‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tjtlja »

GretnaGrn, thank you so much. I may need to send you some Tax Code sections I am currently researching (lol).

We are constantly hearing that 4 / 16 team conferences will be formed and break away from the pack. Is there any interplay with anti-trust as it relates to this situation?
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by GretnaGrn »

tjtlja wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 3:20 pm GretnaGrn, thank you so much. I may need to send you some Tax Code sections I am currently researching (lol).

We are constantly hearing that 4 / 16 team conferences will be formed and break away from the pack. Is there any interplay with anti-trust as it relates to this situation?
Very unlikely. Antitrust cases are extremely difficult and rare.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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tjtlja wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 3:20 pmWe are constantly hearing that 4 / 16 team conferences will be formed and break away from the pack. Is there any interplay with anti-trust as it relates to this situation?
I've stopped believing that hype. I think the top, oh, say, 12 to 16 teams are now so much farther above all the rest of the P5 (not just D1) that they are going to look to make their own division that is effectively semi-pro.

The weird thing is, rather than them leaving, it would make more sense for everyone else to tell those teams to get out and make their own league because what they are doing is not "fair" to everyone else... the problem is that most of the rest of the P5, either due to ego (history!!, what about history!?), or due to thinking themselves still on par with those "elite" programs, won't ever throw in the towel and do that. They'll keep on continuing to think they can "get there" if they just spend a little more money or build one more facility or whatever.

The example I keep thinking about is Oklahoma State. T. Boone Pickens was one of the first big-name boosters to commit an insane amount of money (waaaayyy back in the oughts, IIRC?) to his P5 school to make them elite, and it hasn't worked. That example has started to convince me that it's really just name recognition and therefore (?) ESPN coverage that has made the elite schools what they are.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

Seriously doubt that happens Pete. As has been posted by many over the last few years those schools realize they need others to beat up on to look elite. If they shrink to 12-16 they know that several are going to become losers. So most likely to happen is the current P5 just starts making up their own rules on scholarship limits and the such and that is going to really relegate the G5's to obscurity.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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wavedom wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 5:53 pm Seriously doubt that happens Pete. As has been posted by many over the last few years those schools realize they need others to beat up on to look elite. If they shrink to 12-16 they know that several are going to become losers. So most likely to happen is the current P5 just starts making up their own rules on scholarship limits and the such and that is going to really relegate the G5's to obscurity.
Oh, I'm not saying they completely leave... obviously 16 (or whatever) teams can't just play themselves. They'll just be in some sort of situation where they get more benefits than everyone else. They'll still play anyone who wants a huge payday game but at some point it will be like a college team playing a high school team.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

If they do that the others left behind will stick it to them by not playing them as they'll be smart enough to know that that would brand some of those 16 as losers. In other words they have the leverage needed to keep it at 65 teams. We'll see.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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wavedom wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 6:37 pm If they do that the others left behind will stick it to them by not playing them as they'll be smart enough to know that that would brand some of those 16 as losers. In other words they have the leverage needed to keep it at 65 teams. We'll see.
That's the ideal (and from an outsider perspective, logical) outcome. But when those elite teams throw some insane payday number at a program that's struggling to stay afloat and doesn't want to throw in the towel on 100+ years of "D1" (in whatever form) sports, money is going to rule the day as it always does. You and I have always agreed on that part.

Imagine you are in a football contract that pays your school $1.5MM per year (a reasonable number if there is some sort of split of "levels"), and an elite program offers you $6MM to come play a single game at their place - a number unheard of today, but maybe not in this future world - what's the response? "Nope, go suck an egg, you elitist!"? Nah... When you can play a single game and make FOUR TIMES what your conference TV contract pays you for an entire school year of multiple sports?

The numbers are different (and would have to be), but the scenario is not that different from current FCS teams who willingly get themselves destroyed as the homecoming game for SEC and Big 10 teams now.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

I'm talking the other 49 that are currently with those 16. When those 16 break off and say we are going to allow schools to give 120 football scholarships and 20 basketball scholarships the others know their talent level is about to nosedive. So then as I said they'll be smart enough to know to just let them go and eat their own and they'll soon want to come back. Knowing that upfront will keep the 16 in tow before they leave. I'll add I have never seen anything from a credible source to suggest that those 16 are even thinking about doing this. This is where college Presidents can and will step in too.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

One question I have is will there be an on ramp or entry point for schools willing to put in the resources to compete at the highest level but that were left out at the initial split? The sport has expanded and contracted before. When d1 aa was created it knocked a bunch of teams down to that level from d1a, but since then some schools that were knocked down have been able to move up by investing in their provrams enough to meet minimum requirements. Heck some schools that didn't have football then or were d2 have been able to move up to what is now fbs.

If there is no set of criteria that, if you meet them, allows you to move up, then our fate along with many other fbs programs feels sealed. That would be nfl like. They don't expand unless the NFL says so. But if there are minimum number of program requirements, athletic department expenditures, etc that guarantee a path to entry then we have at least an opening. Forgetting us for a moment it's very clear that schools like Memphis and smu believe they belong at that level and are willing to spend to get there so perhaps if we can stay associated with that group we may get a shot at the upper league, even if we would be their version of Mac or cusa.

I'm just hoping lighting strikes twice. I don't think anybody expected us to get a lifeline to the Big East/aac. Maybe something similar happens again. One things for sure, we need to start winning yesterday.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by Roller »

GretnaGrn wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 4:53 pm
tjtlja wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 3:20 pm GretnaGrn, thank you so much. I may need to send you some Tax Code sections I am currently researching (lol).

We are constantly hearing that 4 / 16 team conferences will be formed and break away from the pack. Is there any interplay with anti-trust as it relates to this situation?
Very unlikely. Antitrust cases are extremely difficult and rare.
But that's not to say they are inappropriate.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by waverider »

Where’s Scott Cowen when we need him….{ducks and runs}
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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tulaneoutlaw wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:05 pm One question I have is will there be an on ramp or entry point for schools willing to put in the resources to compete at the highest level but that were left out at the initial split? The sport has expanded and contracted before. When d1 aa was created it knocked a bunch of teams down to that level from d1a, but since then some schools that were knocked down have been able to move up by investing in their provrams enough to meet minimum requirements. Heck some schools that didn't have football then or were d2 have been able to move up to what is now fbs.

If there is no set of criteria that, if you meet them, allows you to move up, then our fate along with many other fbs programs feels sealed. That would be nfl like. They don't expand unless the NFL says so. But if there are minimum number of program requirements, athletic department expenditures, etc that guarantee a path to entry then we have at least an opening. Forgetting us for a moment it's very clear that schools like Memphis and smu believe they belong at that level and are willing to spend to get there so perhaps if we can stay associated with that group we may get a shot at the upper league, even if we would be their version of Mac or cusa.

I'm just hoping lighting strikes twice. I don't think anybody expected us to get a lifeline to the Big East/aac. Maybe something similar happens again. One things for sure, we need to start winning yesterday.
If it comes to the 65 splitting there will be no on ramp. They will format it in a way that makes sure of that.They are going to increase the roster limits for sure to enrich themselves and hurt the rest. It's going to be cold and bloody. They have been saying how it's not fair that some smaller schools who aren't as invested get a say in how they do things. That's been the tell all along. Now that they are so ahead financially they feel safe breaking things up. It's a shame but it is what's likely to happen and happen soon.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tjtlja »

I think there will always be an on ramp, or lifeline for anyone that can generate more eyes. I don’t agree that anyone like a Tulane, Houston, Boise, Cincinnati, BYU, etc., as of today has any say in how the current structure has operated for the past 15 years. I also believe it makes more sense that the new structure includes more than 65 teams (64 + Notre Dame, this number expands to 69 with the additions of Cincinnati, Houston, Central Florida, & BYU). Where is the breaking point, no one knows. This will depend on who can actually bring more money to the table. Due to relationships, politics, and destination cities, you can probably bump 64 to 70-80 teams making up the initial new D1.

The only other scenario is the one Pete outlined. I think this scenario would look something like this -

Notre Dame, Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Texas A&M, Tennessee, lsu, Clemson, North Carolina, Florida State, Miami(FL), Oklahoma, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Nebraska, Iowa, Oregon, Washington, USC, UCLA, and Arizona State. This initial league includes 26 teams. Of course, all of this is very debatable, but these are the teams IMO that currently account for 90% of total revenue. This structure will be football only. Basketball likely accounts for 5% of total revenue, and all other sports combined account for the final 5%. These sports will continue to operate as is.

At the end of the day, whatever model generates substantially more money will prevail. It could be a model we haven’t discussed (perhaps basketball revenue is much higher in another scenario). All of this will go down within the next 5 years and will be incredibly interesting to watch. And with my olive & blue glasses, I do believe we can be a part of several models provided we start winning at a higher level in football and basketball beginning now!
Last edited by tjtlja on Sat May 21, 2022 3:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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Victory is never permanent
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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wavedom wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:22 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:05 pm One question I have is will there be an on ramp or entry point for schools willing to put in the resources to compete at the highest level but that were left out at the initial split? The sport has expanded and contracted before. When d1 aa was created it knocked a bunch of teams down to that level from d1a, but since then some schools that were knocked down have been able to move up by investing in their provrams enough to meet minimum requirements. Heck some schools that didn't have football then or were d2 have been able to move up to what is now fbs.

If there is no set of criteria that, if you meet them, allows you to move up, then our fate along with many other fbs programs feels sealed. That would be nfl like. They don't expand unless the NFL says so. But if there are minimum number of program requirements, athletic department expenditures, etc that guarantee a path to entry then we have at least an opening. Forgetting us for a moment it's very clear that schools like Memphis and smu believe they belong at that level and are willing to spend to get there so perhaps if we can stay associated with that group we may get a shot at the upper league, even if we would be their version of Mac or cusa.

I'm just hoping lighting strikes twice. I don't think anybody expected us to get a lifeline to the Big East/aac. Maybe something similar happens again. One things for sure, we need to start winning yesterday.
If it comes to the 65 splitting there will be no on ramp. They will format it in a way that makes sure of that.They are going to increase the roster limits for sure to enrich themselves and hurt the rest. It's going to be cold and bloody. They have been saying how it's not fair that some smaller schools who aren't as invested get a say in how they do things. That's been the tell all along. Now that they are so ahead financially they feel safe breaking things up. It's a shame but it is what's likely to happen and happen soon.
That's exactly what I'm afraid of. The new 4 b12 schools may have gotten the very last helicopter off the embassy. If that split happens that way I really don't know what schools like Tulane or Rice will do. What's the point in having a program of it's not going to be top level? I doubt bowl access (for whatever that's worth) will be allowed, so maybe there will be some merit in the new fcs to keep the program afloat? It's all very sad. The school has never appreciated how much athletics could supplement the academic mission and now it's going to be too late to do anything about it.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

The lower tier Bowls may still exist but would just be even more meaningless in that scenario. So it will be interesting to see what Tulane and those similar schools do.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by tjtlja »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Sat May 21, 2022 8:33 am
wavedom wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 11:22 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 7:05 pm One question I have is will there be an on ramp or entry point for schools willing to put in the resources to compete at the highest level but that were left out at the initial split? The sport has expanded and contracted before. When d1 aa was created it knocked a bunch of teams down to that level from d1a, but since then some schools that were knocked down have been able to move up by investing in their provrams enough to meet minimum requirements. Heck some schools that didn't have football then or were d2 have been able to move up to what is now fbs.

If there is no set of criteria that, if you meet them, allows you to move up, then our fate along with many other fbs programs feels sealed. That would be nfl like. They don't expand unless the NFL says so. But if there are minimum number of program requirements, athletic department expenditures, etc that guarantee a path to entry then we have at least an opening. Forgetting us for a moment it's very clear that schools like Memphis and smu believe they belong at that level and are willing to spend to get there so perhaps if we can stay associated with that group we may get a shot at the upper league, even if we would be their version of Mac or cusa.

I'm just hoping lighting strikes twice. I don't think anybody expected us to get a lifeline to the Big East/aac. Maybe something similar happens again. One things for sure, we need to start winning yesterday.
If it comes to the 65 splitting there will be no on ramp. They will format it in a way that makes sure of that.They are going to increase the roster limits for sure to enrich themselves and hurt the rest. It's going to be cold and bloody. They have been saying how it's not fair that some smaller schools who aren't as invested get a say in how they do things. That's been the tell all along. Now that they are so ahead financially they feel safe breaking things up. It's a shame but it is what's likely to happen and happen soon.
That's exactly what I'm afraid of. The new 4 b12 schools may have gotten the very last helicopter off the embassy. If that split happens that way I really don't know what schools like Tulane or Rice will do. What's the point in having a program of it's not going to be top level? I doubt bowl access (for whatever that's worth) will be allowed, so maybe there will be some merit in the new fcs to keep the program afloat? It's all very sad. The school has never appreciated how much athletics could supplement the academic mission and now it's going to be too late to do anything about it.
Don’t throw in the towel just yet!
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

We're Tulane diehards. We never throw the towel in.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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I've come to no longer believe the "4 leagues of 16 plus ND" scenario, primarily because I think the last couple of years have really shone a light on how "not power" a lot of the P5 leagues are. The PAC hasn't been relevant since Oregon fell back to earth a couple of years ago**. The Big 12 weakness was exposed last summer after OU and UT announced their departures and people started analyzing the viewership numbers of all games not involving those two (has any Big 12 team other than them even come close to the CFP?). The ACC pretty much has been Clemson and no one else since FSU began to decline.

I had originally said 16 or whatever (above), but I hadn't bothered to try to create of a list. In reality, it would be more: tjtlja's list of 26 above is a pretty solid first stab - I'd quibble with maybe 2 or 3 - at what I'm imagining to be the group that could legitimately leave and get some insane, nothing-we'd-believe-now type of TV deal. That league would be large enough that they could have two conferences (maybe they'd call them something original, like the Big 10 and the SEC 8) ), each with two divisions, and they could legitimately play only amongst themselves. I know we always argue that none of them would like a situation where they "beat up on each other" because someone would have to be a bottom dweller, but TV has shown that viewers don't care about that; look at how people will watch UGA beat up on Vanderbilt or Ohio State beat up on Minnesota. As long as it's hyped by the TV networks as a conference game, and it gets prime network slot coverage, it's going to be watched by the masses by millions.

The mess of the whole thing, regardless of how it shakes out, is obviously all the other sports (tjtlja mentioned that in his same post with the list). How does MBB fall within this deal? A good amount of the teams on the list are either perennially good in hoops or have recently become so (due surely to P5 money) and they would actually have to care a bit about basketball. And how do a bunch of teams that chose to leave everyone behind in a lesser football level "make nice" so that others will still play them in every other sport? The easiest answer would be that it would be like some schools which currently play smaller nonrevenue sports in a completely different league than the one in which their main sports participate... except no one is holding a grudge at the present moment like they would if the football thing happened.



**which is a whole other story, because how is Nike not making sure they win the NIL war???
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

Sorry Pete but even those schools that would be in your leagues are smart enough to know they could be among those that become a loser and they won't want anything to do with that. They'd be losing their jobs left and right. I'll point out again no one is out there advocating for this. Instead you clearly do have the 65 discussing how they should get more say over the rules that govern them.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by gerryb323 »

Arch Manning just committed to Texas. Apropos of nothing.
STOP BUNTING gaddammit!!
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

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gerryb323 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:38 am Arch Manning just committed to Texas. Apropos of nothing.
Not saying that he'd turn down NIL money, but I'd be surprised if that was a factor in his decision.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by PeteRasche »

ml wave wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:39 pm
gerryb323 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:38 am Arch Manning just committed to Texas. Apropos of nothing.
Not saying that he'd turn down NIL money, but I'd be surprised if that was a factor in his decision.
I'd say their leap to the SEC was a big part. Not that it was *the* reason, but if they were staying in the Big 12 he wouldn't be going there. Now Manning gets to be an SEC QB at a school where he doesn't have to live up to the legacy of prior SEC QBs. Go to most other viable SEC schools and he'd be fighting legacies along with opponents.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by ml wave »

PeteRasche wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 3:10 pm
ml wave wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 1:39 pm
gerryb323 wrote: Thu Jun 23, 2022 11:38 am Arch Manning just committed to Texas. Apropos of nothing.
Not saying that he'd turn down NIL money, but I'd be surprised if that was a factor in his decision.
I'd say their leap to the SEC was a big part. Not that it was *the* reason, but if they were staying in the Big 12 he wouldn't be going there. Now Manning gets to be an SEC QB at a school where he doesn't have to live up to the legacy of prior SEC QBs. Go to most other viable SEC schools and he'd be fighting legacies along with opponents.
I don't think he's worried about fighting legacies (he's not going to be able to avoid that wherever he goes) but I agree on the move to the SEC being meaningful.
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Re: ‘Chaotic’ NIL Market

Post by wavedom »

Clearly they are moving to the SEC before 2025.
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