Cincinnati stats

[DrHullabaloo]

5-0 record

AP Poll: #38
Coaches Poll: #40

Cincinnati v UCLA W 26-17
Cincinnati v Miami Ohio W 21-0
Cincinnati v Alabama A&M W 63-7
Cincinnati v Univ Ohio W 34-30
Cincinnati v Uconn: W 49-7

15 point spread.

[PeteRasche]

Isn't it amazing how a win over a name jumps them to the top 40? UCLA is terrible this year, but they still have that name on their jersey. And since UC played them in the first game when no one knew how they'd be, UC got some extra cred at the time.

Next weekend will be completely a question of how WE play. If we come out flat like we traditionally have after a big win, they will beat us, period (as well every opponent from here forward, as we don't play UConn). And that "being flat" also means offensive play calling. If we play remotely close to how we did against Memphis, we'll win.

[randymc]

offensively CIN looks like the Ridder and Warren show, mainly a ground game offense. The QB's running ability I think will be the Wave's defense main concern/challenge.
the CIN defense has been excellent stat-wise, but I believe it was Ohio U. ran for 250 or so yards on the ground vs. CIN. hopefully the Wave can approach their Memphis game efficiency on the ground and break a few long runs too.
hopefully CIN comes into the game, thinking they are Ohio State and goes out looking like Miami (O).
I'd say they deserve to be a 5 pt favorite, and I'd still take the Wave and the points. anything more than that betting line and it would be like taking candy from (fill in the blank).

[WaveProf]

Math nerd alert and clarity warning:

Two major polls do not rank beyond 25, and use an ordinal voting system that only calculates the teams who people think should be top 25. That means, statistically, having the 15th most votes of teams that don’t make the top 25, isn’t the same as being number 40. To get an accurate Calculation of all the voters think is the 40th best team, you’d have to redo the pool with 40 slots

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[Fan Since '54]

Pete, as someone who actually lives in Cincinnati, you probably know more about their football team than anyone else here on YOGWF. Therefore I trust your judgement here. And what you said above makes sence. They have not exactly played a murderers' row so far. And they are undefeated. We have also not exactly played a murderers' row (save OSU) either. But if we can play anywhere up to the standard we played vs Memphis, we can win this contest, even though it is "on foreign soil".

Roll Wave.

Fan since '54

[OGSB]

Cincinnati Enquirer: Instant analysis: UC Bearcats blow out UConn by 42 points, near bowl eligibility

[Baywave1]

Big surprise: it's UC's Homecoming. I hope they enjoy the halftime show.

[WaveProf]

UCLA is 0-5 and will be an underdog in all of the rest of their games

CIncy took care of business against (really) bad teams UConn and Alabama A&M

They were sluggish against Ohio U, and won at the end of the game by 4 points against Miami OH

We are playing a big game on the road (not a great history there), and Cincinnati certainly needs to be respected for having taken care of business against five teams from the "should beat" category (something we didn't manage to do with UAB). But, as of yet, there is hardly any evidence that UC is some kind of juggernaut.

I had this game penciled in as a win before the season. I'm not that confident now by any stretch (for the reasons just stated). But this game is more winnable than, say, Memphis.

[Roller]

Math nerd alert and clarity warning:

Two major polls do not rank beyond 25, and use an ordinal voting system that only calculates the teams who people think should be top 25. That means, statistically, having the 15th most votes of teams that don’t make the top 25, isn’t the same as being number 40. To get an accurate Calculation of all the voters think is the 40th best team, you’d have to redo the pool with 40 slots

This useless information has been brought to you by your friends at (insert corporation)

That gets brought up a lot, but I don't buy it. The system awards points for getting top-25 votes--the higher you're voted, the more points you receive. If everyone who voted thinks you're #26, you get no points, but if even one voter thinks you're #25, you get a point, and despite what everyone else might think, somebody voted you higher than that #26.

So the total points received is relevant, and ranking all vote-getters beyond 25 is every bit as meaningful as the poll is in the first place.

[WaveProf]

Roller, I never said it was irrelevant, just that it wasn't entirely statistically precise. And meanwhile, while I disagree with what you wrote, I don't care enough to debate it on a busy day. But bigger news, Cincy is now #30 in the coach's poll counting the way you count. It won't happen but I'd love them to crack top 25 for the AP before we play them.

[WaveProf]

Guerry Smith points out the only undefeated teams not in the top 25 are USF and Cincy. He also point out that, in fairness, USF has looked unimpressive in its wins and Cincy has looked impressive but hasn't played anyone impressive.

[WaveProf]

Cincy 4th team out in the AP

[tulaneoutlaw]

If you want to parse Cinci stats, their team stats are up:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... R/pubhtml#

We are the highest ranked team they've faced all year, though we aren't much above UCLA. Their defense has been their best unit; their offense has been fine. This is a huge game for us. Need to find a way to keep the momentum going on the road.