Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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gerryb323
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by gerryb323 »

BACONWAVE wrote:
gerryb323 wrote:
BACONWAVE wrote:
BACONWAVE wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:Whoa. Where did you see it can spread through AC? I work in that industry and have seen nothing of the sort.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandras ... b6efa9df8f
What? In what would would you need to wait 3 or 4 months?!
Chen says the most essential practice around air-conditioning and COVID-19 is to avoid hanging out near air conditioning exhaust, as this is where COVID-19 particles may be trapped, saying that if you can wait three to four months to change your air conditioning filter, you should; otherwise, use gloves and discard the filter in a trash bag immediately.

There are many other links if you want to go read them.. just google search...I am not going through each with a fine tooth comb....point still is that indoors AC can spread virus....others also say that places without HVAC units are high risk.
I just think there's a difference between "by AC" and "through AC"
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PeteRasche
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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I've read those stories and I'm laughing at the lack of understanding of HVAC. In, like, so many different ways.

Every single study of the virus says it does not stay airborne unless literally atomized (with a machine, a sneeze doesn't truly atomize)... Even if so, it's not floating up into a return grille, passing through multiple right turns in the ductwork, passing through a filter, a fan, a heating coil and a cooling coil, and multiple more right turns, coming out of a diffuser, and floating around in the air until someone inhales it.

This is not a concern; if AC could pass the virus from a space, there'd be millions more cases and millions dead. In fact, we'd already be dead from other viruses spreading that way.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by BACONWAVE »

gerryb323 wrote:
BACONWAVE wrote:
gerryb323 wrote:
BACONWAVE wrote:
BACONWAVE wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:Whoa. Where did you see it can spread through AC? I work in that industry and have seen nothing of the sort.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexandras ... b6efa9df8f
What? In what would would you need to wait 3 or 4 months?!
Chen says the most essential practice around air-conditioning and COVID-19 is to avoid hanging out near air conditioning exhaust, as this is where COVID-19 particles may be trapped, saying that if you can wait three to four months to change your air conditioning filter, you should; otherwise, use gloves and discard the filter in a trash bag immediately.

There are many other links if you want to go read them.. just google search...I am not going through each with a fine tooth comb....point still is that indoors AC can spread virus....others also say that places without HVAC units are high risk.
I just think there's a difference between "by AC" and "through AC"
Some also say can go through AC.....

https://www.acca.org/news/guest-blog/co ... indoor-air

https://bestlifeonline.com/does-air-con ... ronavirus/

https://www.achrnews.com/articles/14280 ... c-industry
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by BACONWAVE »

PeteRasche wrote:I've read those stories and I'm laughing at the lack of understanding of HVAC. In, like, so many different ways.

Every single study of the virus says it does not stay airborne unless literally atomized (with a machine, a sneeze doesn't truly atomize)... Even if so, it's not floating up into a return grille, passing through multiple right turns in the ductwork, passing through a filter, a fan, a heating coil and a cooling coil, and multiple more right turns, coming out of a diffuser, and floating around in the air until someone inhales it.

This is not a concern; if AC could pass the virus from a space, there'd be millions more cases and millions dead. In fact, we'd already be dead from other viruses spreading that way.
I am no means a pro....but if they are wrong in these articles.....they are alot of experts in the AC field that should lose their jobs.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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BACONWAVE wrote:
tjtlja wrote:Great points made by everyone. All I want to say, or ask, is that you say a prayer for my wife (a nurse for 35 years) who currently has the virus. God willing she will beat this, and so will the rest of us. God bless!
Hey man I know we have had fun on baseball forums before...but may your wife have a speedy recovery!
Bacon, thank you.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by PeteRasche »

BACONWAVE wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:I've read those stories and I'm laughing at the lack of understanding of HVAC. In, like, so many different ways.

Every single study of the virus says it does not stay airborne unless literally atomized (with a machine, a sneeze doesn't truly atomize)... Even if so, it's not floating up into a return grille, passing through multiple right turns in the ductwork, passing through a filter, a fan, a heating coil and a cooling coil, and multiple more right turns, coming out of a diffuser, and floating around in the air until someone inhales it.

This is not a concern; if AC could pass the virus from a space, there'd be millions more cases and millions dead. In fact, we'd already be dead from other viruses spreading that way.
I am no means a pro....but if they are wrong in these articles.....they are alot of experts in the AC field that should lose their jobs.
I very well may have missed something but I didn't see experts in the AC field quoted in these articles, I saw researchers in viral transmission and people working at universities. Pretty much none of those types have any inkling of how actual HVAC systems are designed and built or how air actually flows. They probably think HVAC is like what you see in movies where you can crawl through the ducts when you need to escape a bad guy or break into a building... big, roomy, straight corridors with smooth airflow and no impediments... and all the air flies down the middle without hitting the walls. Hate to break anyone's fantasies but actual systems wouldn't even be as roomy as the kind that allowed John McLain to defeat Hans Gruber... :lol:

I've read a lot about transmission of the virus in the past month. Basically, if you sneeze, there are droplets carrying it which can travel varying distances. The six foot rule was determined based on the decay rate of "viable" virus volume; testing and scientific modeling determined that beyond six feet, there was no real viable amount of virus that could cause transmission. The way I read that first story from China was this: if you sneeze, there's a cloud of droplets which could infect those around you, but what if you are sitting with a big fan blowing across you when you sneezed? The droplets can be carried by the fan farther than six feet! Duh. Though... I suppose when you think about the general stupidity of people in general (think warning labels on products which seem common sense and how they are there because someone tried it) and the horrible HVAC installations I've sometimes seen in places (I'm sure that restaurant in question in China was high quality... the writing strongly suggested that HVAC was both a rare luxury and a devil you should not indulge in)... it's worth mentioning to people that they shouldn't sit downstream of a large volume fan and sneeze because it could carry droplets more than six feet. But commercial HVAC spreading the virus through buildings? No. And the whole thing about filters made no sense at all.

By the way, US hospitals are already designed with many of the concepts they suggest - or at least the operating and treatment areas are.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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tjtlja wrote:Great points made by everyone. All I want to say, or ask, is that you say a prayer for my wife (a nurse for 35 years) who currently has the virus. God willing she will beat this, and so will the rest of us. God bless!
Whoa. Here’s hoping your wife is as comfortable as possible weathering the storm. I got to know the medical fraternity surrounding my sister, a former ER charge nurse, and can say there are none better. Nurses and MDs look out for each other like no one else. Several times a week I trade messages with my sister’s former fellow ER doctors and nurses in San Clemente to wish them well in the fight, and I am sure you do the same.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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tjtlja, I hope that your wife recovers and quickly, without too much discomfort. Keep us informed. I, for one, will be praying for her.

Baconwave, while I agree with Pete, IF those "experts" are right (personally, I think they are just trying to sell new HVACs or services for cleaning them, but that's just the cynic in me), then it is only a matter of time before everyone gets it, we might as well face up to it. Maybe the Sweden plan of "herd-immunity" is better for us than waiting for it to hit because if the HVAC is true, then there is no stopping it. Either that, or it is going to be a long, hot summer and a long, cold winter.

Again, never forget that publications are there to sell more magazines, ezines, more eyeballs on their articles so as to sell more ad space. History is filled with over-sensationalized articles.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by tjtlja »

Guys, thank you so much.

The days are long and have a lot of ups and downs. Her signs were like so many, it seemed like it was allergies. The loss of smell and breathlessness (especially when talking) have been prevalent throughout. Breathing exercises have really helped. In addition, she is home now and getting some sun when she feels up to it, and that has been helpful. Also, drinking lots of water has had a positive effect.

Personally, I didn’t know one relative or friend who had the virus. My wife is very healthy and though she was at risk, none of the nurses in our family or network of friends have contracted it. In fact, most of them work with COVID-19 patients all day long, whereas my wife works in labor & delivery. Just be careful and practice what they preach. The respiratory aspect of this virus is so worrisome.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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tjtlja wrote:Personally, I didn’t know one relative or friend who had the virus. My wife is very healthy and though she was at risk, none of the nurses in our family or network of friends have contracted it. In fact, most of them work with COVID-19 patients all day long, whereas my wife works in labor & delivery. Just be careful and practice what they preach. The respiratory aspect of this virus is so worrisome.
My stint in the old days as a RADCON officer working with alpha contaminated items taught me that the spread of nasties is like being a hockey goaliie except if there are a thousand shots on goal, you still lose if you let only one goal through. I bet if your wife did contact tracing working in labor and delivery, there were a thousand touches from both inside the hospital and well wishing dads and relatives and vendors from outside the hospital. The more touches the more difficult to control the first order, and second and third order touches. That’s why in the RADCON world we set up CSCAs—Controlled Surface Contamination Areas—where we transition folks in and out of hot zones and just assume they are crapped up and decontaminate everything and everybody that passes through. I doubt any place outside of Fort Dietrich does that for biological nasties. On the plus side, COVID-19 has a half life of only 6 hours or so, so it’s a lot more forgiving than radiological contamination.

Anyway, we trust that you and your family are taking loads of precautions isolating yourselves. Us older guys don’t seem to have a lot of fun if we contract the virus even if it does not result in an ER visit.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Official statement from ASHRAE:
"Ventilation and filtration provided by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems can reduce the airborne concentration of SARS-CoV-2 and thus the risk of transmission through the air. Unconditioned spaces can cause thermal stress to people that may be directly life threatening and that may also lower resistance to infection. In general, disabling of heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems is not a recommended measure to reduce the transmission of the virus."

In other words, you are safer with air conditioning than without. ...like I thought.

I also should mention that the only legit HVAC-related story linked above (as far as being statements by people who know HVAC rather than scientists involved in viruses) is the quote from "ACHR News"... the main guy quoted, Bill Bahnfleth, is someone I somewhat know. Ironically he was supposed to be the April speaker at our local ASHRAE chapter April meeting which obviously was canceled (I was the president of the local chapter last year and preliminarily arranged the dinner). His dad was from Cincinnati and was worldwide Society president years ago, and after he passed away our chapter set up a memorial fund in his name. His son Bill, quoted here, was Society president years ago as well, but is a professor at Penn State and lives there now. I read his quotes in this story and my take on it is "wow, he's covering his *ss to make sure no one comes back on him in case there's ever a lawsuit where someone claims HVAC caused someone to get it". Lots of "coulds" and "it's possibles". Can't blame him in that venue but I strongly suspect he doesn't think HVAC spread is a concern.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Great, scratch item 400 off the list.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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PeteRasche wrote:Official statement from ASHRAE:
"Ventilation and filtration provided by heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems can reduce the airborne concentration of SARS-CoV-2 and thus the risk of transmission through the air. Unconditioned spaces can cause thermal stress to people that may be directly life threatening and that may also lower resistance to infection. In general, disabling of heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning systems is not a recommended measure to reduce the transmission of the virus."

In other words, you are safer with air conditioning than without. ...like I thought.

I also should mention that the only legit HVAC-related story linked above (as far as being statements by people who know HVAC rather than scientists involved in viruses) is the quote from "ACHR News"... the main guy quoted, Bill Bahnfleth, is someone I somewhat know. Ironically he was supposed to be the April speaker at our local ASHRAE chapter April meeting which obviously was canceled (I was the president of the local chapter last year and preliminarily arranged the dinner). His dad was from Cincinnati and was worldwide Society president years ago, and after he passed away our chapter set up a memorial fund in his name. His son Bill, quoted here, was Society president years ago as well, but is a professor at Penn State and lives there now. I read his quotes in this story and my take on it is "wow, he's covering his *ss to make sure no one comes back on him in case there's ever a lawsuit where someone claims HVAC caused someone to get it". Lots of "coulds" and "it's possibles". Can't blame him in that venue but I strongly suspect he doesn't think HVAC spread is a concern.
Yeah, he basically said similar to what you had said
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Wow, best of luck tj.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Now that several states are moving to open things up, and more than a few talking heads talk about herd immunity, here is something to consider.

If you do any reading on herd immunity, the medical community agrees that 70-80% of a population needs to have been exposed to a virus. Without a vaccine, the death rate is running around 5% (56,000 deaths from 1M confirmed cases). Even if you say we are under counting exposed people by a factor of ten and 10M are currently exposed, and the death rate is “only” 0.5%; with US population of 330M, if 70% are exposed without a vaccine with a death rate of just 0.5%, that means over 1M people must die to achieve herd immunity.

And that’s without knowing whether folks can be reinfected, thus not really immune from the first exposure.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF wrote:Now that several states are moving to open things up, and more than a few talking heads talk about herd immunity, here is something to consider.

If you do any reading on herd immunity, the medical community agrees that 70-80% of a population needs to have been exposed to a virus. Without a vaccine, the death rate is running around 5% (56,000 deaths from 1M confirmed cases). Even if you say we are under counting exposed people by a factor of ten and 10M are currently exposed, and the death rate is “only” 0.5%; with US population of 330M, if 70% are exposed without a vaccine with a death rate of just 0.5%, that means over 1M people must die to achieve herd immunity.

And that’s without knowing whether folks can be reinfected, thus not really immune from the first exposure.
Why did we shutdown the country and shelter in place? (Both things I fully support for the record)
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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windywave wrote:
TUPF wrote:Now that several states are moving to open things up, and more than a few talking heads talk about herd immunity, here is something to consider.

If you do any reading on herd immunity, the medical community agrees that 70-80% of a population needs to have been exposed to a virus. Without a vaccine, the death rate is running around 5% (56,000 deaths from 1M confirmed cases). Even if you say we are under counting exposed people by a factor of ten and 10M are currently exposed, and the death rate is “only” 0.5%; with US population of 330M, if 70% are exposed without a vaccine with a death rate of just 0.5%, that means over 1M people must die to achieve herd immunity.

And that’s without knowing whether folks can be reinfected, thus not really immune from the first exposure.
Why did we shutdown the country and shelter in place? (Both things I fully support for the record)
I agreed and continue to agree with the shutdown and shelter as do you. I just tried to put some numbers on that term of herd immunity bandied about since the beginning. It seemed mostly abstract in early March but now we are easily going to blow through 60,000 deaths.

Now that states are reopening without really solving the problem, I think a Mae West curve of deaths peaking later in the year is almost inevitable.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF wrote:
windywave wrote:
TUPF wrote:Now that several states are moving to open things up, and more than a few talking heads talk about herd immunity, here is something to consider.

If you do any reading on herd immunity, the medical community agrees that 70-80% of a population needs to have been exposed to a virus. Without a vaccine, the death rate is running around 5% (56,000 deaths from 1M confirmed cases). Even if you say we are under counting exposed people by a factor of ten and 10M are currently exposed, and the death rate is “only” 0.5%; with US population of 330M, if 70% are exposed without a vaccine with a death rate of just 0.5%, that means over 1M people must die to achieve herd immunity.

And that’s without knowing whether folks can be reinfected, thus not really immune from the first exposure.
Why did we shutdown the country and shelter in place? (Both things I fully support for the record)
I agreed and continue to agree with the shutdown and shelter as do you. I just tried to put some numbers on that term of herd immunity bandied about since the beginning. It seemed mostly abstract in early March but now we are easily going to blow through 60,000 deaths.

Now that states are reopening without really solving the problem, I think a Mae West curve of deaths peaking later in the year is almost inevitable.
Let's say 1MM are going to die. The shutdown was to make sure 1MM didn't hit in March but would be spread out over time
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Now what?

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-meat- ... 1eccf.html

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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Rotorooter wrote:Now what?

https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-meat- ... 1eccf.html

Risking one trade-off for another.
WTF you talking about?
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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If that's not a clickbait, attempt-to-induce-panic headline, I don't know what is.

But nonetheless, this whole story (headline or not) rather proves that social distancing and stay-at-home is a good idea, no? Here we have an industry where the workers were required to continue working in fairly close quarters (instead of "that damn government telling me to stay home") and everyone is getting sick and hospitalized and the places are shutting down from lack of labor. So maybe, just maybe, staying away from each other was actually a good idea.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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PeteRasche wrote:
If that's not a clickbait, attempt-to-induce-panic headline, I don't know what is.

But nonetheless, this whole story (headline or not) rather proves that social distancing and stay-at-home is a good idea, no? Here we have an industry where the workers were required to continue working in fairly close quarters (instead of "that damn government telling me to stay home") and everyone is getting sick and hospitalized and the places are shutting down from lack of labor. So maybe, just maybe, staying away from each other was actually a good idea.
nope.. this whole thing has been overblown... we should have been like Sweden and just protected the elderly and the infirm... and just let herd immunity take over...

what? Sweden has nationalized health care? what? Sweden doesn't have an enormous part of its population under the poverty line.. people who have to rely on mass transit, that cram multi-generational families into small apartments, and subsist on less than exemplary diets because they can't afford to buy healthy foods? what? Sweden has a total population that's just above half of metro New York City? But, but, but, all of the pundits we should be listening to are all pointing to how we should have been like Sweden... why would they mislead us so??
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Then there's this:
Trump plans to order meat processing plants to stay open during coronavirus
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/trump ... li=BBnb7Kz

Not wanting this thread to go political, but... :roll:
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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PeteRasche wrote:Then there's this:
Trump plans to order meat processing plants to stay open during coronavirus
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/trump ... li=BBnb7Kz

Not wanting this thread to go political, but... :roll:
I mean, hamberders...
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Potential treatment looking good (enough so that stock markets are up worldwide as of this writing on the basis of this):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... li=BBnb7Kz
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