SP+ rankings of new conferences

For Discussion of Conference & Conference Teams other than Tulane
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 7245
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

Here's how each conference stacks up using year end SP+ with the new conference members. Yeah, yeah I know these change from year to year but I think it's telling that top to bottom we would've been basically even with the Sun Belt with them having a slight advantage. If this pattern does hold it will be critical that we continue to maintain the edge at the top of the conferences, which will net us the ny6 and playoff bid more often. Also note the separation between belt and aac and everyone else.

Image
User avatar
waverider
Cornerstone
Posts: 29653
Joined: Sat Jun 26, 2004 5:20 pm
Location: North Kenner

Re: SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by waverider »

If I’m reading that correctly, AAC is once again expected to have the NY6 representative with Tulane being the school to do so.

Interesting that Memphis is rated higher than ranked UTSA which shows the AAC is much tougher than CUSA is. (SP+ does factor in strength of opponents right?)
Tulane Greenbackers

"If you ain’t Wave, you ain’t shìt." Willie Fritz winsurf chant

"If you want to win you have to have good players." Vince Gibson
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 7245
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

waverider wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 8:20 am If I’m reading that correctly, AAC is once again expected to have the NY6 representative with Tulane being the school to do so.

Interesting that Memphis is rated higher than ranked UTSA which shows the AAC is much tougher than CUSA is. (SP+ does factor in strength of opponents right?)
Yes to your second paragraph, this is opponent adjusted so utsa has to perform much better against weaker competition than Memphis does against stronger competition to get the same rating.

To your first point, this is end of season rating. Sp+ will be adjusted further for recruiting classes (and transfers I think) and returning production. I do not know if we will be the favorite for ny6 or not but we will be among the favorites. We do lose enough that it won't shock me if we are 4th or 5th highest odds.
User avatar
PeteRasche
Cornerstone
Posts: 28777
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2005 11:52 am
Location: Cincinnati, OH

Re: SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by PeteRasche »

tulaneoutlaw wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:09 amI do not know if we will be the favorite for ny6 or not but we will be among the favorites. We do lose enough that it won't shock me if we are 4th or 5th highest odds.
Not that it means anything whatsoever, but I have seen at least one or two sportswriters who referenced us in their "way too early 2023 preseason polls" as the "clear frontrunner" for the G5 NY6 spot.

That may have been 100% them looking at our 2022 results and seeing that Pratt returns, or maybe they actually did a little homework and looked at SP+ and such. But let's be honest, it was probably the former. :lol:
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 7245
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

PeteRasche wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:24 am
tulaneoutlaw wrote: Wed Jan 18, 2023 11:09 amI do not know if we will be the favorite for ny6 or not but we will be among the favorites. We do lose enough that it won't shock me if we are 4th or 5th highest odds.
Not that it means anything whatsoever, but I have seen at least one or two sportswriters who referenced us in their "way too early 2023 preseason polls" as the "clear frontrunner" for the G5 NY6 spot.

That may have been 100% them looking at our 2022 results and seeing that Pratt returns, or maybe they actually did a little homework and looked at SP+ and such. But let's be honest, it was probably the former. :lol:
I think you are right, although Pratt returning helps our sp+ too. Qb and receiver are most heavily weighted in sp+ on offense. On defense it's secondary and then d line.
nolasilver
Crest Level
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:49 pm

Re: SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by nolasilver »

What’s slightly frustrating is the aac could have likely had its pick of the sunbelt teams and james Madison and been a g5 “super conference”.

Bill mentioned the acc had a rank of approx a 3 and the pac was a 6. If we took the best of the g5, we would be stronger than the pac.
User avatar
tulaneoutlaw
Regent's Circle
Posts: 7245
Joined: Wed Dec 01, 2010 10:49 pm
Location: Greeneville, TN

Re: SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by tulaneoutlaw »

nolasilver wrote: Thu Jan 19, 2023 11:48 pm What’s slightly frustrating is the aac could have likely had its pick of the sunbelt teams and james Madison and been a g5 “super conference”.

Bill mentioned the acc had a rank of approx a 3 and the pac was a 6. If we took the best of the g5, we would be stronger than the pac.
Yep, but I don't think we were ever going to be allowed to poach from the Belt. Our ESPN overlords saw to that. What you propose makes too much sense from a competitive standpoint. We should have been able to pluck who we wanted from cusa and the belt, maybe 2 from each or some other combo.

From a TV standpoint, it made far more sense for espn to try and gut leagues they didn't have a piece of. So we went first for mwc teams and when that fell through, cusa. Then the belt came along and grabbed anything left of value in cusa leaving that league a shell. I will never ever believe espn didn't dictate all our moves.
nolasilver
Crest Level
Posts: 101
Joined: Thu Dec 22, 2022 9:49 pm

Re: SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by nolasilver »

Troy Dannen was on record as saying he was in favor of keeping expansion small (2-4 teams). But ESPN dictated that in order to keep the TV deal in place at the same level of $$$ they would have to do the larger expansion. I don't believe he weighed in on if the specific teams were chosen by espn, but i'm sure they were. It sounded like he wanted UAB/UTSA and to a lesser extent a couple others. Not sure anyone really wanted Charlotte/Rice/UNT but thats what ESPN wanted. Not adding James Madison was a mistake
Baywave1
Emerald Circle
Posts: 10462
Joined: Tue Jun 21, 2005 8:48 am

Re: SP+ rankings of new conferences

Post by Baywave1 »

It did work out for ESPN

1. Extended AAC for two years (Correct?) for moderate fee

2. Got more inventory from AAC

3. Prevented AAC from cannibalizing Belt thus preserving integrity of top two G5s as ESPN properties.

4. Kneecapped CUSA enough to force it to

5. Agree to midweek Maction 2


Other than AAC extension, getting CUSA to agree to mid-week games may be biggest coup of all. Maction gets decent ratings for good value. ESPN now has almost doubled that specialized inventory.
Post Reply