It was, but that was only based on opponent win percentage I think.StPeteWave wrote:Wasn't it posted some where this year that our schedule was ranked as high as thirteenth in difficulty?
Tulane Advanced Stats
- tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Thanks for providing this information all season.tulaneoutlaw wrote:A final note here as we close out the football year. We finished the season ranked 86th in S&P+, one spot ahead of....ULL. The article below shows that along with some other notes including how awful the AAC's bowl season was and how the MAC ended up being the weakest conference this year. Worth a look if you have the time. I'll plan on doing another of these threads next year.
https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... ll-playoff
We deserve so much better
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Except Houston High has a new coach and offense
Using big words is not a personal attack
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
But maybe not D'Eriq King. And that defense is more than a one year fix. I'm not saying we'll win the West, but that ought to be the goal in year 4 and we should have a realistic shot at it.windywave wrote:Except Houston High has a new coach and offense
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.tulaneoutlaw wrote:Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.
Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?visualmagic wrote:I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.tulaneoutlaw wrote:Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.
"You're not here on scholarship to lose. I didn't recruit you to lose. Losing is abnormal; losing is unusual; losing is unacceptable. That's not what we're here for."
Bob Knight
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Apparently you don’t know what postgame win expectancy isCT Wave wrote:Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?visualmagic wrote:I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.tulaneoutlaw wrote:Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.
Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
He has a point, the post game probability is binaryvisualmagic wrote:Apparently you don’t know what postgame win expectancy isCT Wave wrote:Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?visualmagic wrote:I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.tulaneoutlaw wrote:Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
#cousins don't count
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Looks like Windy is another person who doesn't know what post game win expectancy is, congrats.
Last edited by visualmagic on Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
So is the probability not 1 or 0?visualmagic wrote:Looks like Windy is another person who doesn't know what post game win expectancy is, congrats.
Using big words is not a personal attack
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.
Postgame Win Expectancy
Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.
Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
To give an example, suppose you played a game where team A got the ball 8 times and drove 99 yards only to be stopped at the 1 on 4th down every drive. Meanwhile, team B has the ball 8 times but never never gains a yard and takes you to over time 0-0 where they win 3-0. If you looked at the box score of that game minus the actual score, you'd expect team A dominated and won in a blowout. But because of a low number of drives and an anomalous number of goal line stands, team A actually lost.
If you played that game 100 times, Team A wins 99 of them, but it just so happened the 1 time they lose is what played out. Post-game win expectancy isn't an attempt to disregard end of game results, it's an attempt to qualify how dominant or fluky the end result was.
If you played that game 100 times, Team A wins 99 of them, but it just so happened the 1 time they lose is what played out. Post-game win expectancy isn't an attempt to disregard end of game results, it's an attempt to qualify how dominant or fluky the end result was.
Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
So 1 minus the "statistic" is the luck factor?visualmagic wrote:It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.
Postgame Win Expectancy
Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.
Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
#cousins don't count
Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
I'd actually think B had a hell of a puntertulaneoutlaw wrote:To give an example, suppose you played a game where team A got the ball 8 times and drove 99 yards only to be stopped at the 1 on 4th down every drive. Meanwhile, team B has the ball 8 times but never never gains a yard and takes you to over time 0-0 where they win 3-0. If you looked at the box score of that game minus the actual score, you'd expect team A dominated and won in a blowout. But because of a low number of drives and an anomalous number of goal line stands, team A actually lost.
If you played that game 100 times, Team A wins 99 of them, but it just so happened the 1 time they lose is what played out. Post-game win expectancy isn't an attempt to disregard end of game results, it's an attempt to qualify how dominant or fluky the end result was.
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
#cousins don't count
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Postgame win expectancy=1-Luck.windywave wrote:So 1 minus the "statistic" is the luck factor?visualmagic wrote:It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.
Postgame Win Expectancy
Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.
Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.
I like it.
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Just for fun, I tweeted at Bill Connelly, who developed S&P+, about the flukiest games in terms of who won vs. post-game win expectancy this season. Here is his response:
Least likely 2018 wins, per post-game win expectancy:
1. GT > UVA (1%)
2. Navy > Memphis (2%)
3. Kansas > TCU (3%)
4. SC > Mizzou (3%)
5. UTSA > TXST (4%)
6. Colorado > Neb (4%)
7. Arizona > Cal (5%)
8. LT > UNT (7%)
9. Charlotte > USM (7%)
10. Army > Hawaii (7%)
BTW, does anybody here know how to embed tweets? I feel like I've seen them from posters before, but I've never done them myself. I don't see an html option in the posting window that would let me copy in the source code.
Least likely 2018 wins, per post-game win expectancy:
1. GT > UVA (1%)
2. Navy > Memphis (2%)
3. Kansas > TCU (3%)
4. SC > Mizzou (3%)
5. UTSA > TXST (4%)
6. Colorado > Neb (4%)
7. Arizona > Cal (5%)
8. LT > UNT (7%)
9. Charlotte > USM (7%)
10. Army > Hawaii (7%)
BTW, does anybody here know how to embed tweets? I feel like I've seen them from posters before, but I've never done them myself. I don't see an html option in the posting window that would let me copy in the source code.
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
I don't think we can embed tweets. Would need to screenshot and post as a picturetulaneoutlaw wrote:Just for fun, I tweeted at Bill Connelly, who developed S&P+, about the flukiest games in terms of who won vs. post-game win expectancy this season. Here is his response:
Least likely 2018 wins, per post-game win expectancy:
1. GT > UVA (1%)
2. Navy > Memphis (2%)
3. Kansas > TCU (3%)
4. SC > Mizzou (3%)
5. UTSA > TXST (4%)
6. Colorado > Neb (4%)
7. Arizona > Cal (5%)
8. LT > UNT (7%)
9. Charlotte > USM (7%)
10. Army > Hawaii (7%)
BTW, does anybody here know how to embed tweets? I feel like I've seen them from posters before, but I've never done them myself. I don't see an html option in the posting window that would let me copy in the source code.
Wandering around somewhere in a matchup zone
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Thanks Gerry. Mods, an html feature would be a nice add if it's possible.
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
I believe it's a restriction on the BB platform itself. It's in the FAQ that HTML code doesn't work. Eventually they'll probably have BBcode that will allow embedding like the YouTube tag.tulaneoutlaw wrote:Thanks Gerry. Mods, an html feature would be a nice add if it's possible.
Wandering around somewhere in a matchup zone
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Re: Tulane Advanced Stats
Interesting that the Navy defeat over Memphis came back around to be meaningless, after, with two weeks left, it was literally looking like it would cost Memphis a shot at the AAC West and a CG berth. Memphis was able to redeem themselves in the final two weeks by the skin of their teeth but otherwise, a 2% fluke would have cost them the berth.