Tulane Advanced Stats

Anyone can read this board. However, to post messages, you must register.
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 8867
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

StPeteWave wrote:Wasn't it posted some where this year that our schedule was ranked as high as thirteenth in difficulty?
It was, but that was only based on opponent win percentage I think.
wavedom
Regent's Circle
Posts: 5416
Joined: Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:22 pm

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by wavedom »

tulaneoutlaw wrote:A final note here as we close out the football year. We finished the season ranked 86th in S&P+, one spot ahead of....ULL. The article below shows that along with some other notes including how awful the AAC's bowl season was and how the MAC ended up being the weakest conference this year. Worth a look if you have the time. I'll plan on doing another of these threads next year.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-footba ... ll-playoff
Thanks for providing this information all season.
We deserve so much better
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 8867
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
windywave
Emerald Circle
Posts: 23292
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:13 am
Location: Chicago

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by windywave »

Except Houston High has a new coach and offense
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 8867
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

windywave wrote:Except Houston High has a new coach and offense
But maybe not D'Eriq King. And that defense is more than a one year fix. I'm not saying we'll win the West, but that ought to be the goal in year 4 and we should have a realistic shot at it.
visualmagic
President's Circle
Posts: 4382
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:26 pm

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by visualmagic »

tulaneoutlaw wrote:Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.
User avatar
CT Wave
Coach Level
Posts: 2302
Joined: Fri Jun 25, 2004 1:05 pm
Location: Naples, FL

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by CT Wave »

visualmagic wrote:
tulaneoutlaw wrote:Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.
Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?
"You're not here on scholarship to lose. I didn't recruit you to lose. Losing is abnormal; losing is unusual; losing is unacceptable. That's not what we're here for."
Bob Knight
visualmagic
President's Circle
Posts: 4382
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:26 pm

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by visualmagic »

CT Wave wrote:
visualmagic wrote:
tulaneoutlaw wrote:Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.
Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?
Apparently you don’t know what postgame win expectancy is
windywave
Emerald Circle
Posts: 23292
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:13 am
Location: Chicago

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by windywave »

visualmagic wrote:
CT Wave wrote:
visualmagic wrote:
tulaneoutlaw wrote:Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#
I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.
Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?
Apparently you don’t know what postgame win expectancy is
He has a point, the post game probability is binary
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
visualmagic
President's Circle
Posts: 4382
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:26 pm

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by visualmagic »

Looks like Windy is another person who doesn't know what post game win expectancy is, congrats.
Last edited by visualmagic on Thu Jan 03, 2019 2:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.
windywave
Emerald Circle
Posts: 23292
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:13 am
Location: Chicago

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by windywave »

visualmagic wrote:Looks like Windy is another person who doesn't know what post game win expectancy is, congrats.
So is the probability not 1 or 0?
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
visualmagic
President's Circle
Posts: 4382
Joined: Sun Mar 09, 2014 4:26 pm

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by visualmagic »

It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.
Postgame Win Expectancy

Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.

Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 8867
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

To give an example, suppose you played a game where team A got the ball 8 times and drove 99 yards only to be stopped at the 1 on 4th down every drive. Meanwhile, team B has the ball 8 times but never never gains a yard and takes you to over time 0-0 where they win 3-0. If you looked at the box score of that game minus the actual score, you'd expect team A dominated and won in a blowout. But because of a low number of drives and an anomalous number of goal line stands, team A actually lost.

If you played that game 100 times, Team A wins 99 of them, but it just so happened the 1 time they lose is what played out. Post-game win expectancy isn't an attempt to disregard end of game results, it's an attempt to qualify how dominant or fluky the end result was.
windywave
Emerald Circle
Posts: 23292
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:13 am
Location: Chicago

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by windywave »

visualmagic wrote:It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.
Postgame Win Expectancy

Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.

Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.
So 1 minus the "statistic" is the luck factor?
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
windywave
Emerald Circle
Posts: 23292
Joined: Wed Nov 17, 2010 11:13 am
Location: Chicago

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by windywave »

tulaneoutlaw wrote:To give an example, suppose you played a game where team A got the ball 8 times and drove 99 yards only to be stopped at the 1 on 4th down every drive. Meanwhile, team B has the ball 8 times but never never gains a yard and takes you to over time 0-0 where they win 3-0. If you looked at the box score of that game minus the actual score, you'd expect team A dominated and won in a blowout. But because of a low number of drives and an anomalous number of goal line stands, team A actually lost.

If you played that game 100 times, Team A wins 99 of them, but it just so happened the 1 time they lose is what played out. Post-game win expectancy isn't an attempt to disregard end of game results, it's an attempt to qualify how dominant or fluky the end result was.
I'd actually think B had a hell of a punter
Using big words is not a personal attack
#cousins don't count
User avatar
PeteRasche
Cornerstone
Posts: 30922
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:52 am
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by PeteRasche »

windywave wrote:
visualmagic wrote:It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.
Postgame Win Expectancy

Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.

Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.
So 1 minus the "statistic" is the luck factor?
Postgame win expectancy=1-Luck.
I like it.
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 8867
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

Just for fun, I tweeted at Bill Connelly, who developed S&P+, about the flukiest games in terms of who won vs. post-game win expectancy this season. Here is his response:

Least likely 2018 wins, per post-game win expectancy:

1. GT > UVA (1%)
2. Navy > Memphis (2%)
3. Kansas > TCU (3%)
4. SC > Mizzou :( :( :( :( (3%)
5. UTSA > TXST (4%)
6. Colorado > Neb (4%)
7. Arizona > Cal (5%)
8. LT > UNT (7%)
9. Charlotte > USM (7%)
10. Army > Hawaii (7%)

BTW, does anybody here know how to embed tweets? I feel like I've seen them from posters before, but I've never done them myself. I don't see an html option in the posting window that would let me copy in the source code.
User avatar
gerryb323
Regent's Circle
Posts: 9660
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2010 11:18 am
Location: There's no place like home

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by gerryb323 »

tulaneoutlaw wrote:Just for fun, I tweeted at Bill Connelly, who developed S&P+, about the flukiest games in terms of who won vs. post-game win expectancy this season. Here is his response:

Least likely 2018 wins, per post-game win expectancy:

1. GT > UVA (1%)
2. Navy > Memphis (2%)
3. Kansas > TCU (3%)
4. SC > Mizzou :( :( :( :( (3%)
5. UTSA > TXST (4%)
6. Colorado > Neb (4%)
7. Arizona > Cal (5%)
8. LT > UNT (7%)
9. Charlotte > USM (7%)
10. Army > Hawaii (7%)

BTW, does anybody here know how to embed tweets? I feel like I've seen them from posters before, but I've never done them myself. I don't see an html option in the posting window that would let me copy in the source code.
I don't think we can embed tweets. Would need to screenshot and post as a picture

Image
Wandering around somewhere in a matchup zone
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 8867
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

Thanks Gerry. Mods, an html feature would be a nice add if it's possible.
User avatar
gerryb323
Regent's Circle
Posts: 9660
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2010 11:18 am
Location: There's no place like home

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by gerryb323 »

tulaneoutlaw wrote:Thanks Gerry. Mods, an html feature would be a nice add if it's possible.
I believe it's a restriction on the BB platform itself. It's in the FAQ that HTML code doesn't work. Eventually they'll probably have BBcode that will allow embedding like the YouTube tag.
Wandering around somewhere in a matchup zone
User avatar
PeteRasche
Cornerstone
Posts: 30922
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:52 am
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: Tulane Advanced Stats

Post by PeteRasche »

Interesting that the Navy defeat over Memphis came back around to be meaningless, after, with two weeks left, it was literally looking like it would cost Memphis a shot at the AAC West and a CG berth. Memphis was able to redeem themselves in the final two weeks by the skin of their teeth but otherwise, a 2% fluke would have cost them the berth.
Post Reply