YouTube interview with TU commit M. Lucarelli/baseball

[randymc]

With so many doom and gloom, sky has fallen and its not getting up, can't stand Uhlman, can't stand Izzio, can't stand Dannen posts, here is how one major commitment and likely future starting SS for the baseball team -- New Jersey's Mike Lucarelli -- handled the coaching change in a positive manner. The kid's been committed for 18 months or so, loves Jay Uhlman (who communicated early and often with him after Jewett was axed). The first 10 minutes of the interview below focuses on his commitment, the coaching change and how commits in his class communicate with each other via a group chat. P.S.: His commitment to Tulane is as strong as ever. (Just rewind to beginning of interview to hear the Tulane stuff.)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JhpF5Lb1o0

[long green]

If he’s really good can Schulz play another position, like second? Then whither Baumgardt?

[LondonWave]

It was interesting to see his enthusiasm for "Slap the Wall."

[randymc]

He's really good but won't be on campus til 2024 season; He will sign this coming November.
He has one more year of high school.

[long green]

STW was fine. You can say that and still hate Jewett.

[long green]

He's really good but won't be on campus til 2024 season; He will sign this coming November.
He has one more year of high school.

Worry about it then, then.

[G-wave]

Does anyone know if we have any impact players in the incoming FR class this year ?

[randymc]

5 guys rated 9 on 10-pt scale by Perfect Game:
Andrew Glass, Lake Charles, LA, catcher
Andy Holub, 3B, Bronxville NY
Michael Lombardi, infielder, Pound Ridge NY
Wilson Woodcox, P, Houston TX
Hayden Mileski, OF, Lakeville, MN
https://www.perfectgame.org/College/Col ... llege=1749

[G-wave]

Damm he just might be a heck of a recruiter. If we keep Linn and Banks looks like a good lineup will need to work hard on Pitching Staff which was not that deep this year.

[visualmagic]

5 guys rated 9 on 10-pt scale by Perfect Game:
Andrew Glass, Lake Charles, LA, catcher
Andy Holub, 3B, Bronxville NY
Michael Lombardi, infielder, Pound Ridge NY
Wilson Woodcox, P, Houston TX
Hayden Mileski, OF, Lakeville, MN
https://www.perfectgame.org/College/Col ... llege=1749

Before you get too excited about a 9 on the Perfect Game grading scale, Krishna Raj and Liam Cogswell both were 9s on PG.
Neither could cut it at Tulane

[tjtlja]

And Michael Jordan was cut from his high school team. What’s the point? Is anyone allowed to get excited?

[visualmagic]

Get excited all you want. Nobody has to listen to me

[randymc]

Tulane has reeled in 11 guys in the '21. '22 and '23 classes --so far-- rated 9 and above by Perfect Game. PG defines that rating as follows:
Potential top 10 round pick and/or highest level college prospect. Key word is "potential."

[tulaneoutlaw]

It would be interesting to know, and I'm not going to look, how predictive PGs ratings system actually is. If it means potential top 10 round pick, then there should be ~320 players with that grade. I know in football 24/7 takes great pride in reporting how many first rounders were 5 stars because that shows the strength of their rating system (since a 5 star is supposed to project to a 1st round pick). They are also always tweaking their model to improve their projections.

[randymc]

I went back to 2018 for Tulane recruiting and basically one guy per year with a high rating hasn't been heard from since either at Tulane or elsewhere.

[tjtlja]

It would be interesting to know, and I'm not going to look, how predictive PGs ratings system actually is. If it means potential top 10 round pick, then there should be ~320 players with that grade. I know in football 24/7 takes great pride in reporting how many first rounders were 5 stars because that shows the strength of their rating system (since a 5 star is supposed to project to a 1st round pick). They are also always tweaking their model to improve their projections.

Law, I can tell you a lot of scouts work for PG. Of course, they miss on plenty, but they do get plenty right. Because there are so many kids they only see once or twice, it can be a tough evaluation. I think the rule of thumb would be to track the kids they see a dozen or more times. And if the player is cross checked, even better.

Some of the travel teams in Houston just stay in Houston and play the other travel teams. There is enough college depth on these teams to draw plenty of scouts. PG may not see many of these guys unless they commit to play in East Cobb or Jupiter, or get lucky enough to play with a regional or national type team.

[visualmagic]

BTW we did this same thing in the off-season of 2017. Everyone ranted and raved and gushed over the first class of recruits that Jewett signed. I tried to temper the expectations. I told everyone the class wasn’t going to be very good. Nobody wanted to believe me.


You can read that here
http://yogwf.com/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=48940&start=100

[waverider]

BTW we did this same thing in the off-season of 2017. Everyone ranted and raved and gushed over the first class of recruits that Jewett signed. I tried to temper the expectations. I told everyone the class wasn’t going to be very good. Nobody wanted to believe me.


You can read that here
http://yogwf.com/viewtopic.php?f=17&t=48940&start=100

Amazing that in the last 11 pages of that thread I only had two posts. One was mentioning the underachievement of Ross Massey and the other was regarding a transfer with Tulane connections being denied admission over 2 credits.

[Luvs da Wave]

OK. So not all highly related recruits live up to the hype.
So should we be recruiting low rated players?

[randymc]

interesting to note that the 2017 class, while far from one that turned the program around did include 4 pitchers who ended up drafted by the Major Leagues; plus Trent Johnson and Kaleb Roper who were contributors to the program (and Roper is pitching in AA minor leagues with Birmingham this year). Also, F. Niemann and Luis Aviles were signees at that time, although Aviles went the JC route before ending up at Tulane the past couple of years, with the 2022 season very successful for him personally at the plate.

[tulaneoutlaw]

OK. So not all highly related recruits live up to the hype.
So should we be recruiting low rated players?

Of course not. It's still worth asking

a) how accurate are the ratings at preding talent? We know there's probably some correlation between talent and rating but not always how predictive any given ratings system is

b) just how highly rated are the guys we are recruiting? On average we'd rather be recruiting the highest rated players possible, but there's a lot of variance in those metrics.

In football hundreds of guys get a 4 star rating. I think if you told people we got a 4 star recruit we would all be pumped, but if he was the very lowest ranked 4 star, in truth there wouldn't be that much difference in that player's rating and the top rated 3 star. The rating for players mentioned here was a 9/10 which is supposed to translate into a top 10 round selection. That's on average likely better than a player with a projection of rounds 11-40, but even within the first 10 rounds there's a pretty big gap between a first rounder and the last pick of the 10th round.

[visualmagic]

Guys in the top 300 that we’ve had like Banks and Linn have a great hit rate but Go look at the Perfect Game top 500. They lose me when I see 30 pages of guys all tied for the 500th ranking.