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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 3:33 pm 
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StPeteWave wrote:
Wasn't it posted some where this year that our schedule was ranked as high as thirteenth in difficulty?


It was, but that was only based on opponent win percentage I think.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2019 6:42 pm 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
A final note here as we close out the football year. We finished the season ranked 86th in S&P+, one spot ahead of....ULL. The article below shows that along with some other notes including how awful the AAC's bowl season was and how the MAC ended up being the weakest conference this year. Worth a look if you have the time. I'll plan on doing another of these threads next year.

https://www.sbnation.com/college-football/2019/1/2/18165203/ncaa-football-rankings-2018-college-football-playoff


Thanks for providing this information all season.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 9:12 am 
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Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 11:45 am 
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Except Houston High has a new coach and offense

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:18 pm 
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windywave wrote:
Except Houston High has a new coach and offense


But maybe not D'Eriq King. And that defense is more than a one year fix. I'm not saying we'll win the West, but that ought to be the goal in year 4 and we should have a realistic shot at it.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 12:23 pm 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#


I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:48 pm 
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visualmagic wrote:
tulaneoutlaw wrote:
Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#


I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.


Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:50 pm 
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CT Wave wrote:
visualmagic wrote:
tulaneoutlaw wrote:
Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#


I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.


Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?


Apparently you don’t know what postgame win expectancy is


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:09 pm 
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visualmagic wrote:
CT Wave wrote:
visualmagic wrote:
tulaneoutlaw wrote:
Postseason full stat breakdown. The Cure Bowl was our best offensive performance since Nicholls, while the defense was it's usual above average self. Project forward at your own risk, but if we can be similar on defense next year and our offense can play like it did against ULL, we'll have a good shot to win the West.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vQ2e9xV7-ClihFVJ3kla0ZDxzFCQ7-WXvQRur-nK6gOzo333PqSetw52kEGgbXKb6viGZSbYuJugvRR/pubhtml#


I'd just like to point out that LSU's postgame win expectancy against UCF was 99%.
And people are trying to argue with me that LSU didn't dominate them. I wish it wasn't true but it was obvious.


Postgame win expectancy was 100%. Or don't you do probability?


Apparently you don’t know what postgame win expectancy is


He has a point, the post game probability is binary

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:16 pm 
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Looks like Windy is another person who doesn't know what post game win expectancy is, congrats.


Last edited by visualmagic on Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:18 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:17 pm 
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visualmagic wrote:
Looks like Windy is another person who doesn't know what post game win expectancy is, congrats.


So is the probability not 1 or 0?

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:18 pm 
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It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.

Quote:
Postgame Win Expectancy

Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.

Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:29 pm 
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To give an example, suppose you played a game where team A got the ball 8 times and drove 99 yards only to be stopped at the 1 on 4th down every drive. Meanwhile, team B has the ball 8 times but never never gains a yard and takes you to over time 0-0 where they win 3-0. If you looked at the box score of that game minus the actual score, you'd expect team A dominated and won in a blowout. But because of a low number of drives and an anomalous number of goal line stands, team A actually lost.

If you played that game 100 times, Team A wins 99 of them, but it just so happened the 1 time they lose is what played out. Post-game win expectancy isn't an attempt to disregard end of game results, it's an attempt to qualify how dominant or fluky the end result was.


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:39 pm 
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visualmagic wrote:
It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.

Quote:
Postgame Win Expectancy

Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.

Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.


So 1 minus the "statistic" is the luck factor?

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 3:42 pm 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
To give an example, suppose you played a game where team A got the ball 8 times and drove 99 yards only to be stopped at the 1 on 4th down every drive. Meanwhile, team B has the ball 8 times but never never gains a yard and takes you to over time 0-0 where they win 3-0. If you looked at the box score of that game minus the actual score, you'd expect team A dominated and won in a blowout. But because of a low number of drives and an anomalous number of goal line stands, team A actually lost.

If you played that game 100 times, Team A wins 99 of them, but it just so happened the 1 time they lose is what played out. Post-game win expectancy isn't an attempt to disregard end of game results, it's an attempt to qualify how dominant or fluky the end result was.


I'd actually think B had a hell of a punter

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PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2019 5:44 pm 
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windywave wrote:
visualmagic wrote:
It's a statistic, if you don't like the name, take it up with the guy who came up with it.

Quote:
Postgame Win Expectancy

Presented in the team stat profiles, this makes the following statement: “Based on the key stats from this game — success rate, big plays, field position components, turnovers, etc. — you could have expected to win it X percent of the time.” Luck and randomness play a major role in the game of football, and this is an attempt to look at just how random a given outcome may have been.

Note: This measure has nothing to do with pre-game projections or opponent adjustments, only the postgame stats from a specific game.


So 1 minus the "statistic" is the luck factor?

Postgame win expectancy=1-Luck.
I like it.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 7:53 am 
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Just for fun, I tweeted at Bill Connelly, who developed S&P+, about the flukiest games in terms of who won vs. post-game win expectancy this season. Here is his response:

Least likely 2018 wins, per post-game win expectancy:

1. GT > UVA (1%)
2. Navy > Memphis (2%)
3. Kansas > TCU (3%)
4. SC > Mizzou :( :( :( :( (3%)
5. UTSA > TXST (4%)
6. Colorado > Neb (4%)
7. Arizona > Cal (5%)
8. LT > UNT (7%)
9. Charlotte > USM (7%)
10. Army > Hawaii (7%)

BTW, does anybody here know how to embed tweets? I feel like I've seen them from posters before, but I've never done them myself. I don't see an html option in the posting window that would let me copy in the source code.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:34 am 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
Just for fun, I tweeted at Bill Connelly, who developed S&P+, about the flukiest games in terms of who won vs. post-game win expectancy this season. Here is his response:

Least likely 2018 wins, per post-game win expectancy:

1. GT > UVA (1%)
2. Navy > Memphis (2%)
3. Kansas > TCU (3%)
4. SC > Mizzou :( :( :( :( (3%)
5. UTSA > TXST (4%)
6. Colorado > Neb (4%)
7. Arizona > Cal (5%)
8. LT > UNT (7%)
9. Charlotte > USM (7%)
10. Army > Hawaii (7%)

BTW, does anybody here know how to embed tweets? I feel like I've seen them from posters before, but I've never done them myself. I don't see an html option in the posting window that would let me copy in the source code.

I don't think we can embed tweets. Would need to screenshot and post as a picture

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:40 am 
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Thanks Gerry. Mods, an html feature would be a nice add if it's possible.


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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:45 am 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
Thanks Gerry. Mods, an html feature would be a nice add if it's possible.

I believe it's a restriction on the BB platform itself. It's in the FAQ that HTML code doesn't work. Eventually they'll probably have BBcode that will allow embedding like the YouTube tag.

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PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:30 pm 
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Interesting that the Navy defeat over Memphis came back around to be meaningless, after, with two weeks left, it was literally looking like it would cost Memphis a shot at the AAC West and a CG berth. Memphis was able to redeem themselves in the final two weeks by the skin of their teeth but otherwise, a 2% fluke would have cost them the berth.


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