Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF
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Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by TUPF »

Because this thing moves so fast I looked for a website showing granular stats for each country to get an idea of trends. It seems most news outlets are behind in reporting these or even updating their graphics or screen crawlers.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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PSA for certain "won't change me" people:
But of the 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 38 percent were notably younger — between 20 and 54. And nearly half of the 121 patients who were admitted to intensive care units were adults under 65, the C.D.C. reported.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/young ... li=BBnb7Kz
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Awesome link. Bookmarked as soon as read.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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I guess it's one thing to look at infection rates. To me, the most important thing to look at is the mortality rate and # of deaths. Further, dissecting the mortalities and coming up with stats on who is most affected. THEN you can be most effective on saving lives-at-risk. If mortality rates remain low, say at rates similar to other flus, then why are we impacting an entire populace?

At some point, the impact on lives within the economy will outweigh the # of deaths from this virus. For example, if 20 million people become destitute, but there are only 324 deaths, then a value decision must be made. IOW, is the cure worse than the disease? And is the cure REALLY a cure, or does it just postpone infections at a slower rate?

I believe that value decision is coming soon.

BTW, this map is even better:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by gerryb323 »

Rotorooter wrote:I guess it's one thing to look at infection rates. To me, the most important thing to look at is the mortality rate and # of deaths. Further, dissecting the mortalities and coming up with stats on who is most affected. THEN you can be most effective on saving lives-at-risk. If mortality rates remain low, say at rates similar to other flus, then why are we impacting an entire populace?

At some point, the impact on lives within the economy will outweigh the # of deaths from this virus. For example, if 20 million people become destitute, but there are only 324 deaths, then a value decision must be made. IOW, is the cure worse than the disease? And is the cure REALLY a cure, or does it just postpone infections at a slower rate?

I believe that value decision is coming soon.

BTW, this map is even better:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
Mortality rate is also "low" right now because the percentage of symptomatic people is low and the hospitals can keep up. If/when the number of sick is greater than the number that can be treated effectively, mortality will go up (see Italy). Not to mention the people who would need to be treated for other things who cannot be due to medical personnel shortage. So no, self-isolation is not a cure. It helps flatten the curve so medical professionals can try to keep up.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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gerryb323 wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:I guess it's one thing to look at infection rates. To me, the most important thing to look at is the mortality rate and # of deaths. Further, dissecting the mortalities and coming up with stats on who is most affected. THEN you can be most effective on saving lives-at-risk. If mortality rates remain low, say at rates similar to other flus, then why are we impacting an entire populace?

At some point, the impact on lives within the economy will outweigh the # of deaths from this virus. For example, if 20 million people become destitute, but there are only 324 deaths, then a value decision must be made. IOW, is the cure worse than the disease? And is the cure REALLY a cure, or does it just postpone infections at a slower rate?

I believe that value decision is coming soon.

BTW, this map is even better:

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboar ... 7b48e9ecf6
Mortality rate is also "low" right now because the percentage of symptomatic people is low and the hospitals can keep up. If/when the number of sick is greater than the number that can be treated effectively, mortality will go up (see Italy). Not to mention the people who would need to be treated for other things who cannot be due to medical personnel shortage. So no, self-isolation is not a cure. It helps flatten the curve so medical professionals can try to keep up.
Agree. That scenario is already being played out in the New Rochelle, NY area. Medical facilities overwhelmed so that ER doctors are starting to make triage decisions. I get what Roto is saying but if we don’t get a flattened curve handle on this, it won’t really matter why you need medical help—heart attack, car accident, gun violence, etc.—it all goes into the same triage pot.

Here is an article which better summarizes the inflection point we are in.

https://apple.news/AopOTkSCRRT6r4sBErUDyTA
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Again, you have to look at the mortality rate stats, along with the infection rate stats, to determine WHO should be at a social distance. Italy is somewhat non-comparable in that the elderly population of Italy, per capita, is much higher than that of the U.S. From what I have read, most of the mortality in Italy has come from an elderly populace in the Lombardy region (northern Italy). I'm sure infections have come from other parts, but I am sure the mortality stats will tell us trends. I get flattening the curve to help hospital workers, but as we watch the trend lines, value judgements have to be made as part of the equation.

What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
The French are using it success. Not sure what you are talking about.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Rotorooter wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
The French are using it success. Not sure what you are talking about.
Science > opinion. By all means pursue the clinical trials or throw it in when you’ve got nothing else to lose, but we are a long way from a cure.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51980731
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by windywave »

TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
The French are using it success. Not sure what you are talking about.
Science > opinion. By all means pursue the clinical trials or throw it in when you’ve got nothing else to lose, but we are a long way from a cure.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51980731
The Aussie's French and Chinese have all used it alone or as a combination with really frick good success (Oz is now using it in every hospital since their combination treatment was 100% successful). You forget we may be shutting down the frick economy but government bureaucracy isn't shutting down and they aren't losing their jobs. The drug is approved for human use. The drug has known side effects. There is no reason the drug should not be administered at the request of the patient since it is abundant and cheap. People would generally be no worse off taking it. If it just mutes 20% of cases or 100% you don't think that would be beneficial to the healthcare infrastructure or the economy?
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Rotorooter wrote:Again, you have to look at the mortality rate stats, along with the infection rate stats, to determine WHO should be at a social distance. Italy is somewhat non-comparable in that the elderly population of Italy, per capita, is much higher than that of the U.S. From what I have read, most of the mortality in Italy has come from an elderly populace in the Lombardy region (northern Italy). I'm sure infections have come from other parts, but I am sure the mortality stats will tell us trends. I get flattening the curve to help hospital workers, but as we watch the trend lines, value judgements have to be made as part of the equation.
More of the "how this affects me" viewpoint. I have doctor friends who are on the front lines, who are literally working with infected people, with people who have been dealing with infected people, and in hospitals which have held infected people (every surface could have contagion). Do you think any of them are considering whether the stuff we're being asked to do is worth the hassle, the economic impact, etc.? Again, if your grandparent, parent, spouse, or child is the one who is dying and some doctor somewhere has to make the call whether it's them or someone else who lives, is your opinion, "meh, let 'em die, I'd rather people keep their jobs and the economy recover"? You're implying that it would be fair to put doctors in this position simply because some aspect of this (economic, social, whatever is bothering you so much) is a hassle FOR YOU.

One of our best friends owns a chain of pediatric dentistry offices. This guy is fantastic with kids, is a great dentist, has a magic touch financially (everywhere he's opened a new office has been the next suburb to "blow up" population-wise so he's killing it), yet he's the most unassuming, friendly, country-kind person you could ever want to know. This past week he had to close all of his locations and lay off every one of his employees, so they can either claim unemployment or find work somewhere else temporarily (groceries, Amazon, whatever). It's killing him. He put his whole life into that. Is he saying "we're going overboard, this is stupid, the government is killing my business"? No, he and his wife are screaming on social media about distancing, quarantining, everything the government wants us to do. Because he isn't worried about himself, he's worried about getting things back to normal sooner, and about not overwhelming our friends in the hospitals.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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windywave wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
The French are using it success. Not sure what you are talking about.
Science > opinion. By all means pursue the clinical trials or throw it in when you’ve got nothing else to lose, but we are a long way from a cure.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51980731
The Aussie's French and Chinese have all used it alone or as a combination with really frick good success (Oz is now using it in every hospital since their combination treatment was 100% successful). You forget we may be shutting down the frick economy but government bureaucracy isn't shutting down and they aren't losing their jobs. The drug is approved for human use. The drug has known side effects. There is no reason the drug should not be administered at the request of the patient since it is abundant and cheap. People would generally be no worse off taking it. If it just mutes 20% of cases or 100% you don't think that would be beneficial to the healthcare infrastructure or the economy?
That’s not what I said. If I have run out of bullets I’d throw anything I can at it it. I am as old as I am because I underwent experimental surgery at NIH when I was 9 that then had a success rate of 50%. Take a chance, use whatever you can, FDA off label or not, but don’t take your eye off the ball.

Just don’t peddle this as a cure and have people relax from what authoritarian China has shown us what in the near term works—physical distancing to break the infection train. Delaware’s governor just ordered the beaches closed because he toured there yesterday and saw throngs of spring breakers partying as usual. I have moronic neighbors who have all their kids playing together like this is one big snow day. Stupid is as stupid does.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by windywave »

TUPF wrote:
windywave wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
The French are using it success. Not sure what you are talking about.
Science > opinion. By all means pursue the clinical trials or throw it in when you’ve got nothing else to lose, but we are a long way from a cure.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51980731
The Aussie's French and Chinese have all used it alone or as a combination with really frick good success (Oz is now using it in every hospital since their combination treatment was 100% successful). You forget we may be shutting down the frick economy but government bureaucracy isn't shutting down and they aren't losing their jobs. The drug is approved for human use. The drug has known side effects. There is no reason the drug should not be administered at the request of the patient since it is abundant and cheap. People would generally be no worse off taking it. If it just mutes 20% of cases or 100% you don't think that would be beneficial to the healthcare infrastructure or the economy?
That’s not what I said. If I have run out of bullets I’d throw anything I can at it it. I am as old as I am because I underwent experimental surgery at NIH when I was 9 that then had a success rate of 50%. Take a chance, use whatever you can, FDA off label or not, but don’t take your eye off the ball.

Just don’t peddle this as a cure and have people relax from what authoritarian China has shown us what in the near term works—physical distancing to break the infection train. Delaware’s governor just ordered the beaches closed because he toured there yesterday and saw throngs of spring breakers partying as usual. I have moronic neighbors who have all their kids playing together like this is one big snow day. Stupid is as stupid does.
You said to put it in trials.or use as a last resort. Why? Why not just use it? Other countries have done the trials. Do you know why we have a shortage of tests. The CDC decided to build their own. Meh why use the WHO one that works? The entrenched bureaucracy of this country is hindering the response. Distillers and perfumers in France making hand sanitizer, the FDA regulates it as a drug. You worked in and around government long enough to know its bureaucracy is a sclerotic roadblock to almost everything.

Right now we should be in a war economy for PPE, vents, temp hospitals, prepared to vacate IP and have all drug makers ready to start churning out drugs that show efficacy. We aren't and our GDP will be negative 10 to 20 percent this quarter.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
You know, TUPF, you could express your concern about the status of these trials without the snide political comment. There used to be rules on here.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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PeteRasche wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:Again, you have to look at the mortality rate stats, along with the infection rate stats, to determine WHO should be at a social distance. Italy is somewhat non-comparable in that the elderly population of Italy, per capita, is much higher than that of the U.S. From what I have read, most of the mortality in Italy has come from an elderly populace in the Lombardy region (northern Italy). I'm sure infections have come from other parts, but I am sure the mortality stats will tell us trends. I get flattening the curve to help hospital workers, but as we watch the trend lines, value judgements have to be made as part of the equation.
More of the "how this affects me" viewpoint. I have doctor friends who are on the front lines, who are literally working with infected people, with people who have been dealing with infected people, and in hospitals which have held infected people (every surface could have contagion). Do you think any of them are considering whether the stuff we're being asked to do is worth the hassle, the economic impact, etc.? Again, if your grandparent, parent, spouse, or child is the one who is dying and some doctor somewhere has to make the call whether it's them or someone else who lives, is your opinion, "meh, let 'em die, I'd rather people keep their jobs and the economy recover"? You're implying that it would be fair to put doctors in this position simply because some aspect of this (economic, social, whatever is bothering you so much) is a hassle FOR YOU.

One of our best friends owns a chain of pediatric dentistry offices. This guy is fantastic with kids, is a great dentist, has a magic touch financially (everywhere he's opened a new office has been the next suburb to "blow up" population-wise so he's killing it), yet he's the most unassuming, friendly, country-kind person you could ever want to know. This past week he had to close all of his locations and lay off every one of his employees, so they can either claim unemployment or find work somewhere else temporarily (groceries, Amazon, whatever). It's killing him. He put his whole life into that. Is he saying "we're going overboard, this is stupid, the government is killing my business"? No, he and his wife are screaming on social media about distancing, quarantining, everything the government wants us to do. Because he isn't worried about himself, he's worried about getting things back to normal sooner, and about not overwhelming our friends in the hospitals.
No, Pete, it has everything to do with cost/benefit. I get the fact that flattening the curve is a good strategy. BUT AT SOME POINT, it does not. To use my example, if 20M people are suffering major hardship (and potential life-deteriorating circumstances) at the expense of 300 deaths, and of those 300 we have data on those most affected and anyone in that affected group can get priority treatment, then it is unreasonable to shut an entire world down if the mortality rate is so low. Granted, we are not there yet, but at some point in the near future we will be.

The best analogy I can think of is why is the speed limit 70 instead of 30 when driving 30 saves lives? Because the cost to society is too high vs the risk of death rates growing due to faster speeds. Or dropping an atomic bomb that kills 100,000 people instead of prolonging a war that would kill 10x that many.

You cannot save everyone, Pete, from every potential thing that kills them. Sorry to say, but that's life. We try as we might. May we find a cure or vaccine quickly--that is the best possible scenario.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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CT Wave wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
You know, TUPF, you could express your concern about the status of these trials without the snide political comment. There used to be rules on here.
You have a point and I apologize.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by TUPF »

windywave wrote:
TUPF wrote:
windywave wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:
TUPF wrote:
Rotorooter wrote:What baffles me is that there is a theory being floated that chloroquine, a chemical that has been around for 50+ years to treat malaria, is being seen as an effective cure. Not a vaccine, but a cure. It is not in short supply. I am wondering why this has not been verified and, if so, aired by the media.
It doesn’t help when we have someone speaking from the podium without any semblance of medical knowledge with a “good feeling” about that. :roll:
The French are using it success. Not sure what you are talking about.
Science > opinion. By all means pursue the clinical trials or throw it in when you’ve got nothing else to lose, but we are a long way from a cure.

https://www.bbc.com/news/51980731
The Aussie's French and Chinese have all used it alone or as a combination with really frick good success (Oz is now using it in every hospital since their combination treatment was 100% successful). You forget we may be shutting down the frick economy but government bureaucracy isn't shutting down and they aren't losing their jobs. The drug is approved for human use. The drug has known side effects. There is no reason the drug should not be administered at the request of the patient since it is abundant and cheap. People would generally be no worse off taking it. If it just mutes 20% of cases or 100% you don't think that would be beneficial to the healthcare infrastructure or the economy?
That’s not what I said. If I have run out of bullets I’d throw anything I can at it it. I am as old as I am because I underwent experimental surgery at NIH when I was 9 that then had a success rate of 50%. Take a chance, use whatever you can, FDA off label or not, but don’t take your eye off the ball.

Just don’t peddle this as a cure and have people relax from what authoritarian China has shown us what in the near term works—physical distancing to break the infection train. Delaware’s governor just ordered the beaches closed because he toured there yesterday and saw throngs of spring breakers partying as usual. I have moronic neighbors who have all their kids playing together like this is one big snow day. Stupid is as stupid does.
You said to put it in trials.or use as a last resort. Why? Why not just use it? Other countries have done the trials. Do you know why we have a shortage of tests. The CDC decided to build their own. Meh why use the WHO one that works? The entrenched bureaucracy of this country is hindering the response. Distillers and perfumers in France making hand sanitizer, the FDA regulates it as a drug. You worked in and around government long enough to know its bureaucracy is a sclerotic roadblock to almost everything.

Right now we should be in a war economy for PPE, vents, temp hospitals, prepared to vacate IP and have all drug makers ready to start churning out drugs that show efficacy. We aren't and our GDP will be negative 10 to 20 percent this quarter.
You make good points. The testing arrogance is the most confounding. I understand why antibacterials are regulated but these are not normal times. However, this is also a time where the unscrupulous send things like ads to my inbox for “coronavirus essential oil cures”, so there’s that.

As for a wartime economy you are 100% correct and I don’t understand the reluctance of this administration to fully invoke the Defense Production Act. We can’t keep just playing catch-up.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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All I know is, should I get diagnosed as having the disease, I will prevail upon my Doctor to say I have malaria and prescribe some hydrochloroquine. Maybe it's a mistaken assumption by some French quack who didn't use the "scientific method," and maybe it won't have any effect. But a shot in the dark is better than waiting for disaster to come over you. And believe me, as far as I'm concerned, my death would be a disaster.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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45 minute coronavirus test approved today and rolling out shortly.

https://apple.news/Awo64-d-kRmOXj1B2a45gPA

”The diagnostic test for the virus that causes COVID-19 has been designed to operate on any of Cepheid’s more than 23,000 automated GeneXpert Systems globally, the company said, without giving details. The systems do not require users to have specialty training to perform testing, and are capable of running around the clock, Cepheid President Warren Kocmond said in the statement.”
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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A private company, whattaya know? Unleash the capitalist beast.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Rotorooter wrote:A private company, whattaya know? Unleash the capitalist beast.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Don't tell me, I already know; tell Bernie.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by AO Sig »

Read an interesting article sent to me about Germany; as of Thursday afternoon they had identified nearly 14,000 cases, but had only 42 deaths. One theory was that they are able to screen a lot more people; have been able to test 160,000 a week, and maybe more mild cases. Also had seen younger people infected; 80% were under 60.

To contrast, South Korea had been doing about 15,000 tests a week.

The new rapid test, if they can get enough tests done, will help immensely. If carriers and those who are positive (and potentially able to infect people) but not yet symptomatic can be identified, then it can be reduced big time.

One problem I learned during a conference call yesterday was that some of the tests that were initially offered the U.S. had a 45% inaccuracy rate; in other words, just as accurate as flipping a coin
What if the Hokey Pokey really is what it's all about?
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by TUPF »

Rotorooter wrote:Don't tell me, I already know; tell Bernie.
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