competent, at least. Should be a great game. TU team has something to prove against a very viable opponent!
We need to pressure the young lads early and often, which we learned from 98, is hard to do if they are successfully executing the hi tempo “O”. It wears out the D. Looking forward to our improvements from last year!
Literally the only thing in that write-up that made me concerned or jealous or worried about them being better than us is the notes about their kicker making 53- and 49-yard field goals. The rest of it is just "pro-hometown-team" media cliche.
Okay, I suppose I'm also jealous they have media that is "pro" them in their hometown. We can barely get anyone to cover us, much less positively.
PeteRasche wrote:
Okay, I suppose I'm also jealous they have media that is "pro" them in their hometown. We can barely get anyone to cover us, much less positively.
True but Wake allowed the press to cover its scrimmage while Tulane did not yesterday. In short, it pains me to say it, but it's Tulane's fault in this case.
We will see, press coverage is great for the fans. Fritz must see it as a distraction and an aid to the opposition. Who knows. I have not heard much about special teams, we were steady last year. Great transition from the past. Anyone on this forum also on campus. The team practices all summer on their own, any chance anyone saw the kicker. Has he improved his range?
He was pretty consistent except for Cincy, I know he would like that one back. Do you expect Glenn to return punts if he has settled the bobbles.
PeteRasche wrote:
Okay, I suppose I'm also jealous they have media that is "pro" them in their hometown. We can barely get anyone to cover us, much less positively.
True but Wake allowed the press to cover its scrimmage while Tulane did not yesterday. In short, it pains me to say it, but it's Tulane's fault in this case.
Pink? You can't seriously be blaming Tulane for the apathy the local media has towards Tulane, can you?
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
