Week VIII (Schedule, Discussion, Scores)

Unread post by **WaveProf** » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:04 pm

Saturday October 19
Houston 24 at UConn 17
Temple 21 at #19 SMU 45
Tulsa 13 at #21 Cincinnati 24
USF 3 at Navy 35
Tulane 17 at Memphis 47
ECU 28 at UCF 41

Unread post by **PeteRasche** » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:12 pm

ESPNU and ESPN2 are both carrying AAC doubleheaders. Nice.

Unread post by **Baywave1** » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:25 pm

battle of the tankards at 11am on ESPNU. I'll pull for UH just because... but not too hard.

Unread post by **WaveProf** » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:43 pm

Houston will win big. That team still has a lot of talent. They'll beat Tulsa too and give Navy a shot. If I were Memphis I wouldn't sleep on them either.

Unread post by **WaveProf** » Sun Oct 13, 2019 1:55 pm

lines added

Unread post by **gerryb323** » Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:39 pm

Isn't Temple ranked now?

Unread post by **WaveProf** » Sun Oct 13, 2019 3:44 pm

Not in the AP. In fact we are ahead of them in the AP. And I consider the AP the "real" poll

Unread post by **QuarterbackU** » Sun Oct 13, 2019 8:20 pm

What an amazing weekend it would be if Tulane, Temple, and South Florida can all win...

Unread post by **PeteRasche** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:05 am

I got curious about the East race.

Cincinnati's schedule.... in their next four games, they get Tulsa, ECU, UConn, and USF.

In AAC terms, that's cupcake row (assuming they get by Tulsa this week, it really is). They are almost guaranteed to be 9-1 before finishing with Temple at home and then at Memphis. Against the next four opponents they'll only climb the rankings based on teams ahead of them losing, so I'm guessing they'll be somewhere in the mid teens by then (maybe 14-ish?).

UCF still has Temple, Houston, Tulsa, and us. Decent chance they lose at least one of those, and of course Cincinnati already has the head-to-head on them. It might be tough for them to win the East.

Temple has SMU and UCF the next two weeks. We'll know whether they are an East contender before Halloween. If they win one of those and stay in the race, they have us and the potentially-East-deciding game against Cincinnati in November (mixed in with USF and UConn).

This is gonna be fun!

Unread post by **gerryb323** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 7:21 am

I think it's probably literally never been said that Cincinnati got lucky with the schedule by not having us on it!

Unread post by **TUPF** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:44 am

gerryb323 wrote:I think it's probably literally never been said that Cincinnati got lucky with the schedule by not having us on it!

When we had particularly awful teams in the Dome, for some reason we usually still owned Cincy even when we were everyone else’s homecoming patsy. May that continue.

Unread post by **PeteRasche** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 8:52 am

TUPF wrote:
gerryb323 wrote:I think it's probably literally never been said that Cincinnati got lucky with the schedule by not having us on it!
When we had particularly awful teams in the Dome, for some reason we usually still owned Cincy even when we were everyone else’s homecoming patsy. May that continue.

Yeah, before their Big East days, we used to own them (granted they were historically terrible). Season opener in 1996, first ever game in CUSA, they thought they were gonna be good and we crushed their spirits in game one. We went 2-9 that year but still whipped them.

Unread post by **PeteRasche** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:22 pm

I got thinking about my post from this morning and wondered about how many AAC teams we could potentially have ranked at the same time. Unfortunately, I'm coming to the conclusion that what someone said a while back is true - whereas an SEC team beating another SEC team "only proves they are all tough", when one AAC team beats a ranked AAC team, we cannibalize ourselves.
Thoughts:
- If Temple hadn't had that weird loss to Buffalo, they'd be ranked right now. They have SMU this weekend, and if they win that they jump into the polls (Buffalo loss be damned). They'll have beaten ranked teams two straight weeks and have wins over a Big 10 and an ACC team as well (who cares if it's Maryland and Georgia Tech). The question is whether that would knock out SMU (below)...
- How about Memphis getting back in? They have us, Tulsa, then SMU. If they win all three, they probably get back into the rankings assuming SMU is still ranked... but if SMU has collapsed by then, they would have to continue on and beat Houston, USF, and ranked Cincinnati. In other words, if beating us and SMU doesn't get them there, they need to win out from here forward to get back in the polls. If they lose to us? They would definitely have to win out, and might sneak in the last weekend by beating a mid-teens Cincinnati.
- So about SMU: they play Temple this weekend. As far as AAC increasing numbers of ranked teams, the question is whether SMU can lose this weekend to Temple and still be ranked. I tend to think not, and that's the shame. If they can lose a game and still be ranked, then that's a legit chance for the AAC to get more teams ranked. The best outcome this weekend would probably be for Temple to beat SMU in a controversial 3-OT game by 1 point or something... that might keep SMU in and also get Temple in. But then they play Memphis in three weeks. If we want Memphis to get ranked at any point, Memphis probably has to beat SMU there, in which case SMU would drop out with two losses. I can't imagine SMU surviving losses to Temple and Memphis and still being ranked.
- Then there's us. Win this weekend and we're clearly in. After that, we're in as long as we keep winning; there's only one game we could lose and still finish the year ranked, and that would be losing to a 11-0 or maybe 10-1 SMU in the last game of the year. I say we'd still be ranked because by then SMU would be high enough that losing to them wouldn't take us right out. But if SMU has lost two or more (Temple and Memphis above?), they're not going to be ranked high enough that we could lose to them and stay ranked.
- If SMU wins out, we win out, and then we beat them (in a game which would absolutely be on ABC, by the way), both teams would be ranked, SMU probably around 9-11ish and us somewhere in the upper teens (18-20ish). No matter the outcome, both teams would stay ranked. If Memphis lost to us and lost to SMU, but won all the other games, could they get in on that last weekend beating Cincinnati (who would be somewhere between SMU and us)? Hard to say. They'd barely be getting votes after the SMU loss, so probably not.
- What about UCF getting back in? They'd need Temple to win this coming weekend against SMU, so that Temple would be ranked when they beat them; that might get them in (or maybe a week after or so)... then they'd need to win out (meaning they would beat us). In that case they probably knock both Temple and us out. But UCF has such a name that if they beat Temple and worked back into the poll, but then lost to a ranked Tulane, they could possibly stay ranked. But I don't think Temple could be ranked too.

There's a lot of ifs and buts involved in this and it's still way too early, but I'm starting to feel like there's no way more than three AAC teams get ranked simultaneously.

Unread post by **WaveProf** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 2:48 pm

Temple IS ranked in one poll

If we finish 10-2 we finish ranked no matter WHO we lose to. No doubt about it.

9-3 and we don't finish ranked, no matter who the wins/losses are.

Other than that I agree with your analysis.

Unread post by **Poseidon** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 3:19 pm

PeteRasche wrote:I got thinking about my post from this morning and wondered about how many AAC teams we could potentially have ranked at the same time. Unfortunately, I'm coming to the conclusion that what someone said a while back is true - whereas an SEC team beating another SEC team "only proves they are all tough", when one AAC team beats a ranked AAC team, we cannibalize ourselves.
Thoughts:
- If Temple hadn't had that weird loss to Buffalo, they'd be ranked right now. They have SMU this weekend, and if they win that they jump into the polls (Buffalo loss be damned). They'll have beaten ranked teams two straight weeks and have wins over a Big 10 and an ACC team as well (who cares if it's Maryland and Georgia Tech). The question is whether that would knock out SMU (below)...
- How about Memphis getting back in? They have us, Tulsa, then SMU. If they win all three, they probably get back into the rankings assuming SMU is still ranked... but if SMU has collapsed by then, they would have to continue on and beat Houston, USF, and ranked Cincinnati. In other words, if beating us and SMU doesn't get them there, they need to win out from here forward to get back in the polls. If they lose to us? They would definitely have to win out, and might sneak in the last weekend by beating a mid-teens Cincinnati.
- So about SMU: they play Temple this weekend. As far as AAC increasing numbers of ranked teams, the question is whether SMU can lose this weekend to Temple and still be ranked. I tend to think not, and that's the shame. If they can lose a game and still be ranked, then that's a legit chance for the AAC to get more teams ranked. The best outcome this weekend would probably be for Temple to beat SMU in a controversial 3-OT game by 1 point or something... that might keep SMU in and also get Temple in. But then they play Memphis in three weeks. If we want Memphis to get ranked at any point, Memphis probably has to beat SMU there, in which case SMU would drop out with two losses. I can't imagine SMU surviving losses to Temple and Memphis and still being ranked.
- Then there's us. Win this weekend and we're clearly in. After that, we're in as long as we keep winning; there's only one game we could lose and still finish the year ranked, and that would be losing to a 11-0 or maybe 10-1 SMU in the last game of the year. I say we'd still be ranked because by then SMU would be high enough that losing to them wouldn't take us right out. But if SMU has lost two or more (Temple and Memphis above?), they're not going to be ranked high enough that we could lose to them and stay ranked.
- If SMU wins out, we win out, and then we beat them (in a game which would absolutely be on ABC, by the way), both teams would be ranked, SMU probably around 9-11ish and us somewhere in the upper teens (18-20ish). No matter the outcome, both teams would stay ranked. If Memphis lost to us and lost to SMU, but won all the other games, could they get in on that last weekend beating Cincinnati (who would be somewhere between SMU and us)? Hard to say. They'd barely be getting votes after the SMU loss, so probably not.
- What about UCF getting back in? They'd need Temple to win this coming weekend against SMU, so that Temple would be ranked when they beat them; that might get them in (or maybe a week after or so)... then they'd need to win out (meaning they would beat us). In that case they probably knock both Temple and us out. But UCF has such a name that if they beat Temple and worked back into the poll, but then lost to a ranked Tulane, they could possibly stay ranked. But I don't think Temple could be ranked too.

There's a lot of ifs and buts involved in this and it's still way too early, but I'm starting to feel like there's no way more than three AAC teams get ranked simultaneously.

It's almost like it has something to do with where they start. AAC starts with less ranked and drops more when they lose. UCF has two losses and is still receiving votes only because they started the year ranked. Georgia loses to an unranked team with losing record at home and drops just 7 spots and are still in the top 10. Is there any who actually believes that if an AAC team were ranked they wouldn't drop at least 10 spots if they lost to say UNC.

The only way I see your 4 teams ranked riddle working is if
1) Cincinnati wins out.
2) SMU wins out until Tulane and loses but doesn't drop out.
3) Tulane wins out except for UCF. In the 5 weeks before ucf we would gain 5-7 spots putting us at around 20 when we lose to ucf knocking us back to 28ish at which point we beat and undefeated SMU ranked around 12th and that would put us back in the top 25 while not knocking SMU out.
4) UCF wins out. they are around 35 now, if they win out they will gain at least 10 spots.

SO conference championship weekend you would have Cincy 11-1 #13ish; SMU 11-1 #19th; Tulane 10-2 #21; 10-2 UCF #22.
If Tulane wins CCG then Cincy won't drop out and Tulane will go inside top #20.

Unread post by **Roller** » Mon Oct 14, 2019 4:53 pm

PeteRasche wrote:...The best outcome this weekend would probably be for Temple to beat SMU in a controversial 3-OT game by 1 point or something...

I like your analysis, but one point of order--by the 3rd OT, there is no 1-point scenario, so we'll have to go with the "or something."

Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:45 am

On a scale of 1-100, Houston's effort level is about a 4 versus UConn through the first 20 minutes.

Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:01 pm

QuarterbackU wrote:On a scale of 1-100, Houston's effort level is about a 4 versus UConn through the first 20 minutes.

We'Re NoT tAnKiNg ThE sEaSoN

Unread post by **OGSB** » Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:05 pm

QuarterbackU wrote:On a scale of 1-100, Houston's effort level is about a 4 versus UConn through the first 20 minutes.

Just checked the score. Down 7-3 midway through the 2nd quarter.

Unread post by **OGSB** » Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:12 pm

Turns out their ~~2nd string~~ starter is hurt. Holgorsen started. Up now 10-7

Unread post by **OGSB** » Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:32 pm

Not that it matters but had we hired Wille Fritz back when they walked down the hall for the coaching search and gave it to a guy who’s frying chicken now, by now we’d be unstoppable. If you can build a winner at Tulane you can do anything.

Houston’s UConn game thread

https://www.coogfans.com/t/gameday-thre ... m/21305/91

Unread post by **gerryb323** » Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:54 pm

OGSB wrote:
Not that it matters but had we hired Wille Fritz back when they walked down the hall for the coaching search and gave it to a guy who’s frying chicken now, by now we’d be unstoppable. If you can build a winner at Tulane you can do anything.
Houston’s UConn game thread

https://www.coogfans.com/t/gameday-thre ... m/21305/91

Not that it matters but had we hired Wille Fritz back when they walked down the hall for the coaching search and gave it to a guy who’s frying chicken now, by now we’d be unstoppable. If you can build a winner at Tulane you can do anything.

Unread post by **gerryb323** » Sat Oct 19, 2019 1:04 pm

OGSB wrote:
Not that it matters but had we hired Wille Fritz back when they walked down the hall for the coaching search and gave it to a guy who’s frying chicken now, by now we’d be unstoppable. If you can build a winner at Tulane you can do anything.
Houston’s UConn game thread

https://www.coogfans.com/t/gameday-thre ... m/21305/91

Is D’Eriq King hurt? Why isn’t he playing?

Lol

Unread post by **CT Wave** » Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:02 pm

Roller wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:...The best outcome this weekend would probably be for Temple to beat SMU in a controversial 3-OT game by 1 point or something...
I like your analysis, but one point of order--by the 3rd OT, there is no 1-point scenario, so we'll have to go with the "or something."

Well, what if Temple goes first in the third OT and kicks a field goal. Then SMU throws an interception and the Temple player is so excited he runs out of the back of the endzone for a safety.

Unread post by **OGSB** » Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:15 pm

Houston wins, 24-17

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