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tulaneoutlaw
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Houston

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

I've bellached my share. Moving on.

Sp+ is out and we've moved up, probably on the strength of k st beating ou. We now have a rating of 5.3, good for 50th. Houston has fallen to 3.3, 60th.

Why does this matter? We will probably be a fg or less dogs on the road. For as bad as we feel, this is where objective minds rate us.
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Wandering Quaker
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Re: Houston

Post by Wandering Quaker »

Holgerson's team is also an underachieving wreck this year.

But they'll still pound us at their place and win by two or more scores.
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Re: Houston

Post by waverider »

Before the season, I picked the Houston game as one of our 4 losses. Now, they seem just as beatable as any team on our schedule. A lot will depend on getting our starters back on offense as they have been critical pieces to our game plan on offense and special teams.

Just as K State bounced back to beat Oklahoma, there’s no reason we can’t do the same (outside of not having the aforementioned players back from injury). Houston is teetering on implosion where everyone quits for the rest of the season. I don’t know how good Rice is, but Houston struggling with them is a sign of how things have digressed there.

Seems like every season in Fritz’s career his teams have a letdown game like the one last night only to bounce back with a win the next week. At least the players won’t spend all week reading praise from the local media.

I had our record at 3-2 after Houston and good news is it can’t be worst than that at this time next week.
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Re: Houston

Post by tjtlja »

waverider wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:23 pm Before the season, I picked the Houston game as one of our 4 losses. Now, they seem just as beatable as any team on our schedule. A lot will depend on getting our starters back on offense as they have been critical pieces to our game plan on offense and special teams.

Just as K State bounced back to beat Oklahoma, there’s no reason we can’t do the same (outside of not having the aforementioned players back from injury). Houston is teetering on implosion where everyone quits for the rest of the season. I don’t know how good Rice is, but Houston struggling with them is a sign of how things have digressed there.

Seems like every season in Fritz’s career his teams have a letdown game like the one last night only to bounce back with a win the next week. At least the players won’t spend all week reading praise from the local media.

I had our record at 3-2 after Houston and good news is it can’t be worst than that at this time next week.
Houston with all their internal problems have better players, more explosive players. I think they will handle us as usual. They have played against teams that have good qb’s. And they bring a lot of pressure. I just don’t see Pratt doing anything. Too many hits, too many runs, and not a very accurate passer. Tough as nails, but that doesn’t mean you can take over a game. Houston should win comfortably. And we haven’t play well in that facility since Tanner Lee and Mr. Hilliard played exceptional on one Saturday afternoon back in the day.
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Re: Houston

Post by purplehaz3 »

I’m sickened by the way we lost that game last light but all is not lost folks. If the below is true, ESPN still projects us to finish 9-3 which would put us at winning the conference or very close. Also means a high profile bowl game:

https://twitter.com/tulanesportsguy/sta ... N1Ej22N3MQ
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Houston

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

purplehaz3 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:35 pm I’m sickened by the way we lost that game last light but all is not lost folks. If the below is true, ESPN still projects us to finish 9-3 which would put us at winning the conference or very close. Also means a high profile bowl game:

https://twitter.com/tulanesportsguy/sta ... N1Ej22N3MQ
I will eat a hat if we go 9-3
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Re: Houston

Post by waverider »

purplehaz3 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:35 pm I’m sickened by the way we lost that game last light but all is not lost folks. If the below is true, ESPN still projects us to finish 9-3 which would put us at winning the conference or very close. Also means a high profile bowl game:

https://twitter.com/tulanesportsguy/sta ... N1Ej22N3MQ
I still think we lose to Houston, UCF and Cincinnati to finish 8-4, but beating Houston and UCF aren’t completely out of the question.
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Houston

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

We open +4.5
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Re: Houston

Post by WaveProf »

waverider wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:42 pm
purplehaz3 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:35 pm I’m sickened by the way we lost that game last light but all is not lost folks. If the below is true, ESPN still projects us to finish 9-3 which would put us at winning the conference or very close. Also means a high profile bowl game:

https://twitter.com/tulanesportsguy/sta ... N1Ej22N3MQ
I still think we lose to Houston, UCF and Cincinnati to finish 8-4, but beating Houston and UCF aren’t completely out of the question.
I’m confident we beat either Houston OR UCF. But we’ll get blown out by one of them too, as well as Cincinnati, and we’ll lose AT LEAST one other conference game. Maybe two
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Houston

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

I will eat a hat if we go 8-4. It's year 7 and we have never won more than 6 games in a season. We just lost one of the most winnable games left on the schedule and I'm supposed to believe we will achieve 2 wins over what we've been able to under this coach? That's fantasy right now
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Re: Houston

Post by 1309th WAVE »

Circa Sports opened Houston -5 61.5 o/u, I suspect that both of those numbers will get massaged down by trading this afternoon
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Houston

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

1309th WAVE wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 2:18 pm Circa Sports opened Houston -5 61.5 o/u, I suspect that both of those numbers will get massaged down by trading this afternoon
You're right. Tulane getting hammered (in a positive direction). Line is now Houston -1
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Re: Houston

Post by DCGreenie »

purplehaz3 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:35 pm I’m sickened by the way we lost that game last light but all is not lost folks. If the below is true, ESPN still projects us to finish 9-3 which would put us at winning the conference or very close. Also means a high profile bowl game:

https://twitter.com/tulanesportsguy/sta ... N1Ej22N3MQ
We will NOT finish 9-3.
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Re: Houston

Post by tjtlja »

waverider wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:42 pm
purplehaz3 wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 12:35 pm I’m sickened by the way we lost that game last light but all is not lost folks. If the below is true, ESPN still projects us to finish 9-3 which would put us at winning the conference or very close. Also means a high profile bowl game:

https://twitter.com/tulanesportsguy/sta ... N1Ej22N3MQ
I still think we lose to Houston, UCF and Cincinnati to finish 8-4, but beating Houston and UCF aren’t completely out of the question.
Add ECU, SMU, Tulsa, and Memphis.

By the way, congratulations. You called last nights performance for several weeks.
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Re: Houston

Post by Roller »

last night, in the wake of our performance against KSt, we performed in much the same way after we nearly beat Oklahoma last year. I hope this doesn't bode for a continued repeat of last year.

As the saying goes, whence goeth Pride?
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Houston

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

After dropping to -1, enough money came in on Houston to push the line back up to -2.5. A field goal feels about right. Total is at 55, so a projection of 29-26 ish
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Re: Houston

Post by purplehaz3 »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:25 am After dropping to -1, enough money came in on Houston to push the line back up to -2.5. A field goal feels about right. Total is at 55, so a projection of 29-26 ish
The reality is, Tulane was the far better team against USM statistically speaking…it should’ve been a blow out. The bookies have this right. Houston hasn’t looked good and Tulane should win if they play at their best (and coach at their best).
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Re: Houston

Post by PeteRasche »

Houston has given up 35 to UTSA, 33 to TTU, 48 to Kansas, and 27 to Rice. They are 116th in points allowed.

So to be blunt, if we can't score quite a bit against them - enough to keep it close or win - we're looking at a bleak year. We might not win Friday, but we need to score 27+ in this game. If we score in the range of 10 to 17, our offense is as broken as last year (WRs not getting open, OL not capable of blocking long enough until they do, Pratt PTSD kicking in and him tucking and running after looking at WR1 only). In that case we're probably not winning more than another game or two (Memphis and/or USF) unless we change QBs, and I don't see us doing that.
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Re: Houston

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

Houston is not a true tempo team, which plays into what we want to do. Clayton Tune has been pretty reliable so far and Nathaniel Dell is a very good WR we will have to contain. They split carries in the backfield between Ta'Zhawn Henry and Brandon Campbell; both have been productive but not extremely dangerous. Tune also keeps the ball quite a bit with limited success.

The key to this game for me is who hits explosive plays. Coming in Houston has 62 plays of 10+ yards and we have 61. They've had 15 plays of 20+ yards. We've had 22. If the defense can play to the same level it has been, limiting explosive plays and making them dink and dunk to beat us, we will have a chance.
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Re: Houston

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PeteRasche wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:52 am Houston has given up 35 to UTSA, 33 to TTU, 48 to Kansas, and 27 to Rice. They are 116th in points allowed.

So to be blunt, if we can't score quite a bit against them - enough to keep it close or win - we're looking at a bleak year. We might not win Friday, but we need to score 27+ in this game. If we score in the range of 10 to 17, our offense is as broken as last year (WRs not getting open, OL not capable of blocking long enough until they do, Pratt PTSD kicking in and him tucking and running after looking at WR1 only). In that case we're probably not winning more than another game or two (Memphis and/or USF) unless we change QBs, and I don't see us doing that.
100%
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Re: Houston

Post by GretnaGrn »

WaveProf wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:12 am
PeteRasche wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:52 am Houston has given up 35 to UTSA, 33 to TTU, 48 to Kansas, and 27 to Rice. They are 116th in points allowed.

So to be blunt, if we can't score quite a bit against them - enough to keep it close or win - we're looking at a bleak year. We might not win Friday, but we need to score 27+ in this game. If we score in the range of 10 to 17, our offense is as broken as last year (WRs not getting open, OL not capable of blocking long enough until they do, Pratt PTSD kicking in and him tucking and running after looking at WR1 only). In that case we're probably not winning more than another game or two (Memphis and/or USF) unless we change QBs, and I don't see us doing that.
100%
Agreed, except that I don't think a QB change would help even if one were made (which I agree won't happen).

UH is rancid on defense and toxic internally. Get up on them by more than one score and they'll fold. To date, we haven't had the mental toughness to bounce back and take out our frustrations on an opponent. Now would be a good time.
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Houston

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

Houston is 99th in defensive SP+. Some of the increased scoring in their games has been due to a couple of OT games so far, but there's no question their defense has been lacking.
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Re: Houston

Post by waverider »

PeteRasche wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 8:52 am Houston has given up 35 to UTSA, 33 to TTU, 48 to Kansas, and 27 to Rice. They are 116th in points allowed.

So to be blunt, if we can't score quite a bit against them - enough to keep it close or win - we're looking at a bleak year. We might not win Friday, but we need to score 27+ in this game. If we score in the range of 10 to 17, our offense is as broken as last year (WRs not getting open, OL not capable of blocking long enough until they do, Pratt PTSD kicking in and him tucking and running after looking at WR1 only). In that case we're probably not winning more than another game or two (Memphis and/or USF) unless we change QBs, and I don't see us doing that.
Those teams might have QBs the coaches aren’t afraid to unleash. If we use the same conservative run-run-pass scheme we did against USM we won’t score a lot. Not having our two TEs and Keys may have played into the game plan some.

However, if we win 17-10 I’ll be just as happy.
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"If you want to win you have to have good players." Vince Gibson
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Re: Houston

Post by PeteRasche »

Speaking of that... any word on Keys? If nothing has been said hopefully it will be addressed on the Current on Wednesday.
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Re: Houston

Post by waverider »

I didn’t even notice that he was out until after the game. I only knew the two TEs weren’t playing because a freshman and a sophomore were in the game an awful lot. I should have been tipped to Keys when a freshman WR we’ve hardly seen dropped a screen pass when he had blockers in front of him.

What I do know, is that Spears is healthy and his limited use against KSU was planned due to Celestine being a more bruising runner against their DL.
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"It's my job to prepare the coaches. It's their job is to prepare the players and the players' job is to play lights out." Willie Fritz

"If you want to win you have to have good players." Vince Gibson
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