Near real time COVID-19 statistics

[Johnny Mac]

Potential treatment looking good (enough so that stock markets are up worldwide as of this writing on the basis of this):
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/compani ... li=BBnb7Kz

I've seen this same basic article at least 3 times since March.. China allegedly used it with some success and there have been other articles referring to it being used.

[PeteRasche]

Norway (strong quarantine moves) vs. Sweden (famously not concerned). Dr. Kasten analyzes the twin countries' results (and adds a rare bit of humor). Epidemiologically, Sweden chose... poorly.

https://www.facebook.com/10055359159758 ... 825245231/

[TUPF]

Remdesivir antiviral drug showing promise, backed by actual science.

https://apple.news/Ayzt9MJxdS-enjmEpaHHdDA

[PeteRasche]

Remdesivir antiviral drug showing promise, backed by actual science.
https://apple.news/Ayzt9MJxdS-enjmEpaHHdDA

That's the one I mentioned in the link yesterday.

[CT Wave]

Norway (strong quarantine moves) vs. Sweden (famously not concerned). Dr. Kasten analyzes the twin countries' results (and adds a rare bit of humor). Epidemiologically, Sweden chose... poorly.

https://www.facebook.com/10055359159758 ... 825245231/

Some comments after his post suggesting the jury is still out:

Jo Renn Though when you say "Norway by a mile" that is only if you use "deaths to date" as the only scorecard. Many who aim to "flatten the curve" assume that just about everyone will be exposed at some point, and the final death toll will be whatever it will be. What if the goal is to just flatten the curve to make sure that healthcare systems are not overwhelmed? So far, Sweden seems to be fairly successful at that, and doing it at much less cost to the economy and human welfare. It may be that the two countries wind up with similar death tolls in the long run, but that Sweden just gets there more quickly. I think the experiment is still very much in progress.

Jennifer L Kasten, MD, MSc, MSc Current scorecard: Norway by a mile. Ultimate scorecard depends on many unknowns.

Caillin Langmann Gotta agree with Jo Renn. The point to this front line ER physician was to prevent hospitals being overwhelmed. Sweden did that and preserved social and economic factors - that's a huge score card all on its own. Not to mention factoring in QALY costs for life saved etc.
In the long run, I don't see how Norway isn't going to have a resurgence in cases and get where Sweden is, unless contact surveillance is extremely effective or some magic makes the virus go away.

[TUPF]

An Interactive Visualization of the Spread of COVID-19

http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

[PeteRasche]

Panic Headlining at its finest:
A mutant coronavirus has emerged, even more contagious than the original, study says
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz

WHOA, right??? Then you read the story and discover that this "mutant version" is the version which has been in America the whole time (at least the East Coast spread) and Europe from early on ... the story is written as though "hey, we just learned that scientists months ago discovered this but we're going to write about it like it's a change to what's going on so it scares you and you read it". And it's almost like the story is trying to say between the lines that what we are experiencing is NOT the Wuhan, China version that first started spreading (a little sly political angling to push back against the "China Flu" crowd, perhaps?). Hey, let's call it the "European Flu"!

The mutation identified in the new report affects the now infamous spikes on the exterior of the coronavirus, which allow it to enter human respiratory cells. The report’s authors said they felt an “urgent need for an early warning” so that vaccines and drugs under development around the world will be effective against the mutated strain.

Wherever the new strain appeared, it quickly infected far more people than the earlier strains that came out of Wuhan, China, and within weeks it was the only strain that was prevalent in some nations, according to the report. The new strain’s dominance over its predecessors demonstrates that it is more infectious, according to the report, though exactly why is not yet known.

[Johnny Mac]

Panic Headlining at its finest:
A mutant coronavirus has emerged, even more contagious than the original, study says
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz

WHOA, right??? Then you read the story and discover that this "mutant version" is the version which has been in America the whole time (at least the East Coast spread) and Europe from early on ... the story is written as though "hey, we just learned that scientists months ago discovered this but we're going to write about it like it's a change to what's going on so it scares you and you read it". And it's almost like the story is trying to say between the lines that what we are experiencing is NOT the Wuhan, China version that first started spreading (a little sly political angling to push back against the "China Flu" crowd, perhaps?). Hey, let's call it the "European Flu"!

The mutation identified in the new report affects the now infamous spikes on the exterior of the coronavirus, which allow it to enter human respiratory cells. The report’s authors said they felt an “urgent need for an early warning” so that vaccines and drugs under development around the world will be effective against the mutated strain.

Wherever the new strain appeared, it quickly infected far more people than the earlier strains that came out of Wuhan, China, and within weeks it was the only strain that was prevalent in some nations, according to the report. The new strain’s dominance over its predecessors demonstrates that it is more infectious, according to the report, though exactly why is not yet known.

there was a story on the local news last night that one of the vaccines that's going into clinical trials is not your typical "let's give them an inert copy of the virus so the body builds antibodies" vaccine.. I found references to it on NPR and other sites.. from the NYT: "(Pfizer and a German biotech firm) are jointly developing a vaccine candidate based on genetic material known as messenger RNA, which carries the instructions for cells to make proteins. By injecting a specially designed messenger RNA into the body, the vaccine could potentially tell cells how to make the spike protein of the coronavirus without actually making a person sick. Because the virus typically uses this protein as a key to unlock and take over lung cells, the vaccine could train a healthy immune system to produce antibodies to fight off an infection. The technology also has the advantage of being faster to produce, and tends to be more stable than traditional vaccines, which use weakened virus strains."

[gerryb323]

Panic Headlining at its finest:
A mutant coronavirus has emerged, even more contagious than the original, study says
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health ... li=BBnb7Kz

WHOA, right??? Then you read the story and discover that this "mutant version" is the version which has been in America the whole time (at least the East Coast spread) and Europe from early on ... the story is written as though "hey, we just learned that scientists months ago discovered this but we're going to write about it like it's a change to what's going on so it scares you and you read it". And it's almost like the story is trying to say between the lines that what we are experiencing is NOT the Wuhan, China version that first started spreading (a little sly political angling to push back against the "China Flu" crowd, perhaps?). Hey, let's call it the "European Flu"!

The mutation identified in the new report affects the now infamous spikes on the exterior of the coronavirus, which allow it to enter human respiratory cells. The report’s authors said they felt an “urgent need for an early warning” so that vaccines and drugs under development around the world will be effective against the mutated strain.

Wherever the new strain appeared, it quickly infected far more people than the earlier strains that came out of Wuhan, China, and within weeks it was the only strain that was prevalent in some nations, according to the report. The new strain’s dominance over its predecessors demonstrates that it is more infectious, according to the report, though exactly why is not yet known.

there was a story on the local news last night that one of the vaccines that's going into clinical trials is not your typical "let's give them an inert copy of the virus so the body builds antibodies" vaccine.. I found references to it on NPR and other sites.. from the NYT: "(Pfizer and a German biotech firm) are jointly developing a vaccine candidate based on genetic material known as messenger RNA, which carries the instructions for cells to make proteins. By injecting a specially designed messenger RNA into the body, the vaccine could potentially tell cells how to make the spike protein of the coronavirus without actually making a person sick. Because the virus typically uses this protein as a key to unlock and take over lung cells, the vaccine could train a healthy immune system to produce antibodies to fight off an infection. The technology also has the advantage of being faster to produce, and tends to be more stable than traditional vaccines, which use weakened virus strains."

There was a NYT Daily podcast on this, I believe

On edit: Here it is

[Rotorooter]

New headline: EVERYONE IS GOING TO DIE!!!!!!
That is part of life. But I made you look!!!

At what point do we stop believing these models? I would have to say that the curve has been flattened, so what will the goal posts be moved to now? There are a lot of people who are ready to make their own decisions again.

[gerryb323]

New headline: EVERYONE IS GOING TO DIE!!!!!!
That is part of life. But I made you look!!!

At what point do we stop believing these models? I would have to say that the curve has been flattened, so what will the goal posts be moved to now? There are a lot of people who are ready to make their own decisions again.

You realize it's flattened because of the social distancing. So if we stop or scale back the distancing, the curve gets less flat.

[Rotorooter]

New headline: EVERYONE IS GOING TO DIE!!!!!!
That is part of life. But I made you look!!!

At what point do we stop believing these models? I would have to say that the curve has been flattened, so what will the goal posts be moved to now? There are a lot of people who are ready to make their own decisions again.

You realize it's flattened because of the social distancing. So if we stop or scale back the distancing, the curve gets less flat.

Outside of large cities currently affected (NYC, Chicago), that is merely a theory. We also have data that could isolate the most vulnerable. Again, at what cost? You want to stay home, where a mask, fine, do that. Personally, I'll take a calculated risk in everything I do. Give me the data, I'll make my own decisions. Let everyone else do what they want.

[PeteRasche]

Outside of large cities currently affected (NYC, Chicago), that is merely a theory. We also have data that could isolate the most vulnerable. Again, at what cost? You want to stay home, where a mask, fine, do that. Personally, I'll take a calculated risk in everything I do. Give me the data, I'll make my own decisions. Let everyone else do what they want.

1. There you go with that "who cares if I spread disease and cause other people to die, I'm all about me" attitude... again. I mean, if you want to argue the economy, argue the economy, but the whole "this doesn't affect me so who cares" thing pretty much makes you a {redacted}.
2. Um, isn't your state the most relaxed right now (and the first to do any relaxing)?

Personally, I'm heading back to work Monday... my office will be fully open and everyone expected to be back in, with guidelines that we all have had to sign a contract to follow. It's going to be very interesting to say the least. The majority of my office is incredibly conservative (like, far-right, "if we elect a Dem president he'll come to take my guns", MAGA/Trump2020 right) and there are studies out (as if you need them, it's pretty obvious) that they are the crowd who have been poo-pooing this entire endeavor. I expect to see very few masks (we are supposed to wear them when we are not sitting at our desks), and to get many invitations to meetings where people crowd around a set of drawings on a conference room table. I also expect to see the same "old man" behavior I saw before this whole thing, where every male over the age of 50 still coughs and sneezes into his hand and then goes right about his business, even if that business is operating the conference room mouse and keyboard. They're supposed to provide hand sanitizer, wipes, etc., but providing them and seeing people use them will be two different things. Thankfully I sit in an area where I'm fairly out of the main flow of people and frankly, I'm in a position where if I don't feel comfortable, I will simply tell management I'm staying home.

[Rotorooter]

Outside of large cities currently affected (NYC, Chicago), that is merely a theory. We also have data that could isolate the most vulnerable. Again, at what cost? You want to stay home, where a mask, fine, do that. Personally, I'll take a calculated risk in everything I do. Give me the data, I'll make my own decisions. Let everyone else do what they want.

1. There you go with that "who cares if I spread disease and cause other people to die, I'm all about me" attitude... again. I mean, if you want to argue the economy, argue the economy, but the whole "this doesn't affect me so who cares" thing pretty much makes you a {redacted}.
2. Um, isn't your state the most relaxed right now (and the first to do any relaxing)?

Personally, I'm heading back to work Monday... my office will be fully open and everyone expected to be back in, with guidelines that we all have had to sign a contract to follow. It's going to be very interesting to say the least. The majority of my office is incredibly conservative (like, far-right, "if we elect a Dem president he'll come to take my guns", MAGA/Trump2020 right) and there are studies out (as if you need them, it's pretty obvious) that they are the crowd who have been poo-pooing this entire endeavor. I expect to see very few masks (we are supposed to wear them when we are not sitting at our desks), and to get many invitations to meetings where people crowd around a set of drawings on a conference room table. I also expect to see the same "old man" behavior I saw before this whole thing, where every male over the age of 50 still coughs and sneezes into his hand and then goes right about his business, even if that business is operating the conference room mouse and keyboard. They're supposed to provide hand sanitizer, wipes, etc., but providing them and seeing people use them will be two different things. Thankfully I sit in an area where I'm fairly out of the main flow of people and frankly, I'm in a position where if I don't feel comfortable, I will simply tell management I'm staying home.

Good for you, you are making your own calculated decisions. Bravo. Many people, with lesser careers, do not have that choice. Take away your paycheck for 12 months and let's see if your tune changes.

It is about more about common sense on my end than any political statement, although that is a derivative. Watching persons wear masks OUTSIDE, when the PPM is so minute, that I just shake my head. Bottom line, if a person cannot breathe outside for fear of getting a virus, then what is the point of going out? Using common sense, if it's 80 degrees outside, with a gentle breeze, and you're not within 5 feet of someone, then why wear a mask? You have no more chance of getting the virus than getting a cold in 80 degree weather (probably less). Talk about creating mass hysteria. But hey, it's everyone's choice, so it's OK with me if they wear it, but I'll take my calculated risk. If you're in a high-risk group, then I applaud you to continue to shelter. Just don't shut everything down to do it. This is coming from a 62 year old who has had double pneumonia.

Georgia has "opened up", but things like restaurants, dental offices, beauty salons and health clubs are still closed. It is far from normal, even here.

BTW, as I'm sure you are aware, as of last week, there were more suicides in the USA since mid-March than from deaths by Covid-19. Death rate/Infected rate of C-19 is less than 1%. Give me a break. We can be careful without being played for fools. Also, I was cautious about transmitting my hygiene long before this, so stick your {redacted} comment where the sun don't shine.

[gerryb323]

Outside of large cities currently affected (NYC, Chicago), that is merely a theory. We also have data that could isolate the most vulnerable. Again, at what cost? You want to stay home, where a mask, fine, do that. Personally, I'll take a calculated risk in everything I do. Give me the data, I'll make my own decisions. Let everyone else do what they want.

1. There you go with that "who cares if I spread disease and cause other people to die, I'm all about me" attitude... again. I mean, if you want to argue the economy, argue the economy, but the whole "this doesn't affect me so who cares" thing pretty much makes you a {redacted}.
2. Um, isn't your state the most relaxed right now (and the first to do any relaxing)?

Personally, I'm heading back to work Monday... my office will be fully open and everyone expected to be back in, with guidelines that we all have had to sign a contract to follow. It's going to be very interesting to say the least. The majority of my office is incredibly conservative (like, far-right, "if we elect a Dem president he'll come to take my guns", MAGA/Trump2020 right) and there are studies out (as if you need them, it's pretty obvious) that they are the crowd who have been poo-pooing this entire endeavor. I expect to see very few masks (we are supposed to wear them when we are not sitting at our desks), and to get many invitations to meetings where people crowd around a set of drawings on a conference room table. I also expect to see the same "old man" behavior I saw before this whole thing, where every male over the age of 50 still coughs and sneezes into his hand and then goes right about his business, even if that business is operating the conference room mouse and keyboard. They're supposed to provide hand sanitizer, wipes, etc., but providing them and seeing people use them will be two different things. Thankfully I sit in an area where I'm fairly out of the main flow of people and frankly, I'm in a position where if I don't feel comfortable, I will simply tell management I'm staying home.

Good for you, you are making your own calculated decisions. Bravo. Many people, with lesser careers, do not have that choice. Take away your paycheck for 12 months and let's see if your tune changes.

It is about more about common sense on my end than any political statement, although that is a derivative. Watching persons wear masks OUTSIDE, when the PPM is so minute, that I just shake my head. Bottom line, if a person cannot breathe outside for fear of getting a virus, then what is the point of going out? Using common sense, if it's 80 degrees outside, with a gentle breeze, and you're not within 5 feet of someone, then why wear a mask? You have no more chance of getting the virus than getting a cold in 80 degree weather (probably less). Talk about creating mass hysteria. But hey, it's everyone's choice, so it's OK with me if they wear it, but I'll take my calculated risk. If you're in a high-risk group, then I applaud you to continue to shelter. Just don't shut everything down to do it. This is coming from a 62 year old who has had double pneumonia.

Georgia has "opened up", but things like restaurants, dental offices, beauty salons and health clubs are still closed. It is far from normal, even here.

BTW, as I'm sure you are aware, as of last week, there were more suicides in the USA since mid-March than from deaths by Covid-19. Death rate/Infected rate of C-19 is less than 1%. Give me a break. We can be careful without being played for fools. Also, I was cautious about transmitting my hygiene long before this, so stick your {redacted} comment where the sun don't shine.

The self-centered-ness of your comments is sometimes staggering.
The mask is less about keeping you from getting it and more to keep you from spreading it. I'm sure you've seen the peeing analogy.

[long green]

We've had over 60,000 suicides the last month and a half? Link?

[gerryb323]

We've had over 60,000 suicides the last month and a half? Link?

Well since there were 48,000 in all of 2018, that would be quite an increase
https://www.cdc.gov/violenceprevention/ ... tfact.html

[ml wave]

New headline: EVERYONE IS GOING TO DIE!!!!!!
That is part of life. But I made you look!!!

At what point do we stop believing these models? I would have to say that the curve has been flattened, so what will the goal posts be moved to now? There are a lot of people who are ready to make their own decisions again.

You realize it's flattened because of the social distancing. So if we stop or scale back the distancing, the curve gets less flat.

And, if you back out NYC, rate of infections in the rest of the country is actually increasing.

[gerryb323]

Outside of large cities currently affected (NYC, Chicago), that is merely a theory. We also have data that could isolate the most vulnerable. Again, at what cost? You want to stay home, where a mask, fine, do that. Personally, I'll take a calculated risk in everything I do. Give me the data, I'll make my own decisions. Let everyone else do what they want.

1. There you go with that "who cares if I spread disease and cause other people to die, I'm all about me" attitude... again. I mean, if you want to argue the economy, argue the economy, but the whole "this doesn't affect me so who cares" thing pretty much makes you a {redacted}.
2. Um, isn't your state the most relaxed right now (and the first to do any relaxing)?

Personally, I'm heading back to work Monday... my office will be fully open and everyone expected to be back in, with guidelines that we all have had to sign a contract to follow. It's going to be very interesting to say the least. The majority of my office is incredibly conservative (like, far-right, "if we elect a Dem president he'll come to take my guns", MAGA/Trump2020 right) and there are studies out (as if you need them, it's pretty obvious) that they are the crowd who have been poo-pooing this entire endeavor. I expect to see very few masks (we are supposed to wear them when we are not sitting at our desks), and to get many invitations to meetings where people crowd around a set of drawings on a conference room table. I also expect to see the same "old man" behavior I saw before this whole thing, where every male over the age of 50 still coughs and sneezes into his hand and then goes right about his business, even if that business is operating the conference room mouse and keyboard. They're supposed to provide hand sanitizer, wipes, etc., but providing them and seeing people use them will be two different things. Thankfully I sit in an area where I'm fairly out of the main flow of people and frankly, I'm in a position where if I don't feel comfortable, I will simply tell management I'm staying home.

Good for you, you are making your own calculated decisions. Bravo. Many people, with lesser careers, do not have that choice. Take away your paycheck for 12 months and let's see if your tune changes.

It is about more about common sense on my end than any political statement, although that is a derivative. Watching persons wear masks OUTSIDE, when the PPM is so minute, that I just shake my head. Bottom line, if a person cannot breathe outside for fear of getting a virus, then what is the point of going out? Using common sense, if it's 80 degrees outside, with a gentle breeze, and you're not within 5 feet of someone, then why wear a mask? You have no more chance of getting the virus than getting a cold in 80 degree weather (probably less). Talk about creating mass hysteria. But hey, it's everyone's choice, so it's OK with me if they wear it, but I'll take my calculated risk. If you're in a high-risk group, then I applaud you to continue to shelter. Just don't shut everything down to do it. This is coming from a 62 year old who has had double pneumonia.

Georgia has "opened up", but things like restaurants, dental offices, beauty salons and health clubs are still closed. It is far from normal, even here.

BTW, as I'm sure you are aware, as of last week, there were more suicides in the USA since mid-March than from deaths by Covid-19. Death rate/Infected rate of C-19 is less than 1%. Give me a break. We can be careful without being played for fools. Also, I was cautious about transmitting my hygiene long before this, so stick your {redacted} comment where the sun don't shine.

The self-centered-ness of your comments is sometimes staggering.
The mask is less about keeping you from getting it and more to keep you from spreading it. I'm sure you've seen the peeing analogy.

[TUPF]

Didn’t we see Roto on cable news marching with a long gun recently?

[ml wave]

Didn’t we see Roto on cable news marching with a long gun recently?

Well, it's not like you can shoot the virus with some sort of pistol so there you go.

[Rotorooter]

Infection rates down in Alaska 23%; Georgia 13%; Oklahoma 1%; South Carolina 7%. Where are those headlines?

If you are walking outside in 75 degree weather, with a gentle breeze, 5 feet from anyone, without a mask, do you really think you will be transmitting this virus? C'mon, use your common sense. That chance is so remote that it is not worth discussing.

A solution does not have to be ON/OFF. When I went for a haircut, the barber would work on appointment only; wipe the chair down with a sanitizer after each client; no more than 10 people in the shop at any given time; took your temperature before you walked in; each barber wore a mask. Reasonable people will find ways to deal with the virus if you give them the chance.

The increased suicide RATE is what is greater. The importance of missing a word, sorry.

As usual, ml wave chimes in with only snark and adds no real value to the conversation. Congrats, you're consistent if nothing else.

Ok, what is the endgame? Assume no vaccine for 12 months and remdesivir won't be available until after clinical trials i.e. 3-6 months. No moving the goalposts, either. What is the endgame?

[ml wave]

Infection rates down in Alaska 23%; Georgia 13%; Oklahoma 1%; South Carolina 7%. Where are those headlines?

If you are walking outside in 75 degree weather, with a gentle breeze, 5 feet from anyone, without a mask, do you really think you will be transmitting this virus? C'mon, use your common sense. That chance is so remote that it is not worth discussing.

A solution does not have to be ON/OFF. When I went for a haircut, the barber would work on appointment only; wipe the chair down with a sanitizer after each client; no more than 10 people in the shop at any given time; took your temperature before you walked in; each barber wore a mask. Reasonable people will find ways to deal with the virus if you give them the chance.

The increased suicide RATE is what is greater. The importance of missing a word, sorry.

As usual, ml wave chimes in with only snark and adds no real value to the conversation. Congrats, you're consistent if nothing else.

Ok, what is the endgame? Assume no vaccine for 12 months and remdesivir won't be available until after clinical trials i.e. 3-6 months. No moving the goalposts, either. What is the endgame?

Sorry for the confusion. I wasn't trying to add value to the conversation, I was making fun of people taking guns to protest rallies.

If you want to add value to the conversation, you might want to include some sort of link or statistic to your suicide claims since every article I pull up says that 2018 is the last year with data on the suicide rate. Not incidentally, the rate in 2018 was 14.8 per 100,000 which seems slightly lower than the threat from COVID considering ~65,000 deaths from ~1.1MM infected. In fact, if you forget the infected and just take the 65k deaths across the entire population of ~350MM that still gives you 18.5 per 100,000...and counting, with the white house projecting an increase as states open up. There are legitimate arguments to be made about opening up the economy, but, unless you have some other information, an increase in suicide rate isn't one of them.

[TUPF]

Today, 9 May 2020, US COVID deaths surpassed 80,000 as reported in the OP website: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

The first US death occurred on 21 January 2020 in Snohomish, Washington 109 days ago.

To put this in perspective, approximately 102,000 Americans have died in all wars and conflicts combined since WW2: Korea, Vietnam, Gulf Wars, etc.

[CT Wave]

To put this in perspective according to the CDC from 2017, number of deaths for leading causes of death in the USA:

Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and Pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173