Pac 12 Realignment

[tjtlja]

Very frank and fun interview with UA Prez posted in Athletic tonight. (Behind a paywall)

Does not talk about other expansion candidates than SDSU/SMU. Mentions how important it is to get PAC into Texas.

Talks positively about Big 12 for UA basketball.

No decision until media deal is done. Expects it to exceed Big 12.

He says a lot of media smoke about realignment is all aggressive PR selling from Big 12 and it’s Commissioner. He infers little of it is good reporting.

If PAC deal exceeds Big 12, I don’t see UA moving. If it doesn’t, I guess we will know in a few weeks.

Bay, you and Pete have done a great job of providing information on realignment and it is greatly appreciated. Just hoping Tulane is in that number sooner than later!

[Baywave1]

Arizona Prez has done numerous press interviews this week to proclaim unity of PAC and combat the super aggressive PR push from Big 12 Commisioner and “12-anons” to blow apart the PAC so it can recruit the choicest parts.

Consistent message in all interviews but in one he did give offhanded comment that SDSU brings San Diego market not LaLa Land

I still think SDSU is PACs number one expansion target as it keeps Big 12 out of SoCal. However for Tulane to get a bid now, it almost certainly requires PAC adding four teams which is still a long shot. We still will all buy that lottery ticket

Tulane’s best chance is to keep winning to strengthen resume so its recruitment becomes inevitable to a P5 but it may be five to ten years

[tjtlja]

Was there any validity to the report that the majority of PAC presidents approving/wanting Tulane as a primary candidate?

[Baywave1]

Tony, Perhaps. All we know for sure is that to date there have not been enough super majority votes to do anything except issue a “Proclamation of Unity” or whatever you want to call a literal self-vote of confidence in the PAC.

I think we go back to basics. PAC probably will (must) expand. Tulane is high on list of candidates but not highest. Unless PAC needs inventory, it stays at 12 members at most. (Could even try 11 adding just SDSU.) So if Two or more of Four corners schools move to Big 12, I think PAC 12 invites Tulane in a few weeks. If no one leaves, we probably get the bronze medal and have to wait for ACC or ???

Need to keep winning AND academic /AAU appeal in meantime

[Baywave1]

Side historical note but biggest blunder PAC made was not having FOX as a co-owner of PAC Network. They thought it could be another YES and they would make billions selling it.

Instead it incentivized FOX which co-owns B1G Netwirk to provide bounty money to successfully raid USCLA from PAC. FOX never would have done this if it had a PAC Network investment to protect.

So now PAC Networks value appears to be simply a turnkey production vehicle for a potential secondary streaming partner like Amazon or Apple.

PAC is learning hard way that owning 100% of a little has much less worth than owning 50% of something more valuable. If they had done the latter, it is much more likely USCLA would have stayed put

In this sense perhaps Tulane which has suffered from decades of its own conference stupidity leaving SEC benefits now from PAC management stumbling.

Let’s hope so!!

[PeteRasche]

I still think the silence is indicative of what I previously postulated:

- no media companies are offering big sums to the PAC as it stands,
- no media companies are interested in the four corners jumping to the Big 12,
- the PAC ADs know they *have* to add SDSU to reclaim southern California, but the academic school presidents aren't super keen on that,
- the potential media suitors who are currently underbidding are less enamored with a PAC that includes SDSU and SMU than they even are with it as-is,
-... so the whole thing is at an impasse.

But if anything breaks free, my guess is that the PAC will stay exactly as they are and get a new media deal that will be smaller than the Big 12 but still large enough to clearly keep them "P5". Then all attention will turn to the Big 12 to see if they raid and pillage.

[ml wave]

Potential = Forecast = Future. That has to play in to the equation. It certainly did for UCF.

I would say potential had nothing to do with it for any of the three leaving schools. They all proved they had what was needed before being chosen. UCF, Cincy, and Houston had many years of success, have very large donors, and have much larger enrollments...which means more alumni, which means more viewers watching the commercials during time outs.

And what is the size of their athletic budget compared to ours? 2x?

I already posted somewhere - I think a thread in "non-Tulane" - about the incredible amount of money the three universities (the academic part) give to athletics every year. Houston gives its athletic department almost $40M per year. But it worked, and I suspect with Big 12 money rolling in, those numbers will drop significantly (for all three schools).

I highly doubt those subsidies will stop -- that's not how universities operate. Once a department gets its claws in a funding source, you only pry it loose from cold, dead hands. (Looking at you, Sophie Newcomb.)

One thing that has seemed to cool is the fait accompli that SMU and SDSU are going to the PAC12.

Yeah, there's no way their budgets are going down, and they're probably going to increase more than the delta in conference payouts.

From the "ask and ye shall receive" files...an excellent article from the athletic on the transition that Houston is making to the Big 12. Relevant parts for this discussion:

-Media rights payout increasing from $7MM in AAC to $18MM first year in Big12, then $19MM, then full share in year 3 which is expected to be north of $40MM.
-Current athletic budget is $78MM, projected to be $97.5MM next year, then $105-108MM, then $112-115MM.

So first year media revenue increasing by $11MM but budget going up by almost $20MM. Ultimately media revenue increase is $33MM but budget increasing by $34MM (using low end of the range). Would assume they're getting increased revenue from ticket sales/donations as a result of the conference switch, but a cautionary tale for those that think it's a financial windfall...if we get an invite it will almost definitely be predicated on giant increases in spending.

They're also breaking ground on a $140MM football ops building (connected to the stadium and incorporates additional suites, etc.).

[PeteRasche]

It's pretty clear (if not publicly stated somewhere) that building a football ops building (or "athletic performance center", if you want to get cutesy) ... full training facilities, weight room, team dining room, massive team locker room, all team breakout classrooms, players' lounge, physical therapy spaces including hydrotherapy and isolation spaces, etc., etc., etc., was a mandatory requisite of their joining the Big 12. They didn't necessarily need to have it in place, but they had to commit to building it.

[tulaneoutlaw]

I'm not too familiar with the news outlet here, but it has the University of Arizona's president on record as saying the original B10 deal was for USC and Oregon, not UCLA. Fox stepped in and consolidated LA for fear another league (the SEC?) might try and horn in on that territory. In any case, it tells me the Big Ten presidents had serious interest in the Pacific Northwest and may still in the future as things move forward. In fact, this article seems to indicate the Ducks could join the B10 for a reduced rate and still get more than staying in the Pac

https://www.outkick.com/pac-12-oregon-big-ten-usc-ucla/

[ml wave]

I'm not too familiar with the news outlet here, but it has the University of Arizona's president on record as saying the original B10 deal was for USC and Oregon, not UCLA. Fox stepped in and consolidated LA for fear another league (the SEC?) might try and horn in on that territory. In any case, it tells me the Big Ten presidents had serious interest in the Pacific Northwest and may still in the future as things move forward. In fact, this article seems to indicate the Ducks could join the B10 for a reduced rate and still get more than staying in the Pac

https://www.outkick.com/pac-12-oregon-big-ten-usc-ucla/

Interesting. Gotta think Oregon has enough juice/self-respect not to take a reduced rate though.

[PeteRasche]

I dunno, I'd swallow my pride and take $60M over $30M, ya know?
(I'm making up numbers but some are saying the next Big 10 deal could be $80-90M per team)

[Baywave1]

Outkick is a national site that does reliable reporting although they prefer to give it an “edgy and hip” tone. Geezers like me call it snarky.

Regardless it’s interesting that UA Prez outs Oregon on this. That’s not helpful for conference solidarity. Maybe Oregon folks have been beating on him for playing footsie with B12.

I still like him hitting the “12-anon” types on internet attacking stability of PAC.

Who cares. We need someone else to bolt from PAC to create slot for Tulane. No prediction here if it will happen but I’m rooting for it

[ml wave]

I dunno, I'd swallow my pride and take $60M over $30M, ya know?
(I'm making up numbers but some are saying the next Big 10 deal could be $80-90M per team)

I'm sure there's a level where the $$ are too big to ignore, but put it in your terms...you work at a small construction company where everyone makes $100k...two of your friends leave for a slightly larger competitor where everyone makes $200k...you say that sounds neat and they're interested in hiring you (your friends say good things!) but they say they'll only pay you 150k...you point out that you'll be the only one making 150 while everyone else makes 200 for the same work...nope, still 150...ok, now you politely say that you're way more valuable of an employee than at least half the people at the new company...nope, still 150. You might not be so quick to swallow your pride...plus, factor in that you've got tons of money in the bank as it is and a generous benefactor who makes sure that you want for nothing.

[nolasilver]

I think that’s some questionable reporting/spin.

1) when usc/ucla left it was a shocker and has been handled in the utmost of secrecy. So oregan was also in the know and part of negotiations ?

2) Oregon then stepped aside and let Ucla take their place at the big table with a huge deal, and still nothing leaked ?

3) The fact they still aren’t part of the BIG and seemingly are jittery about staying in the pac, also leads me to believe there wasnt a back room handshake deal reached between Oregon/Ucla and the B1G.

That doesn’t seem likely. But perhaps I’m wrong, and Oregon knows they’re up next and they do have a deal.

[PeteRasche]

I dunno, I'd swallow my pride and take $60M over $30M, ya know?
(I'm making up numbers but some are saying the next Big 10 deal could be $80-90M per team)

I'm sure there's a level where the $$ are too big to ignore, but put it in your terms...you work at a small construction company where everyone makes $100k...two of your friends leave for a slightly larger competitor where everyone makes $200k...you say that sounds neat and they're interested in hiring you (your friends say good things!) but they say they'll only pay you 150k...you point out that you'll be the only one making 150 while everyone else makes 200 for the same work...nope, still 150...ok, now you politely say that you're way more valuable of an employee than at least half the people at the new company...nope, still 150. You might not be so quick to swallow your pride...plus, factor in that you've got tons of money in the bank as it is and a generous benefactor who makes sure that you want for nothing.

Always remember "the parable of the workers in the field".
Yeah, your example is true, but as you say, there's always a number... and if the new PAC contract is as small as some think it could be (based on the apparent lack of fighting-over-rights), a number "less than the rest" in the Big 10 could still end up waaaay larger than whatever the PAC gets. If course, one would think the offers being made to the PAC have to be cognizant of that, so they can't go too low... Or else they have to build in stupid, ridiculous buy-out numbers.

[ml wave]

I dunno, I'd swallow my pride and take $60M over $30M, ya know?
(I'm making up numbers but some are saying the next Big 10 deal could be $80-90M per team)

I'm sure there's a level where the $$ are too big to ignore, but put it in your terms...you work at a small construction company where everyone makes $100k...two of your friends leave for a slightly larger competitor where everyone makes $200k...you say that sounds neat and they're interested in hiring you (your friends say good things!) but they say they'll only pay you 150k...you point out that you'll be the only one making 150 while everyone else makes 200 for the same work...nope, still 150...ok, now you politely say that you're way more valuable of an employee than at least half the people at the new company...nope, still 150. You might not be so quick to swallow your pride...plus, factor in that you've got tons of money in the bank as it is and a generous benefactor who makes sure that you want for nothing.

Always remember "the parable of the workers in the field".
Yeah, your example is true, but as you say, there's always a number... and if the new PAC contract is as small as some think it could be (based on the apparent lack of fighting-over-rights), a number "less than the rest" in the Big 10 could still end up waaaay larger than whatever the PAC gets. If course, one would think the offers being made to the PAC have to be cognizant of that, so they can't go too low... Or else they have to build in stupid, ridiculous buy-out numbers.

I'd be really surprised if Oregon took less than a full share. They're not dilutive to a conference, there's no reason for them to.

[Poseidon]

I dunno, I'd swallow my pride and take $60M over $30M, ya know?
(I'm making up numbers but some are saying the next Big 10 deal could be $80-90M per team)

I'm sure there's a level where the $$ are too big to ignore, but put it in your terms...you work at a small construction company where everyone makes $100k...two of your friends leave for a slightly larger competitor where everyone makes $200k...you say that sounds neat and they're interested in hiring you (your friends say good things!) but they say they'll only pay you 150k...you point out that you'll be the only one making 150 while everyone else makes 200 for the same work...nope, still 150...ok, now you politely say that you're way more valuable of an employee than at least half the people at the new company...nope, still 150. You might not be so quick to swallow your pride...plus, factor in that you've got tons of money in the bank as it is and a generous benefactor who makes sure that you want for nothing.

Always remember "the parable of the workers in the field".
Yeah, your example is true, but as you say, there's always a number... and if the new PAC contract is as small as some think it could be (based on the apparent lack of fighting-over-rights), a number "less than the rest" in the Big 10 could still end up waaaay larger than whatever the PAC gets. If course, one would think the offers being made to the PAC have to be cognizant of that, so they can't go too low... Or else they have to build in stupid, ridiculous buy-out numbers.

I would also factor in how many kids Oregon has as well as the number of credit cards his wife has in his name...

[PeteRasche]

Well, if Oregon is worth full price, their basketball program isn't doing them any favors ...

https://www.si.com/college/2023/03/22/o ... -wisconsin

(side note: Altman was the coach at Kansas State when we upset them in the first round of the NCAA tourney in 1993. Dude's been around a while.)

[nolasilver]

Fascinating article where the author interviews a former SVP of Fox Sports and asks if SMU would generate value for the PAC -12. A lot of great stuff in here and most of it applies to us.


https://www.oregonlive.com/collegefootb ... helps.html

Take aways:

It’s not always about this contract but the next one (developing SMU and their resources with a P5 label could make them an asset next time)

Yes, SMU is probably a good add, especially at a half share and they could be a real asset by the next contract.

Many elements in valuing a school and some are non traditional- where are their alumni ? Where are their students from ? What is the network trying to accomplish ?

What’s the value generated from bringing the games and retransmission into a central time zone ? It doesn’t matter if Texas/ a&m and Oklahoma are bigger draws in the market, SMU can still bring value.

What does the conference value ? Research ? Academics ?

[Yankeewave]

https://collegefootballnews.com/news/co ... ew-in-2023

prediction for the big 12

[Baywave1]

Fun spitballing. Why not? I’d rather go to Waco and Morgantown than Pullman and Corvallis

[tulaneoutlaw]

Fun spitballing. Why not? I’d rather go to Waco and Morgantown than Pullman and Corvallis

I love this quote:

All of the good football programs left, except for the one that won the AAC Championship and the Cotton Bowl.

Throwing shade at SMU and Memphis while touting us at the same time. You love to see it.

[Yankeewave]

Certainly different from the past press we’ve received.

[MNAlum]

Fun spitballing. Why not? I’d rather go to Waco and Morgantown than Pullman and Corvallis

I love this quote:

All of the good football programs left, except for the one that won the AAC Championship and the Cotton Bowl.

Throwing shade at SMU and Memphis while touting us at the same time. You love to see it.

Well said TOutlaw!

[tjtlja]

Fun spitballing. Why not? I’d rather go to Waco and Morgantown than Pullman and Corvallis

I love this quote:

All of the good football programs left, except for the one that won the AAC Championship and the Cotton Bowl.

Throwing shade at SMU and Memphis while touting us at the same time. You love to see it.

Well said TOutlaw!

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