Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

Post by TUPF »

Thanks for that, CT.

I think the difference is the “normal” causes of death categories are not caused by outside pathogens with the exception of influenza. Most of those categories, some self induced or self inflicted, some not, are just what one might call part of the human condition. As my father in law used to say, the warranty eventually runs out or you Darwin Award out.

A few days ago I was listening to a COVID related program on public radio which said that since many different states, or countries for that matter, are using different metrics for what constitutes a COVID-19 death which makes meaningful comparisons difficult. Most likely there are more COVID deaths that were never “in the system” because we sure as hell aren’t testing enough to know and COVID deaths aren’t all in the ER. So the gist of the discussion is that US states and countries should compare where possible “excess deaths” above and beyond the baseline numbers kept by the CDC or similar agencies. As I learned with my sister’s death last year there is no hard and fast rule for what cause of death goes on a death certificate and is not nearly as cut and dried as I once thought. Right now if someone dies of an underlying condition exacerbated by COVID it’s a tossup what goes on the death certificate

I too saw the 2017 CDC stats which were the newest I could find. It would be easy to take a rolling average of US deaths where available for 3 years or so to look for “excess deaths” now. When this all started and my Aussie friend and I discussed it in January I bought into the “it’s no worse than ‘normal’ flu” deaths but I quickly changed because those ‘normal’ flu, heart attack, cancer, etc., etc. deaths continue unabated. If anything we now hear that the ‘normal’ death numbers could also be higher than usual because people are afraid to see a doctor or go to the ER for chronic problems for fear of COVID.

So, add the 80,000+ COVID deaths at a minimum, to the CDC categories. That’s why I think comparison to war deaths is more appropriate. We mobilized as a nation after 9/11 versus an external threat and the deaths from COVID are 25x.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Agree with many of your points here. The definition of "Covid death" is fluid and inconsistent. Not sure there is clarity between dying of Covid and dying with Covid. And you are correct that a meaningful assessment would be excess deaths. Agree with a three year moving average, perhaps adjusted for population changes, to understand the impact of this pandemic. You also raise an interesting point about deaths from other than Covid. I agree that our reactions to minimize Covid deaths will likely lead to increases in death from other causes -- say because someone's chemotherapy is interrupted or they fail to go to the hospital after a heart attack. Or maybe our classification of deaths as Covid will results in the final tally from other causes to be reduced in 2020. Time will tell, and I have no prediction.

As far as a comparison to deaths from natural causes or deaths from war, observers here can make their own judgment as to perspective. I am not making an argument either way.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Good article in more detail about “excess deaths”.

https://apple.news/AeNxkC31nTvuv6nR1EfivZQ
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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There hasn't been an increase in a disease with a 2 week latency period after one week? Shocking. Especially in states wanting to downplay it?!
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Of course there will be an increase in disease as we relax the lockdown. Recall the purpose was to flatten the curve. That has been accomplished and our health systems are not inundated. But there will be more cases and sadly more deaths.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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I realize that this is petty, but it really bugs me. The Advocate in their daily update of COVID19 statistics has a color coded map of Louisiana. Each parish is color coded according to how many cases have been reported. Orleans and Jefferson, of course, are in the highest category, bright red. (Jefferson has surpassed Orleans in the number of reported cases, btw.) East Baton Rouge is in the next category, pink. EVERY time that East Baton Rouge passes the threshold to join Orleans and Jefferson in the bright red category, the metrics of the map are changed so that it does not. Maybe it's just because I don't like Baton Rouge, but that just galls me.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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CT Wave wrote:Of course there will be an increase in disease as we relax the lockdown. Recall the purpose was to flatten the curve. That has been accomplished and our health systems are not inundated. But there will be more cases and sadly more deaths.
Maryland, where I am retired, is relaxing some restrictions tomorrow, May 15. Personally I don’t see my wife, adult daughter and son-in-law changing how we have been living for the last two months. I’ll still quarantine packages and mail and mask/glove up anytime I am in a public space. We’ll have socially distanced BYOB happy hours in the driveway with neighbors. We have the luxury of being retired and daughter/SIL’s musician contracts have all been canceled at least through July so they will stay with us in the more rural MD Eastern Shore and not downtown Philly for the foreseeable future. They are well known musicians and have been able to cobble some paying gigs together online but mostly have been keeping sharp doing daily free releases to the world for 59 days and counting. (On Facebook, Instagram or YouTube, search #uripostejukebox).

On a good day I have an overactive immune system and don’t want to give COVID-19 a chance to take me out. To the rest of you who need to mix with the public and cannot work from home, stay well, don’t confuse freedom with a spin on the coronavirus roulette wheel, and if you, your family, or friends contract COVID-19 may it be brief and mild.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TU77CAL82 wrote:I realize that this is petty, but it really bugs me. The Advocate in their daily update of COVID19 statistics has a color coded map of Louisiana. Each parish is color coded according to how many cases have been reported. Orleans and Jefferson, of course, are in the highest category, bright red. (Jefferson has surpassed Orleans in the number of reported cases, btw.) East Baton Rouge is in the next category, pink. EVERY time that East Baton Rouge passes the threshold to join Orleans and Jefferson in the bright red category, the metrics of the map are changed so that it does not. Maybe it's just because I don't like Baton Rouge, but that just galls me.
I noticed that today. I thought it amusing.

I also like that the ventilator charts are so off from each other. The statewide chart says there’s 140 people on vents. The chart below that says 145 people are on vents in region 1 alone.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Completely not taking any side here, but I had a thought... as I posted on Facebook... So all the people who have been fighting for two months online over their personal beliefs about this virus are now going to be thrown out into the public to try to act out their beliefs simultaneously and immediately adjacent to each other? Yeah, this oughta go well. :shock:

I was out yesterday and saw all sorts of people ignoring rules. Roadwork construction workers in groups larger than 10, not a single mask to be seen, multiple of them side-by-side or face-to-face. People walking on narrow sidewalks. Large family groups (much larger than could be in a single family household) at a cemetery all socializing around a tombstone. Etc., etc.

Some people are wearing masks, and some are acting like nothing ever happened, and there are angry and offended people on both sides. Two months of pent-up anger only expressed online and now they're thrown into public together to fight it out. In the past two months people have been shot for denying entry to a completely closed restaurant; what happens when a single person is denied entry because they were scanned at the door and have a slight fever? What if said person feels like they are being discriminated against, that the thermometer isn't calibrated right, that they "took their own temp at home and are SURE they aren't sick, so LET ME IN or I scream {something}-ism on social media"?

The next few months are going to be ugly. Period. Yay, America!
(though this isn't just an American issue, I'm sure).
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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What you say is heartfelt, Pete.

As a former submariner having conducted operations in places we have never been for almost 100 days in sphincter puckering circumstances, it’s all I can do to keep a straight face when people whine about their isolation.

I wouldn’t get worked up about the actions of others unless in puts you or your loved ones in imminent danger. At 6’ 10” I bet you can someone’s attention pretty quickly.
Last edited by TUPF on Fri May 15, 2020 3:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF wrote:
CT Wave wrote:Of course there will be an increase in disease as we relax the lockdown. Recall the purpose was to flatten the curve. That has been accomplished and our health systems are not inundated. But there will be more cases and sadly more deaths.
Maryland, where I am retired, is relaxing some restrictions tomorrow, May 15. Personally I don’t see my wife, adult daughter and son-in-law changing how we have been living for the last two months. I’ll still quarantine packages and mail and mask/glove up anytime I am in a public space. We’ll have socially distanced BYOB happy hours in the driveway with neighbors. We have the luxury of being retired and daughter/SIL’s musician contracts have all been canceled at least through July so they will stay with us in the more rural MD Eastern Shore and not downtown Philly for the foreseeable future. They are well known musicians and have been able to cobble some paying gigs together online but mostly have been keeping sharp doing daily free releases to the world for 59 days and counting. (On Facebook, Instagram or YouTube, search #uripostejukebox).

On a good day I have an overactive immune system and don’t want to give COVID-19 a chance to take me out. To the rest of you who need to mix with the public and cannot work from home, stay well, don’t confuse freedom with a spin on the coronavirus roulette wheel, and if you, your family, or friends contract COVID-19 may it be brief and mild.
My circumstances are very similar to yours, TUPF. We live in a beautiful community, my income has not been affected, our children still have their jobs, etc. My wife and I are able to walk around the neighborhood, go to the beach, and still play golf. So what has changed for us? Less social interaction, no eating our (just curbside pickup), little shopping. It is easy to see how blessed we are.

But now there are 36,000,000 newly unemployed Americans. What are their experiences? How many others are suffering even with jobs? I agree with your recommendations above.
Last edited by CT Wave on Sun May 17, 2020 6:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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CT Wave wrote:
TUPF wrote:
CT Wave wrote:Of course there will be an increase in disease as we relax the lockdown. Recall the purpose was to flatten the curve. That has been accomplished and our health systems are not inundated. But there will be more cases and sadly more deaths.
Maryland, where I am retired, is relaxing some restrictions tomorrow, May 15. Personally I don’t see my wife, adult daughter and son-in-law changing how we have been living for the last two months. I’ll still quarantine packages and mail and mask/glove up anytime I am in a public space. We’ll have socially distanced BYOB happy hours in the driveway with neighbors. We have the luxury of being retired and daughter/SIL’s musician contracts have all been canceled at least through July so they will stay with us in the more rural MD Eastern Shore and not downtown Philly for the foreseeable future. They are well known musicians and have been able to cobble some paying gigs together online but mostly have been keeping sharp doing daily free releases to the world for 59 days and counting. (On Facebook, Instagram or YouTube, search #uripostejukebox).

On a good day I have an overactive immune system and don’t want to give COVID-19 a chance to take me out. To the rest of you who need to mix with the public and cannot work from home, stay well, don’t confuse freedom with a spin on the coronavirus roulette wheel, and if you, your family, or friends contract COVID-19 may it be brief and mild.

But now there are 36,000,000 newly unemployed Americans. What are there experiences? .
Making more than they were before?
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Some good news in a slightly humorous post by Dr. Jennifer Kasten. I left off her footnote references which are the numbers in parentheses (you can look them up on her original Facebook post if interested but they are all medical studies and papers and such).
Highlights (IMO 8) ) bolded by me.
You're a contestant on a popular new game show: Let's Catch COVID-19! (Ratings have been off the charts for the last 5 months). What's your best evidence-based strategy to win (including updated guidelines)?

1) Pick up a box of noodles- noodles which all the COVID patients in town can't help but lay hands on- at the Kwik-E-Mart?
2) Hunt alligators in the sewers of New York?
3) Listen for 1 minute, unmasked, as a COVID patient tells you all about those 5G towers?
4) Walk through a fresh dewy COVID sneeze cloud, unmasked?

Let's spin the wheel! Charlie, what do they get if they win? A fabulous holiday in the ICU? Or maybe, a jet ski?

DOOR NUMBER 1: TOUCH INERT OBJECTS IN THE ENVIRONMENT- OOH, SORRY, THANKS FOR PLAYING
The chance of contracting COVID-19 from an inert object (also called a 'fomite') is exceptionally low- not quite zero, but very close. Remember, this is a respiratory virus. It can't burrow in through your skin, or melt away your hair, and it can't live in your acidic stomach. And COVID patients don't secrete virus through their skin, like slugs leaving a trail of ooze. Whatever they touch doesn't matter much.

Virologists in Germany (1) did some experiments where they attempted to recover actual live infectious virus from inanimate objects, and concluded that a) the time interval needs to be less than 30 minutes between infected person sneezing on an object and susceptible person touching it; b) the susceptible person would immediately need to take a big, deep, admiring sniff of the object; c) even then, you need about ~1000 intact viruses [the infectious dose] to be inhaled all at the same time to establish an infection and you probably won't be anywhere close.
As for eating: once bathed in gastric acid, the virus falls apart and loses all infectivity within 10 minutes. (2) Acid baths are never a good idea, but especially if you're a coronavirus. And if you're a literate coronavirus reading this, wow, that's rather impressive.

The CDC was appropriately cautious until the evidence was fully in, but now it's in. New guidelines reflect the fact that transmission from the environment is highly unlikely (3). No need to quarantine your groceries or bleach your mail. You should still wash your hands, though, because that's just nasty.

DOOR NUMBER 2: FECAL TRANSMISSION- NO. YOU'RE JUST KIND OF GUESSING, AREN'T YOU?
Let's say you want to go after Old Sparky, the blind albino alligator lurking in the fetid sewers of NYC. He'd make a splendid and fragrant trophy for your living room wall. We know viral RNA-- just the RNA, mind you-- has been recovered in large amounts from the feces of COVID patients. Some people have even proposed sampling sewage to track the prevalence of infections.

Same song, second verse: viral RNA is NOT infectious virus. The same paper (2) which looked at the gastric acid also looked at the colon. While the virus CAN infect the cells lining the intestine, it's a dead end. The enzymes in the fluid of the intestine inactivate the virus after 5 hours.
As for poop- they had 10 COVID patients. Only 3 had any RNA (though they did have large amounts). Not a single intact virus was seen. Another high-quality study found the same (4). Montezuma might have had his revenge, but it ain't COVID-19. Feel free to change diapers, shovel out septic tanks, etc., unafraid.

DOOR NUMBER 3: SPEAKING FOR 1 MINUTE UNMASKED- NO. CHARLIE, CAN WE GET SOME BETTER CONTESTANTS NEXT TIME? THIS IS GETTING PATHETIC.
Speaking doesn't generate terribly many droplets, but it does generate plenty of smaller particles- the famous aerosols. And aerosol-sized particles CAN and DO contain virus at the moment they're generated. The question is: how long can they last, and how many are there?
The problem with earlier aerosol experiments is that they were extremely artificial. Humans aren't spray nozzles and they aren't particle generators under high pressure. So, a new paper (5) did something really wild: researchers simply asked actual humans to talk. They found 1 minute of speaking generates about 1000 particles which are capable of carrying viruses (on average- some very wet people made many more). Remember, you need about 1000 viruses to enter you all at the same time to establish an infection.

Guess what the odds of a single individual particle containing an intact infectious virus was? 0.37%. So... 3-4 particles containing virus are generated, on average, per minute.

Do you have someone in your life whose motto is "why speak when you can bellow and deafen those around you?" Stay away from that person unmasked, because louder talking generates more particles (6). The risk from normal conversation remains low-- not zero, but low. But we could probably jerry-rig conditions to make it happen. Say, a 2-hour long choir practice with susceptible unmasked people packed in closely together, singing (causes higher pressures in the chest and throat and generates many more aerosols) for 120+ minutes.

DOOR NUMBER 4: RESPIRATORY DROPLETS, UNMASKED- YES! BING BING BING! ENJOY THAT SEA-DOO!
Now you're cooking with gas! The virus spreads via droplets. Wearing a mask significantly reduces transmission. Staying at least 6 feet apart significantly reduces transmission. Homemade cloth masks filter out particles pretty well, even aerosols (7).

I'd love a spin on the jet ski, thanks for offering.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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Hey, remember back early in this thread (ah, those were the days!) when certain posters just wanted to take their HCQ+Z-Pack and continue on with their lives?
From my favorite non-political, actually-a-doc-who-specializes-in-this-stuff person, Dr. Jennifer Kasten:
Done and dusted: hydroxychloroquine definitively does not prevent death in COVID-19, and- especially when combined with a Z-pack- leads to a HIGHER rate of death / serious complications.

A CRAZY IDEA... WHICH MIGHT JUST WORK
So how did we get here? I don't mean, tell me your parents' love story- though I'm sure it's fascinating. Why chloroquine (CQ) / Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ)? They're a triple threat: they kill malaria parasites, control inflammation, and in a Petri dish they block the receptors the virus uses to get inside cells (1, 2). Think of it like COVID Hodor. The Hodor Effect is even stronger when combined with an antibiotic, azithromycin (AKA a Z-pack)-- though those two drugs mixed together can cause the electrical system of the heart to go on the fritz.

Both CQ and HCQ have been trialed in other viral illnesses with a similar degree of starry-eyed optimism, which never really panned out (3). It went to bat, and struck out, in influenza (4), HIV (5), Ebola (6) and others.

But hey, worth a shot. After an initial (highly criticized) 20-patient study in France (7) and China (8) seemed to show a benefit in sick patients, we were off to the races.

EARLY DATA: JUST ANECDOTES
As the first wave of infections grew and grew, there was no way rigorously study HCQ in COVID. If there was even a spark of hope, a plausible mechanism, and early evidence that maybe it worked, many hospitals decided that it was simply not ethical to only give the drug to half the patients.
So basically, the first data anyone got their hands on was water cooler gossip. Except instead of dishing about Maureen's low-cut sweater, the HOT GOSS was "hey guys, I gave this drug to like everyone, and yet a bunch of people still died. What gives?"
Once it was apparent that HCQ was not the second reincarnation of the Philosopher's Stone, ethically it was cool to begin studying it more systematically.

CONFOUNDERS, OR: WHY IS THE RUM GONE?
Say you noticed 10 drunken sailors survived drowning, while 10 sober sailors didn't. You conclude- alcohol saves lives! And also, why is all the rum gone?!
Except, the drunk sailors had a lifeboat and the sober sailors were thrown overboard in shark-infested seas. The boat's the life-saver here, not the blood alcohol content. That's called a 'confounder.' A variable which is probably a lot more relevant to the true story than the one you were measuring.
For COVID and HCQ, the immediate question of course is- what if the HCQ people were DIFFERENT from the no-drugs people? What if they were older, sicker, more likely to smoke, etc? Any study worth its salt will control for these confounders.

STUDY 1: US VETERANS AFFAIRS HOSPITALS: TWICE AS MANY DEATHS IN THE HCQ GROUP VERSUS THE NO-DRUGS GROUP
Time for the evidence to Level Up. Researchers in the VA system looked at 368 patients who received either HCQ, HCQ + Z-pack, or nothing (9). They developed a nifty score based on all the veterans' diagnoses and demographic factors to control for confounders.
The results were grim. Rates of death in the HCQ, HCQ + Z-pack, and no-drugs groups were 27.8%, 22.1%, 11.4%, respectively. The rate of needing a ventilator was no better, and no worse, with HCQ.

STUDY 2: BRAZIL: HIGH-DOSE CQ KILLS
A national team in Brazil (10) took 81 patients and gave half high-dose CQ and half low-dose, all with a Z-pack. 17% of high-dose patients died, versus 13.5% of low-dose. And 13.5% wasn't any different than the fatality rate in Brazilian patients who weren't getting any drugs at all. 25% of the high-dose patients' hearts went on the fritz.
The study was stopped as the high dose was deemed to be unethically dangerous. In short, the results were... unREAL. (<-- top Brazilian ForEx pun)

STUDY 3: NYC: HCQ IS ABOUT AS EFFECTIVE AS ARGUING IN THE COMMENTS SECTION
This one, performed at Columbia and published in the NEJM, was purely observational. And the HCQ patients WERE sicker when they were admitted to the hospital. But for the first 1346 COVID patients who lived at least 24 hours, the drugs showed no benefit at all, in terms of death or mechanical ventilation (11). The raw numbers looked bad for the HCQ group- 32% chance of dying or being intubated, versus 15% in the no-drug group- but it wasn't statistically significant. By the end of the follow-up period, both drugs stopped being recommended therapy at Columbia.

STUDY 4: THE BIG DADDY: 96,000 PATIENTS, 6 CONTINENTS, AND MORE DEATHS IN THE CQ/HCQ GROUPS
Righty-ho. Go big or go home. The world rolled up its sleeves and looked at all of the data from 671 hospitals on all six populated continents (angry penguins are writing a sternly worded letter to the editor about being excluded). Some places had given CQ, some HCQ, some combined it with a Z-pack and some didn't. About 15,000 received one of the drugs, and 81,000 didn't (12).
They controlled for all the confounders. And the results were grim.
Deaths:
- No drugs: 9.3%
- HCQ alone 18.0%
- HCQ + Z-pack: 23.8%
- CQ alone: 16.4%
- CQ + Z-pack: 22.2%

Heart on the fritz:
- No drugs: 0.3%
- HCQ alone: 6.1%
- HCQ + Z-pack: 8.1%
- CQ alone: 4.3%
- CQ + Z-pack: 6.5%

THE WORLD COMES TO A SCREECHING HALT
This went over like a lead balloon. WHO has stopped administering HCQ in its biggest clinical trial (13). France's response is stronger- they stopped permitting it to be used at all (14). China stopped recommending it after an actual randomized controlled trial showed no improvements, and increased hearts-on-the-fritz (15), including for mildly ill COVID patients (16). Italy, Belgium and the United Kingdom have stopped trials and stopped recommending / permitting the drug (17).

FORGET SICK PEOPLE, WHAT ABOUT PREVENTION?
Since the whole idea is Covid Hodor, shouldn't we use it for prevention? Well, the hearts-on-the-fritz thing makes it dicey to use for outpatients who aren't being closely monitored. But since over a million people take HCQ daily for lupus or arthritis, perhaps we could look at them? If they don't contract COVID, hooray.
Small bits of data are not encouraging. They range from anecdotes (18), to looking at lupus patients who contracted COVID (3/8 were already on HCQ- 19), to registry data showing autoimmune patients on maintenance HCQ indeed are catching COVID.

You had a good inning, HCQ.

SOURCES
1) Wang M , Cao R , Zhang L , et al. Remdesivir and chloroquine effectively inhibit the recently emerged novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) in vitro. Cell Res 2020;30:269–71 http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32020029
2) Fantini J , Scala CD , Chahinian H , et al . Structural and molecular modeling studies reveal a new mechanism of action of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine against SARS-CoV-2 infection. Int J Antimicrob Agents 2020;105960. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105960
3) Savarino A . Use of chloroquine in viral diseases. Lancet Infect Dis 2011;11:653–4.doi:10.1016/S1473-3099(11)70092-5 pmid:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21550312
4) Paton NI, Lee L, Xu Y. Chloroquine for influenza prevention: a randomised, double-blind, placebo controlled trial. Lancet Infect Dis. 2011
5) Sperber K, Chiang G, Chen H. Comparison of hydroxychloroquine with zidovudine in asymptomatic patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus type 1. Clin Ther. 1997;19:913–923.
6) Madrid P.B., Panchal R.G., Warren T.K., Shurtleff A.C., Endsley A.N., Green C.E., Kolokoltsov A., Davey R., Manger I.D., Gilfillan L., et al. Evaluation of Ebola Virus Inhibitors for Drug Repurposing. ACS Infect. Dis. 2015;1:317–326.
7) Gautret P, Lagier JC, Parola P, et al. Hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin as a treatment of COVID-19: results of an open-label non-randomized clinical trial [published online ahead of print, 2020 Mar 20]. Int J Antimicrob Agents. 2020;105949. doi:10.1016/j.ijantimicag.2020.105949
8) Multicenter collaboration group of Department of Science and Technology of Guangdong Province and Health Commission of Guangdong Province for chloroquine in the treatment of novel coronavirus pneumonia. Zhonghua Jie He He Hu Xi Za Zhi. 2020;43(0):E019. doi:10.3760/cma.j.issn.1001-0939.2020.0019
9) Magagnoli, Joseph et al. Outcomes of Hydroxychloroquine Usage in United States Veterans Hospitalized with Covid-19. MedRxiv, April 23, 2020, 2020.04.16.20065920. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920.
10) Chloroquine diphosphate in two different dosages as adjunctive therapy of hospitalized patients with severe respiratory syndrome in the context of coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) infection: Preliminary safety results of a randomized, double-blinded, phase IIb clinical trial (CloroCovid-19 Study). https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf
11) Geleris J, Sun Y, Platt J, et al. Observational Study of Hydroxychloroquine in Hospitalized Patients with Covid-19 [published online ahead of print, 2020 May 7]. N Engl J Med. 2020;NEJMoa2012410. doi:10.1056/NEJMoa2012410
12) Mehra MR, Desai, SS,Frank Ruschitzka F, Patel AN. Hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine with or without a macrolide for treatment of COVID-19: a multinational registry analysis. The Lancet: May 22, 2020 https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)31180-6
13) https://www.npr.org/sections/coronaviru ... y-concerns
14) https://www.france24.com/en/20200527-fr ... t-covid-19
15) Xie Q et al. Hydroxychloroquine in patients with mainly mild to moderate coronavirus disease 2019: open label, randomised controlled trial. BMJ, 2020; m1849 DOI: 10.1136/bmj.m1849
16) Hydroxychloroquine in patients mainly with mild to moderate COVID-19: an open-label, randomized, controlled trial. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 20060558v2
17) https://www.reuters.com/article/us-heal ... SKBN233197
18) https://detroit.cbslocal.com/2020/05/20 ... -covid-19/
19) Monti S , Balduzzi S , Delvino P , et al . Clinical course of COVID-19 in a series of patients with chronic arthritis treated with immunosuppressive targeted therapies. Ann Rheum Dis 2020;79:667–8.doi:10.1136/annrheumdis-2020-217424 pmid:http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32241793
ml wave
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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The lesson here, as always, is people are idiots.
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TU77CAL82
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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ml wave wrote: Fri May 29, 2020 12:37 pm The lesson here, as always, is people are idiots.

. . . and weak.
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OGSB
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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And yet, people are who we put in charge.
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PeteRasche
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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FWIW, a follow-up to the debate in the early pages about HVAC spreading the virus, quoting one of the same guys as before, who has now changed his tune and pretty much agrees it's unlikely:
https://www.achrnews.com/articles/14325 ... d-19-virus

We follow this topic daily because it's our careers (and any legit recommendations we can make to clients means lots of potential jobs for us). I'm fairly confident to tell y'all that your air conditioner (or your favorite restaurant's) is not going to spread COVID-19 around. It's the unmasked guy next to you breathing on you or sneezing near you that should worry you.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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PeteRasche wrote: Mon Jun 01, 2020 10:02 pmIt's the unmasked guy next to you breathing on you or sneezing near you that should worry you.
We have a great friend who we love dearly but we have kept contact with him at a distance because he is one of those “loud talker” sort of guys who the more he gets excited, the more he bellows and aspirates. No mask either.
After you've been on fire under Arctic pack ice everything else is a walk in the park.
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PeteRasche
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF wrote: Tue Jun 02, 2020 7:41 amWe have a great friend who we love dearly but we have kept contact with him at a distance because he is one of those “loud talker” sort of guys who the more he gets excited, the more he bellows and aspirates. No mask either.
See the post above from 5/22 where I shared Dr. Kasten's thoughts on that exact thing. Good idea to keep a distance! I had a former co-worker who was and is a famously very loud talker. Glad he's not here anymore. :lol:
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TU77CAL82 wrote: Thu May 14, 2020 1:11 pm I realize that this is petty, but it really bugs me. The Advocate in their daily update of COVID19 statistics has a color coded map of Louisiana. Each parish is color coded according to how many cases have been reported. Orleans and Jefferson, of course, are in the highest category, bright red. (Jefferson has surpassed Orleans in the number of reported cases, btw.) East Baton Rouge is in the next category, pink. EVERY time that East Baton Rouge passes the threshold to join Orleans and Jefferson in the bright red category, the metrics of the map are changed so that it does not. Maybe it's just because I don't like Baton Rouge, but that just galls me.
This happened again yesterday. Thanks for bringing this to my attention, as I am now irrationally bothered by the entire charade. Almost to the point of writing in about it.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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NPR: Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought
Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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OGSB wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:21 pm NPR: Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought
Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.
Good news, as long as you aren’t one of the 117,000 dead.
After you've been on fire under Arctic pack ice everything else is a walk in the park.
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Re: Near real time COVID-19 statistics

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TUPF wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:44 pm
OGSB wrote: Sat Jun 13, 2020 8:21 pm NPR: Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought
Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.
Good news, as long as you aren’t one of the 117,000 dead.
And some don't care a bit if they caused any of the 117,000 deaths either. Ya know, as long as they're okay and it didn't inconvenience them.
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