Early line....

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sprout1550
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Early line....

Post by sprout1550 »

Tulane favored by 2.5... Vegas thinks a rematch against UCF favors TU.
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WaveProf
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Re: Early line....

Post by WaveProf »

ESPN gives us 59.3% chance to win
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Early line....

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

Now up to 28th, 12.4 in sp+. Ucf is back at 36th, 10.3. That would make the expected line closer to 4.5 than the 2.5 that's out there.

Cinci is still ahead of us at 24th, 13.1 but that's more residual from their high starting point.
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Re: Early line....

Post by 1401973 »

sprout1550 wrote: Sun Nov 27, 2022 10:33 am Tulane favored by 2.5... Vegas thinks a rematch against UCF favors TU.
Good God.
We are 10-2 v the spread in 2022 and Vegas gives us another Christmas present.
The bet of the year?
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1309th WAVE
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Re: Early line....

Post by 1309th WAVE »

Already went to -3.
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Re: Early line....

Post by 1401973 »

Of course all bets are off now with the chaos.
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WaveProf
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Re: Early line....

Post by WaveProf »

Line now Tulane by 3.5

ESPN gives us 59% chance to win
“We will expect success in all endeavors and be prepared to assess and hold ourselves accountable when we aren't successful. Tulane is a top 40 academic institution and it should expect nothing less from its athletic department.” --Troy Dannen 11.5.16
LawGreenie
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Re: Early line....

Post by LawGreenie »

The money line is UCF +140.

I'm holding a Tulane AAC champion ticket at +2800.

The smart play is to hedge with the UCF moneyline, but it just feels wrong.
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Re: Early line....

Post by Baywave1 »

Good point. As fans we should never feel good because we bet against Tulane (and won ) we should feel bad when tulane loses, period. 1-0
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Re: Early line....

Post by WaveProf »

LawGreenie wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:26 am The money line is UCF +140.

I'm holding a Tulane AAC champion ticket at +2800.

The smart play is to hedge with the UCF moneyline, but it just feels wrong.
This is written in Greek to me lol
“We will expect success in all endeavors and be prepared to assess and hold ourselves accountable when we aren't successful. Tulane is a top 40 academic institution and it should expect nothing less from its athletic department.” --Troy Dannen 11.5.16
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Poseidon
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Re: Early line....

Post by Poseidon »

WaveProf wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:30 am
LawGreenie wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:26 am The money line is UCF +140.

I'm holding a Tulane AAC champion ticket at +2800.

The smart play is to hedge with the UCF moneyline, but it just feels wrong.
This is written in Greek to me lol
He can hedge his bet to whatever extent he desires by betting on UCF and win money either way.
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Poseidon
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Re: Early line....

Post by Poseidon »

LawGreenie wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 9:26 am The money line is UCF +140.

I'm holding a Tulane AAC champion ticket at +2800.

The smart play is to hedge with the UCF moneyline, but it just feels wrong.
You could hedge to half of the Tulane profit. I think that's acceptable. Still pulling for Tulane to win and if UCF wins give half of the ill gotten profits to The Green Wave collective.
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Re: Early line....

Post by Cheerleader »

Don't hedge...that would be bad juju.
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Re: Early line....

Post by enviro5609 »

Tulane up to -4 now.
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Re: Early line....

Post by Marathon Wave »

Could this be due to Fritz' staying? I asked about how that might effect odds yesterday. Told not so much.
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Re: Early line....

Post by wavedom »

Likely due to Plumlee not playing at all or being limited if he does play.
We deserve so much better
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Re: Early line....

Post by Marathon Wave »

wavedom wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 4:09 pm Likely due to Plumlee not playing at all or being limited if he does play.
Probably right on that one.
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tulaneoutlaw
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Re: Early line....

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

Sometimes a qb out is worth a lot more than half point, but the drop-off between plumlee and Keene isn't that stark even though their games are very different. This could also be normal line movement. A shift of 1.5 points isn't unusual, even across a key number. If it gets to 4.5 or 5 then something is up
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Re: Early line....

Post by waverider »

I have it on pretty good authority that the officiating crew from the last game with UCF will not be there for this one. That won’t sway Vegas but it will make a difference.
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Re: Early line....

Post by 1401973 »

That is very good news. They were a bunch of amateurs.

I would take the crew from the Cincy game.
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Re: Early line....

Post by Roller »

1401973 wrote: Wed Nov 30, 2022 6:02 pm That is very good news. They were a bunch of amateurs...
and biased amateurs at that.
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WaveProf
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Re: Early line....

Post by WaveProf »

we've never bet on sports and don't plan to really start now, but we got one of those promos from the new online sports betting where if you win your first 5 dollar bet you get 6 $25 free bets, so my wife and I bet against each other on MNF, and are using the free bets for the football conference championship games. They then gave us a free bet for a live-game, and against my suggestion, she bet on The Citadel in honor of Ed Conroy going back there, and Ed Conroy won us 25 bucks by a single free throw. Now I have to live with being beholden to Ed Conroy the rest of my life? Betting is not fun :angel:
“We will expect success in all endeavors and be prepared to assess and hold ourselves accountable when we aren't successful. Tulane is a top 40 academic institution and it should expect nothing less from its athletic department.” --Troy Dannen 11.5.16
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PeteRasche
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Re: Early line....

Post by PeteRasche »

WaveProf wrote: Thu Dec 01, 2022 8:26 am we've never bet on sports and don't plan to really start now, but we got one of those promos from the new online sports betting where if you win your first 5 dollar bet you get 6 $25 free bets, so my wife and I bet against each other on MNF, and are using the free bets for the football conference championship games. They then gave us a free bet for a live-game, and against my suggestion, she bet on The Citadel in honor of Ed Conroy going back there, and Ed Conroy won us 25 bucks by a single free throw. Now I have to live with being beholden to Ed Conroy the rest of my life? Betting is not fun :angel:
Donate the $25 to a charity and you are no longer beholden.
I recommend the Tulane NIL charity. :wink:
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