2.5 point underdogs, but….

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WaveProf
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2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by WaveProf »

ESPN gives us a 53.4% chance to win
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

SP+ has the Cougars winning by .5 points, but projects the score as 30-30. The line has been as high as Tulane +4.5 and as low as +1. In other words, we are a very live dog from a neutral perspective.

If this game is at all close, we need to have it. Far too often this is the kind of one-score game we come out on the wrong end of.
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PeteRasche
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by PeteRasche »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 3:21 pm SP+ has the Cougars winning by .5 points, but projects the score as 30-30.
I'm gonna go ahead and predict that both of those will not happen. 8)
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by speckled trout »

Even after the disappointing performance on Saturday it wouldn’t surprise me if went to Houston and won by double digits.

Also wouldn’t surprise me if we got torched and lose by double digits.

The only thing that would be surprising is winning a close game on the road without melting down. Kansas State is the only time we’ve done that against anybody worth a cr@p in like 20 years
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by SoFlaWave »

A traditionally bad matchup for us, and now need to deal with it on a short week after a tough loss on national TV. I expected us to be 3-1 at this point, but so disappointed at the result on Saturday that it affected my demeanor much more than usual.

I don’t know what is wrong with Houston but I thought they would run away with the AAC not having to play Cincinnati or UCF. Let’s see if we can put this loss behind us.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by 1309th WAVE »

Market is screaming that Tulane wins. I would be screaming "PRIME Tulane letdown spot" as someone who may or may not have experience with that. For once I don't think so.

deploying that counterfactual is sure to bait a lot of negative replies but I'll attempt to explain the sharp players' angle on this: Tulane still has a top 10 defense in nearly every statistical category, USM is the only team to score more than 1 touchdown on offense against us, the box score yardage margin shows an effort that would've won Tulane that game more often than not (again, counterfactual, you don't have to auto-respond that Tulane lost, we're all allegedly smart people here)... And Houston's results thus far have been suspicous.

I'm just laying that angle out. Hit me with the woe is me angle if you want
Last edited by 1309th WAVE on Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:01 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by waverider »

I knew it was over when someone jumped on starting the prediction thread before me. Now, I don’t know if starting on Friday was the factor or the day before so maybe I’ll mix things up and start it Thursday since it’s the day before.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by PeteRasche »

1309th WAVE wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:54 pm Market is screaming that Tulane wins. I would be screaming "PRIME Tulane letdown spot" as someone who may or may not have experience with that. For once I don't think so.

deploying that counterfactual is sure to bait a lot of negative replies but I'll attempt to explain the sharp players' angle on this: Tulane still has a top 10 defense in nearly every statistical category, USM is the only team to score more than 1 touchdown on offense against us, the box score yardage margin shows an effort that would've won Tulane that game more often than not (again, counterfactual, you don't have to auto-respond that Tulane lost, we're all allegedly smart people here)... And Houston's results thus far have been suspicous.

I'm just laying that angle out. Hit me with the woe is me angle if you want
Stats are all well and good (against terrible opponents, run-only opponents, and mid-pack SBC opponents) but would you lay any significant amount of money that pass-heavy Houston won't have 21+ before halftime? I sure wouldn't. Not that I'm saying it will definitely happen, but I still don't think we know enough to be sure it won't.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

What odds are you giving me on Houston 1H team total under 21 pete? I might bite on that. At current lines vegas probably sets that number at 14.5, so if you're spotting me close to a TD, I'm in.

It's not just our defense working in our favor. We play offense very slowly and they are banged up on d so we should be able to move the ball a bit. I fully expect a classic Tulane on the road moment, but my logic brain agrees with 1309 here
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by tjtlja »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:40 pm What odds are you giving me on Houston 1H team total under 21 pete? I might bite on that. At current lines vegas probably sets that number at 14.5, so if you're spotting me close to a TD, I'm in.

It's not just our defense working in our favor. We play offense very slowly and they are banged up on d so we should be able to move the ball a bit. I fully expect a classic Tulane on the road moment, but my logic brain agrees with 1309 here
The fact we have no sacks the past two weekends makes me believe this could be a long night if we cannot run the ball. Styles of play matter. I hope we can control the clock and more importantly score.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

tjtlja wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 7:09 pm
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:40 pm What odds are you giving me on Houston 1H team total under 21 pete? I might bite on that. At current lines vegas probably sets that number at 14.5, so if you're spotting me close to a TD, I'm in.

It's not just our defense working in our favor. We play offense very slowly and they are banged up on d so we should be able to move the ball a bit. I fully expect a classic Tulane on the road moment, but my logic brain agrees with 1309 here
The fact we have no sacks the past two weekends makes me believe this could be a long night if we cannot run the ball. Styles of play matter. I hope we can control the clock and more importantly score.
I agree. Houston is not a tempo team fwiw. They run 70.5 plays per game. We are at 69.7. And that includes 2 OT games for them. They are also very balanced with a slight lean toward run. 128 pass attempts, 144 rushes.

Point being, they aren't the Case Keenum bomb it downfield team of the past. If they try to run the ball that plays into our favor. Nathaniel Dell has 25 catches but nobody else has more than 11. Take him away and make somebody else beat you. It's a more favorable matchup than you might think. I'm much more worried about Tulsa, who slings the ball all around the yard, and Cinci who is probably just more talented than us at nearly every position
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

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PeteRasche wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:16 pm
1309th WAVE wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:54 pm Market is screaming that Tulane wins. I would be screaming "PRIME Tulane letdown spot" as someone who may or may not have experience with that. For once I don't think so.

deploying that counterfactual is sure to bait a lot of negative replies but I'll attempt to explain the sharp players' angle on this: Tulane still has a top 10 defense in nearly every statistical category, USM is the only team to score more than 1 touchdown on offense against us, the box score yardage margin shows an effort that would've won Tulane that game more often than not (again, counterfactual, you don't have to auto-respond that Tulane lost, we're all allegedly smart people here)... And Houston's results thus far have been suspicous.

I'm just laying that angle out. Hit me with the woe is me angle if you want
Stats are all well and good (against terrible opponents, run-only opponents, and mid-pack SBC opponents) but would you lay any significant amount of money that pass-heavy Houston won't have 21+ before halftime? I sure wouldn't. Not that I'm saying it will definitely happen, but I still don't think we know enough to be sure it won't.
We have to have a game that is completely unlike the So MS game. It has to be a shootout. It has to have us passing 30+ times. A run game between the tackles will not get it done. We would fall behind early and the gap would widen with each quarter. Sure, we have to spring Spears and Celestine every so often to surprise them and get a critical first down, but if Pratt has an arm that can be more accurate than yet seen and receivers that have Super Glue on their hands, we can compete.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by Baywave1 »

Fix special teams and Tulane can win with any offensive scheme it wants. Don’t and it wouldn’t matter if Sid Gillman was the OC.

Giving up 27 points to a team with 250 yards in total offense sums it up.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by ml wave »

DCGreenie wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 9:54 pm
PeteRasche wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 6:16 pm
1309th WAVE wrote: Mon Sep 26, 2022 5:54 pm Market is screaming that Tulane wins. I would be screaming "PRIME Tulane letdown spot" as someone who may or may not have experience with that. For once I don't think so.

deploying that counterfactual is sure to bait a lot of negative replies but I'll attempt to explain the sharp players' angle on this: Tulane still has a top 10 defense in nearly every statistical category, USM is the only team to score more than 1 touchdown on offense against us, the box score yardage margin shows an effort that would've won Tulane that game more often than not (again, counterfactual, you don't have to auto-respond that Tulane lost, we're all allegedly smart people here)... And Houston's results thus far have been suspicous.

I'm just laying that angle out. Hit me with the woe is me angle if you want
Stats are all well and good (against terrible opponents, run-only opponents, and mid-pack SBC opponents) but would you lay any significant amount of money that pass-heavy Houston won't have 21+ before halftime? I sure wouldn't. Not that I'm saying it will definitely happen, but I still don't think we know enough to be sure it won't.
We have to have a game that is completely unlike the So MS game. It has to be a shootout. It has to have us passing 30+ times. A run game between the tackles will not get it done. We would fall behind early and the gap would widen with each quarter. Sure, we have to spring Spears and Celestine every so often to surprise them and get a critical first down, but if Pratt has an arm that can be more accurate than yet seen and receivers that have Super Glue on their hands, we can compete.
Have you not watched our two games vs competitive teams? A shootout? We're not equipped to win that at all. Our defense has been really strong and we'd have beaten USM with competent special teams.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

I don't even think Houston really wants a "shootout". That's not their style of play either as I tried to allude to above. They'd be very happy to win with 30 points, hardly a shootout in today's world. Actually in their four games so far, they've scored between 30 and 37 each time out, and two of those are with OT. Seriously, they scored 37 against UTSA but 13 of those were in OT and 30 against Texas Tech but 10 of those came in OT.

So you're talking about a team that averages 27 points per game in regulation and they've yet to play a defense as good as ours has been, either. Maybe we can't score 30+ against them, but let's don't act like Case Keenum is bombing us for 73 like its 2011.
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Re: 2.5 point underdogs, but….

Post by Marathon Wave »

Baywave1 wrote: Tue Sep 27, 2022 10:24 am Fix special teams and Tulane can win with any offensive scheme it wants. Don’t and it wouldn’t matter if Sid Gillman was the OC.

Giving up 27 points to a team with 250 yards in total offense sums it up.
Amen, brother.
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