PeteRasche wrote:
I got thinking about my post from this morning and wondered about how many AAC teams we could potentially have ranked at the same time. Unfortunately, I'm coming to the conclusion that what someone said a while back is true - whereas an SEC team beating another SEC team "only proves they are all tough", when one AAC team beats a ranked AAC team, we cannibalize ourselves.
Thoughts:
- If Temple hadn't had that weird loss to Buffalo, they'd be ranked right now. They have SMU this weekend, and if they win that they jump into the polls (Buffalo loss be damned). They'll have beaten ranked teams two straight weeks and have wins over a Big 10 and an ACC team as well (who cares if it's Maryland and Georgia Tech). The question is whether that would knock out SMU (below)...
- How about Memphis getting back in? They have us, Tulsa, then SMU. If they win all three, they probably get back into the rankings assuming SMU is still ranked... but if SMU has collapsed by then, they would have to continue on and beat Houston, USF, and ranked Cincinnati. In other words, if beating us and SMU doesn't get them there, they need to win out from here forward to get back in the polls. If they lose to us? They would definitely have to win out, and might sneak in the last weekend by beating a mid-teens Cincinnati.
- So about SMU: they play Temple this weekend. As far as AAC increasing numbers of ranked teams, the question is whether SMU can lose this weekend to Temple and still be ranked. I tend to think not, and that's the shame. If they can lose a game and still be ranked, then that's a legit chance for the AAC to get more teams ranked. The best outcome this weekend would probably be for Temple to beat SMU in a controversial 3-OT game by 1 point or something... that might keep SMU in and also get Temple in. But then they play Memphis in three weeks. If we want Memphis to get ranked at any point, Memphis probably has to beat SMU there, in which case SMU would drop out with two losses. I can't imagine SMU surviving losses to Temple and Memphis and still being ranked.
- Then there's us. Win this weekend and we're clearly in. After that, we're in as long as we keep winning; there's only one game we could lose and still finish the year ranked, and that would be losing to a 11-0 or maybe 10-1 SMU in the last game of the year. I say we'd still be ranked because by then SMU would be high enough that losing to them wouldn't take us right out. But if SMU has lost two or more (Temple and Memphis above?), they're not going to be ranked high enough that we could lose to them and stay ranked.
- If SMU wins out, we win out, and then we beat them (in a game which would absolutely be on ABC, by the way), both teams would be ranked, SMU probably around 9-11ish and us somewhere in the upper teens (18-20ish). No matter the outcome, both teams would stay ranked. If Memphis lost to us and lost to SMU, but won all the other games, could they get in on that last weekend beating Cincinnati (who would be somewhere between SMU and us)? Hard to say. They'd barely be getting votes after the SMU loss, so probably not.
- What about UCF getting back in? They'd need Temple to win this coming weekend against SMU, so that Temple would be ranked when they beat them; that might get them in (or maybe a week after or so)... then they'd need to win out (meaning they would beat us). In that case they probably knock both Temple and us out. But UCF has such a name that if they beat Temple and worked back into the poll, but then lost to a ranked Tulane, they could possibly stay ranked. But I don't think Temple could be ranked too.
There's a lot of ifs and buts involved in this and it's still way too early, but I'm starting to feel like there's no way more than three AAC teams get ranked simultaneously.
It's almost like it has something to do with where they start. AAC starts with less ranked and drops more when they lose. UCF has two losses and is still receiving votes only because they started the year ranked. Georgia loses to an unranked team with losing record at home and drops just 7 spots and are still in the top 10. Is there any who actually believes that if an AAC team were ranked they wouldn't drop at least 10 spots if they lost to say UNC.
The only way I see your 4 teams ranked riddle working is if
1) Cincinnati wins out.
2) SMU wins out until Tulane and loses but doesn't drop out.
3) Tulane wins out except for UCF. In the 5 weeks before ucf we would gain 5-7 spots putting us at around 20 when we lose to ucf knocking us back to 28ish at which point we beat and undefeated SMU ranked around 12th and that would put us back in the top 25 while not knocking SMU out.
4) UCF wins out. they are around 35 now, if they win out they will gain at least 10 spots.
SO conference championship weekend you would have Cincy 11-1 #13ish; SMU 11-1 #19th; Tulane 10-2 #21; 10-2 UCF #22.
If Tulane wins CCG then Cincy won't drop out and Tulane will go inside top #20.
Login
Register
FAQ
Search
In AAC terms, that's cupcake row (assuming they get by Tulsa this week, it really is). They are almost guaranteed to be 9-1 before finishing with Temple at home and then at Memphis. Against the next four opponents they'll only climb the rankings based on teams ahead of them losing, so I'm guessing they'll be somewhere in the mid teens by then (maybe 14-ish?). 
