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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:01 am 
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These articles are kind of wonky and, yes, behind a paywall. However they include useful practical and legal analyses of what might happen in a few years when new contract deals are done.

In short, there is anti-trust legal risk regardless of what's done but less than one on the outside might think or hope for. Tulane will need real good lawyers to win. (My view: Sign the largest contingent litigation firms that want a big piece of potential damages to grind your ax.)

What is interesting is the real political risk of creating a Super League. So many teams could be left out (like say UNC and Virginia and the rest) that it could turn into a legislative brawl. One the haves may not win.

Author even throws in bon mot explaining why NFL is legally prohibited from playing on Fridays and Saturdays until after college and HS seasons are over. (It did it to obtain anti-trust protection for its collective TV contracts in early 1960's.)


https://theathletic.com/1191540/2019/09 ... scenarios/

https://theathletic.com/1090554/2019/07 ... alignment/


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:21 am 
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Coincidentally this is happening this week. As an analogy, it ain't that easy to form a Super League be it in European soccer or American college football. In the soccer case, those to be "left behind" in 2024 successfully revolted and stopped it.

If the have-nots act in a concerted fashion, they have more power than those lounging in the easy chairs think or expect.


https://www.foxsports.com/soccer/story/ ... ubs-090919


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 11:32 am 
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Since it's behind a paywall, can you at least sort of describe the scenario? Is this a "4 leagues of 16 teams" thing like we've heard? Or do they not even get that detailed? Just curious about how many teams they think would be "in". Because that would greatly affect the power, determination, and just plain anger of those on the "out" side. As mentioned, a few big-name powerful state schools being excluded would make the argument much louder (and likely more legally supported) than if the next realignment took, say, 80 teams into the "power/big money" conferences.

I'm also not totally convinced that by the time of TV contract renewals, there will still be the financial justification for the ridiculous payouts. It seems like national interest in sports in general is waning. I don't know, but even if that is true, it may be counteracted by a possible bidding war amongst more bidders the next time around (Facebook TV, Youtube TV, etc., etc.).


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:19 pm 
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PeteRasche wrote:
Since it's behind a paywall, can you at least sort of describe the scenario? Is this a "4 leagues of 16 teams" thing like we've heard? Or do they not even get that detailed? Just curious about how many teams they think would be "in". Because that would greatly affect the power, determination, and just plain anger of those on the "out" side. As mentioned, a few big-name powerful state schools being excluded would make the argument much louder (and likely more legally supported) than if the next realignment took, say, 80 teams into the "power/big money" conferences.

I'm also not totally convinced that by the time of TV contract renewals, there will still be the financial justification for the ridiculous payouts. It seems like national interest in sports in general is waning. I don't know, but even if that is true, it may be counteracted by a possible bidding war among more bidders the next time around (Facebook TV, Youtube TV, etc., etc.).


I read the same conference realignment article yesterday Pete, so I'll give it a shot. Scenarios described in order from least to most radical:

1. Scheduling Alliances - Conferences choose a partner and set up at least one non-con game a season a la the ACC-Big Ten Challenge in basketball. Big Ten-Pac 12 announced one of these earlier in the year but it ended up falling through.

2. Expansion - Basically what we've seen before, but focused on Pac-12 and Big 12 only. Speculation that Big 12 might want to act first lest it be raided by Pac 12, which the Pac 12 tried back in 2010.

3. Return to Independence - Why should schools like USC, Oklahoma, and Texas carry the water for lesser conference mates? They would have the fan base to pull it off if they could get decent schedules.

4. Power 5 Coalition - All P5 conference negotiate TV rights collectively. Could also lead to the end of FCS opponents/reduction in P5-G5 match ups

5. P5 Separation - The historic blue bloods/those with resources/the current powerhouses breakoff and form a super conference. The scenario spelled out is four divisions with seven teams each. These guys would only play each other.

Honestly, there's a lot more meat and thought put into it, but you get the gist. I've been impressed with the writers on the Athletic so far. They really dig into the topics at hand. That said, there are plenty of complaints with how they spelled out 5. in particular because deciding who gets in is a big deal. There's no upward or downward mobility in that scenario.

I tend to agree with you that the financial payouts bubble seems ready to burst, but they address that directly and give two reasons that may not be so. They talk about new players (Amazon, Facebook, etc.) entering. They also note that College Football is making less than sports like the NBA, despite college football polling as the second most popular "league" behind only the NFL. So there might actually still be room to grow on the media rights front.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:59 pm 
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Outlaw, Good summary.

Mandel (the writer) also notes if one of these options "works' and the TV money explodes and/or becomes much more concentrated on the haves, the issue of paying the players will become paramount. He states specifically how is running a pro league with paid players an integral part of the college mission? Of course the decision is ultimately up to university presidents. Forget the politics below, this may sink the plan on its own. Mandel offers no solution other than noting it is a "problem."

The political issue is throwing more than one half of existing p5 members under the bus to make his version of the super league work with only 28 teams. This is exactly the factor that torpedoed the proposed Champions "Super League" realignment yesterday. It's one thing to shaft the G5. It's entirely something else to arbitrarily convert the P5 to the P2+. As with European soccer, Mandel's proposal simply won't survive politically despite what UT, LSU and others may wishfully speculate about as being the straws (paper of course) that stir the drink.

P.S., He does note that in any expansion scenario, UCF is head and shoulders above any other candidate.


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:49 pm 
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I fear it’s only a matter of time until the top 40-50 schools break away. I was thinking how possible it would be to do a regulation sort, like European soccer. I’m not too knowledgeable about it but I think I get the gist of it.
Let’s say 40 teams make up the super league. The bottom 10 teams get booted to the second half and the top 1 get moved up. I know it would be hell on scheduling but it’s interesting


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:30 pm 
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Does Tulane fit into any of these models? If not, where do we fit? What is the time table (2024)?


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:43 am 
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tjtlja wrote:
Does Tulane fit into any of these models? If not, where do we fit? What is the time table (2024)?


Expansion is the only model above we fit into. The time table is uncertain. Most folks target the 2023-2026 range, but one of the obstacles for any of the more radical options is that the current TV contracts have staggered expiration dates. Some conference rights deals end in 2023 others in 2024 and so on. Because of that it would take serious collaboration (collusion?) across conference lines go make some of these work.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:46 am 
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I know it's long odds but perhaps Tulane's best shot is the Aresco one: Make AAC a true P6 by giving it guaranteed access to a "major" NY bowl or better yet a guaranteed slot in a vastly expanded CFP system. (That would take at least twelve teams and perhaps sixteen teams minimum; a massive and unlikely jump from the existing four.)

Mandel does have an interesting analysis of attractiveness of potential expansion candidates and it boils down to likely interested eyeballs for streaming and "linear TV." UCF tops the list not so much for its recent on field success but rather from being the largest university in US and located in major metro area. Under those criteria Tulane as a smallish private university in a declining metro population center does not make Mandel's expansion candidate list.

Otherwise Tulane's "best" chance is to do a TCU and win like 50 games in four seasons. That requires a lot of novenas or reincarnations if you prefer.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:59 am 
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Total living alumni is a number thrown around as important because everything in realignment is about eyeballs brought to screens. We would suffer under that metric.

Mandel also mentions that school presidents still have a lot of say in these decisions, which I think could help us.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:27 pm 
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Do you’ll believe this break away will eventually happen? Would it be football only? Does anti-trust play any factor into this equation? Thanks for the input.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:40 pm 
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tjtlja wrote:
Do you’ll believe this break away will eventually happen? Would it be football only? Does anti-trust play any factor into this equation? Thanks for the input.


This is pretty much for football only. March madness requires participation from more than just five or six conferences so I doubt they tamper with basketball. Other sports wouldn't be bothered.

I can't really speak to the anti-trust part. I just don't know enough about that.

I believe it will be really hard for something like a 28 team super league to form. There are too many losers in that scenario to make it feasible. It's more likely we see the P5 continue to draw lines around themselves. I think they play more games against each other and fewer against FCS and G5 schools. In that scenario we are ok because the AAC is the best of the G5s, but the Sun Belt, Mac, and CUSA really suffer. Pure speculation on my part, but I could see a world where there aren't 130 FBS programs, but instead closer to 100. This would be the current powers plus the AAC, MWC, and the best of the other three leagues. With fewer payout games I think it gets harder for the smallest of players to survive.

Really though tj, it's impossible to know for sure.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:10 pm 
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tulaneoutlaw wrote:
...
This is pretty much for football only. March madness requires participation from more than just five or six conferences so I doubt they tamper with basketball. Other sports wouldn't be bothered. ...
Well, The BCS/P5 was "just about football, too. But ESPN and the included conferences used every opportunity to use it when talking about basketball, and the hoi polloi went along. The additional football money that flowed from the trust partnership also beefed up other aspects of the insider's athletic programs (and their academic programs, as well), vastly increasing their profiles. They quickly left the non-anointed in the dust, and that gap remains to this day. The new plan will just double down on the college athletics power grab, making those who are forcing it incredibly rich. We'll see larger arenas, larger baseball and football stadia, and a near-complete lock on recruiting.

For anyone who is concerned with a level playing field in intercollegiate athletics, it will be a disaster.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:49 pm 
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Not a very good outlook for us. If they break away, I presume they will be able to draft more than the current 25 thus making it impossible for Tulane and many others to field a viable product. If that day comes, it will be very sad. Hard to believe any-trust would not be our savior.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:21 am 
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Another option is to kick them out of NCAA. A basketball tourney among "P28" becomes a glorified 1950's type NIT. Certainly newsworthy but not especially interesting. Same for other sports. It's like eliminating state championships for high schools. Many of us remember those days.

However it's all about anti-trust. I can assure you the national consortium of big-time litigation firms that took down big tobacco and the like would drool at a chance for a contingent share of treble damages from this one. In addition to the colleges, sue Disney/ESPN. It would take ten years or so to resolve but doable.

I do think out of "collegiality" and common sense, the "P28" and big media/Disney would settle.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:36 am 
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What would happen to the P28 if they were kicked out of the NCAA would be completely dependent on which side ESPN (most sports) and CBS/Turner (hoop tourney) decided to cover. I'd bet they'd choose the P28 and not the rest. In which case, the rest would be relegated to meaningless in the eyes of the general public.

Meanwhile, there's this in California...
viewtopic.php?f=5&t=52906


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:14 am 
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NBC made AFL. You think it or FOX wouldn’t do the same for a non P28 MBB tourney that included UNC, Duke, Nova, Kansas and Kentucky? With Tulane having partners like that the public and the networks wouldn’t be interested?


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:20 am 
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Again I think the P28 is the least likely of these scenarios because that creates the most losers. That doesn't just cut out the present G5, but also most of the middle and bottom of the P5. Do you think Oklahoma legislators will let Oklahoma leave without OK St? They didn't when the PAC-12 came calling in 2010. How about Texas Tech and Texas? Oregon St and Oregon? Iowa and Iowa St.? Do you think Duke, Vanderbilt, Stanford, Northwestern and the other privates will take this lying down? The P28 thing is a doomsday scenario but it's the hardest to pull off. I'd be far more worried about the 65 that currently have power status doing things to further separate themselves from those that don't.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:22 am 
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Baywave1 wrote:
NBC made AFL. You think it or FOX wouldn’t do the same for a non P28 MBB tourney that included UNC, Duke, Nova, Kansas and Kentucky? With Tulane having partners like that the public and the networks wouldn’t be interested?

I think the teams you mentioned would be in the 28. Although the hoops-only schools create a problem, don't they? I guess Villanova would be a nobody in very short order...

Regardless, as outlaw said, ain't gonna happen.

How's the AFL doing, by the way? Not a great comparison if you're arguing the American public wants to watch the "main" teams and also a group of "secondary" teams...


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:24 am 
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PeteRasche wrote:
Baywave1 wrote:
NBC made AFL. You think it or FOX wouldn’t do the same for a non P28 MBB tourney that included UNC, Duke, Nova, Kansas and Kentucky? With Tulane having partners like that the public and the networks wouldn’t be interested?

I think the teams you mentioned would be in the 28. Although the hoops-only schools create a problem, don't they? I guess Villanova would be a nobody in very short order...

Regardless, as outlaw said, ain't gonna happen.

How's the AFL doing, by the way? Not a great comparison if you're arguing the American public wants to watch the "main" teams and also a group of "secondary" teams...
The AFL got merged into the NFL which seems to be a great success.

Hard to imagine all of those 4 basketball schools making the cut (zero chance for Nova)...there are more than 28 schools who fancy themselves as FB powers as it is.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:12 am 
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ml wave wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
Baywave1 wrote:
NBC made AFL. You think it or FOX wouldn’t do the same for a non P28 MBB tourney that included UNC, Duke, Nova, Kansas and Kentucky? With Tulane having partners like that the public and the networks wouldn’t be interested?

I think the teams you mentioned would be in the 28. Although the hoops-only schools create a problem, don't they? I guess Villanova would be a nobody in very short order...

Regardless, as outlaw said, ain't gonna happen.

How's the AFL doing, by the way? Not a great comparison if you're arguing the American public wants to watch the "main" teams and also a group of "secondary" teams...
The AFL got merged into the NFL which seems to be a great success.

Hard to imagine all of those 4 basketball schools making the cut (zero chance for Nova)...there are more than 28 schools who fancy themselves as FB powers as it is.

Sorry, I was thinking of the AAF or whatever it was called, a year or two ago (see how memorable it was?) I didn't expect someone to use an antique reference as a viable comparison. And being merged in counting as a success would argue that... The P28 should be merged back with the rest of the NCAA. So that doesn't really work, does it?

But as outlaw said and I agreed, the simple fact that "who fancies themselves a football school" would be such an ugly scene means that won't happen.


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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:14 am 
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PeteRasche wrote:
ml wave wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
Baywave1 wrote:
NBC made AFL. You think it or FOX wouldn’t do the same for a non P28 MBB tourney that included UNC, Duke, Nova, Kansas and Kentucky? With Tulane having partners like that the public and the networks wouldn’t be interested?

I think the teams you mentioned would be in the 28. Although the hoops-only schools create a problem, don't they? I guess Villanova would be a nobody in very short order...

Regardless, as outlaw said, ain't gonna happen.

How's the AFL doing, by the way? Not a great comparison if you're arguing the American public wants to watch the "main" teams and also a group of "secondary" teams...
The AFL got merged into the NFL which seems to be a great success.

Hard to imagine all of those 4 basketball schools making the cut (zero chance for Nova)...there are more than 28 schools who fancy themselves as FB powers as it is.

Sorry, I was thinking of the AAF or whatever it was called, a year or two ago (see how memorable it was?) I didn't expect someone to use an antique reference as a viable comparison. And being merged in counting as a success would argue that... The P28 should be merged back with the rest of the NCAA. So that doesn't really work, does it?

But as outlaw said and I agreed, the simple fact that "who fancies themselves a football school" would be such an ugly scene means that won't happen.

It's funny because that was this spring!

_________________
#stopbunting
#stopPUNTING!
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:37 am 
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PeteRasche wrote:
ml wave wrote:
PeteRasche wrote:
Baywave1 wrote:
NBC made AFL. You think it or FOX wouldn’t do the same for a non P28 MBB tourney that included UNC, Duke, Nova, Kansas and Kentucky? With Tulane having partners like that the public and the networks wouldn’t be interested?

I think the teams you mentioned would be in the 28. Although the hoops-only schools create a problem, don't they? I guess Villanova would be a nobody in very short order...

Regardless, as outlaw said, ain't gonna happen.

How's the AFL doing, by the way? Not a great comparison if you're arguing the American public wants to watch the "main" teams and also a group of "secondary" teams...
The AFL got merged into the NFL which seems to be a great success.

Hard to imagine all of those 4 basketball schools making the cut (zero chance for Nova)...there are more than 28 schools who fancy themselves as FB powers as it is.

Sorry, I was thinking of the AAF or whatever it was called, a year or two ago (see how memorable it was?) I didn't expect someone to use an antique reference as a viable comparison. And being merged in counting as a success would argue that... The P28 should be merged back with the rest of the NCAA. So that doesn't really work, does it?

But as outlaw said and I agreed, the simple fact that "who fancies themselves a football school" would be such an ugly scene means that won't happen.
I don't know if the intention was to say that it would exactly duplicate the path of AFL/NFL or just say that there's precedent for two competing leagues to succeed. That said, in the unlikely event that this would happen, sure, I think there'd definitely be some merger/expansion. A cutoff at 28 means you're going to have big-time schools on both sides of the fence, and there's infinitely more TV money and options than there was in the '60s...I don't know which direction it would go (teams leaving or joining the 28?) but there's not much of a precedent for colleges turning down money so ultimately there'd be movement one way or the other.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:43 am 
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PeteRasche wrote:
Sorry, I was thinking of the AAF or whatever it was called, a year or two ago (see how memorable it was?) I didn't expect someone to use an antique reference as a viable comparison. And being merged in counting as a success would argue that... The P28 should be merged back with the rest of the NCAA. So that doesn't really work, does it?

But as outlaw said and I agreed, the simple fact that "who fancies themselves a football school" would be such an ugly scene means that won't happen.[/quote]
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Pete, I messed up editing your quote above. Sorry. I'll do better next time...…….

I absolutely agree this is the least likely scenario. Outlaw's conclusions here seem spot on. However it was Mandel's P28 list I was commenting on. We all agree P28 will omit a number of interesting haves.

As for my "antique" references, I prefer the term "seasoned" but it is what it is. Like F54 and others, I'm still pumping for the Wave since way way back when. May it last a little longer and may all of us Greenies here on YOGWF be like Boone Pickens who at 91 was still boosting the OSU Cowboys with urgency to the end because as he said "I don't have much time left." RIP

Roll Wave!


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:33 am 
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I'll just drop this here. Bill C. devotes a section of this article to why UNC hasn't jumped up the SP+ rankings. Good look at some of what goes into SP+.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/27601372/separating-fact-fiction-maryland-usc-trevor-lawrence-more


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