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 Post subject: Final 3
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:00 pm 
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Win chances according to espn:
Vs Temple 64%
Vs UCF 24%
Vs SMU 34%

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:07 pm 
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Also, watching the talent gap between Memphis and smu makes me feel less bad about getting steamrolled by Memphis.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sat Nov 02, 2019 10:27 pm 
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WaveProf wrote:
Also, watching the talent gap between Memphis and smu makes me feel less bad about getting steamrolled by Memphis.


The difference is SMUs offense was ready for a shootout.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:10 am 
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SMU is gonna score 50 on us, maybe 60. But that's a worry for another week.


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:28 am 
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PeteRasche wrote:
SMU is gonna score 50 on us, maybe 60. But that's a worry for another week.

As of now I agree. That will be the best QB we face. If we don’t get blown out by UCF I’ll think we have a chance. For now, 6-3 is something to celebrate!

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:40 am 
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I wish we were getting the next crack at SMU, I think they'll have a hangover game after finally losing.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 1:33 am 
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We will defend a 7 game home winning streak (2018-19) when UCF comes to Yulman.

Longest prior streak was 9 consecutive home wins back in 1998-1999.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 7:46 am 
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Temple is the biggest opportunity to get 7 wins. With that said, we can beat both SMU and UCF if go Army/Navy on them. With our running attack, I would slow the game down by keeping the clock moving. Get the lead, and run, run, run. That would be my strategy. Go Wing-T.


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:02 am 
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For comparison, prior to yesterday, SP+ had us at
Temple 56%
UCF 31%
SMU 47%

FPI really dislikes temple. Somehow has them in the 90s.

SP+ had us rated higher than SMU before the loss.


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:11 am 
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waverider wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
SMU is gonna score 50 on us, maybe 60. But that's a worry for another week.

As of now I agree. That will be the best QB we face. If we don’t get blown out by UCF I’ll think we have a chance. For now, 6-3 is something to celebrate!


I think that the Tulsa QB was quite good. Playing on a better team, he would get more recognition.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:17 am 
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Ecu nearly beat Cinci yesterday. Weird things happen all the time. While our best chance is almost surely against Temple, those other two games are not out of reach. Maybe we Army-OU one of them and sit on the clock. Maybe they get sloppy and turn the ball over a bunch. Maybe penalties don't kill us and the defense shows up and really rattles a quarterback. It would be just like the college football world for us to lose to meh SMU teams in key moments the last two years only to wind up beating them this year when they are very good.

The good news is, we are somewhat playing with house money. The bowl is secured and we aren't likely to get back in the conference title race so the next three games should be about playing pressure free and trying to ruin the other guy's expectations for the end of the season. Getting that "no wins over a ranked opponent since 1984" monkey off our back would sure be nice.


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 8:22 am 
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Plus, the bye this week gives us a chance to get healthy and focus on getting prepared for Temple.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:17 am 
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We'll be a small favorite against Temple and 7 or so point dogs against UCF and SMU.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:35 am 
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PeteRasche wrote:
SMU is gonna score 50 on us, maybe 60. But that's a worry for another week.


SMU isn’t scoring 50 or 60 on us


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:38 am 
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FW wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
SMU is gonna score 50 on us, maybe 60. But that's a worry for another week.


SMU isn’t scoring 50 or 60 on us


Yeah, I don't think SMU has the firepower of Ohio State or Baker Mayfield's Oklahoma. We need to calm down.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:45 am 
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+1 FW and Soph

We have serious problems on our pass D, but people have been freaking out and overstating those problems for 3 weeks. Let’s all take a deep breath for a moment. SMU doesn’t score 50 unless we help them with a couple of bad turnovers.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 9:56 am 
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WaveProf wrote:
+1 FW and Soph

We have serious problems on our pass D, but people have been freaking out and overstating those problems for 3 weeks. Let’s all take a deep breath for a moment. SMU doesn’t score 50 unless we help them with a couple of bad turnovers.


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:28 am 
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Sophandros wrote:
FW wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
SMU is gonna score 50 on us, maybe 60. But that's a worry for another week.


SMU isn’t scoring 50 or 60 on us


Yeah, I don't think SMU has the firepower of Ohio State or Baker Mayfield's Oklahoma. We need to calm down.
You don't think Ohio State could have scored 80 on us if they'd wanted? We didn't come remotely close to stopping them in the first half - it was almost comical how easily they passed on us - and our pass defense and our d-line pressure was better then. Those were both early season games where the opponent was happy to play subs after it was out of hand. UCF and SMU won't be so kind, as they are angry about their losses and will want to prove their dominance in the AAC.

I'd like to think we figured out something yesterday with 4 sacks, but then read that Tulsa's QB is very well known for staying in the pocket too long and not sensing pressure and he takes way too many sacks, so I'm still skeptical. I'll be happy to be wrong if we win (but if we lose 49-13 and y'all try to give me grief that they didn't score 50, it will be pretty sad... though I expect we'll score more than that).


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 11:37 am 
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PeteRasche wrote:

I'd like to think we figured out something yesterday with 4 sacks, but then read that Tulsa's QB is very well known for staying in the pocket too long and not sensing pressure and he takes way too many sacks, so I'm still skeptical.


I believe it. On their first possession we held them to 3 and out, sacking him on 3rd down but as the pocket collapsed there was nothing but green in front of him. He just stood there.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 12:36 pm 
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OGSB wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:

I'd like to think we figured out something yesterday with 4 sacks, but then read that Tulsa's QB is very well known for staying in the pocket too long and not sensing pressure and he takes way too many sacks, so I'm still skeptical.


I believe it. On their first possession we held them to 3 and out, sacking him on 3rd down but as the pocket collapsed there was nothing but green in front of him. He just stood there.

Same here. I was kinda like, "well, alrighty then, thanks for that."


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 4:18 pm 
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We need to keep winning. I don't want to be just be "in a bowl." I want a better bowl than what the last ones in get.


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:15 pm 
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We are capable of winning or losing each of the next three games. Temple away is no gimme--we have not played well away from home this season, Army excepted. Anything can happen in this league and, for example, we handled Tulsa better than Memphis or SMU did. You just don't know.

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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:21 pm 
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PeteRasche wrote:
Sophandros wrote:
FW wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
SMU is gonna score 50 on us, maybe 60. But that's a worry for another week.


SMU isn’t scoring 50 or 60 on us


Yeah, I don't think SMU has the firepower of Ohio State or Baker Mayfield's Oklahoma. We need to calm down.
You don't think Ohio State could have scored 80 on us if they'd wanted? We didn't come remotely close to stopping them in the first half - it was almost comical how easily they passed on us - and our pass defense and our d-line pressure was better then. Those were both early season games where the opponent was happy to play subs after it was out of hand. UCF and SMU won't be so kind, as they are angry about their losses and will want to prove their dominance in the AAC.

I'd like to think we figured out something yesterday with 4 sacks, but then read that Tulsa's QB is very well known for staying in the pocket too long and not sensing pressure and he takes way too many sacks, so I'm still skeptical. I'll be happy to be wrong if we win (but if we lose 49-13 and y'all try to give me grief that they didn't score 50, it will be pretty sad... though I expect we'll score more than that).


The OSU four and five star starters were awesome that day. Easy win that day for the Buckeyes.

I follow Guerry Smith's point though about the second half after the OSU starters rested. OSU played folks in the second half who almost universally were more highly recruited and rated than anyone Tulane had on its team. OSU's backups did little to nothing. Yeah there was no pressure on OSU from a scoring standpoint but it was still like a serious scrimmage for all including Tulane. Play well and you play more in later games. Don't and you won't.

In other words, Guerry was trying to explain how Tulane could finish the season so strong last year after getting whomped by the OSU starters. It was better than it looked in the first half against OSU. This is not reaching at straws. Tulane could not stand with a Top Five team when it was smoking. However it could stand with a Top Forty team which is what OSU's backup lineup (at least as recruits) looked like.


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:24 pm 
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Yall won't like this, but SP+ has us at 34. That's well ahead of Temple at 52 and ahead of SMU at 40. It's also one spot ahead of Cincinnati.

In terms of inputs we are 15th in offense and 67th in defense. SP+ will favor us over Temple, maybe by a decent margin


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 Post subject: Re: Final 3
PostPosted: Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:29 pm 
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Rotorooter wrote:
We are capable of winning or losing each of the next three games. Temple away is no gimme--we have not played well away from home this season, Army excepted. Anything can happen in this league and, for example, we handled Tulsa better than Memphis or SMU did. You just don't know.


This is a great day. We get an extra hour to celebrate Tulsa win under Willie rules. In about two hours we are back to 0-0 this week. About the only thing that would surprise me about the next three games is if SMU put up 50 on Tulane (unless it is an overtime game.) Tulane could lose three close games like it were Tulsa reincarnated or could sweep them all. I would not bet a parley on either of those potential outcomes.

Most likely is something in between. Meanwhile I'm just hoping for a win against a solid Temple this week.* Worry about UCF/SMU later.

*I'd be happy for Tulane to beat Temple but it will have to wait a few days until Nov 16th...….


Last edited by Baywave1 on Sun Nov 03, 2019 5:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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