Polls

[GreenWave80]

Indeed, we win out, we'll get the NY6 nod.
1-0

Keep your eyes on Fresno State. I don't think they can beat Arizona State AND run the table in the MWC, but if they did, they'd likely get in ahead of us. Already beat Purdue. Again, not overly worried, but they are at least the one team that needs to lose to fall behind us

I hear ya, Prof. But Fresno barely beat Eastern Washington, now 0-2, (is that a real team?) In 2OT. Anywho, I'll put a little gris gris on them.

Fresno needs to take a L this week v. Arizona State. 2 "P5" wins, as sorry as those 2 "P5s" are, wouldn't be optimal.

Well....after review, beating two horribly awful (even tho P5) teams shouldn't garner too many points.
We need our opponents to do well outside of playing us. W/L record isn't the final say.

Exactly why I think we need to find a way to schedule games against teams like Purdue, Indiana, Vandy, Arizona, etc. A win looks good because they're P5, even though they're not ranked teams.

[Marathon Wave]

Indeed, we win out, we'll get the NY6 nod.
1-0

Keep your eyes on Fresno State. I don't think they can beat Arizona State AND run the table in the MWC, but if they did, they'd likely get in ahead of us. Already beat Purdue. Again, not overly worried, but they are at least the one team that needs to lose to fall behind us

I hear ya, Prof. But Fresno barely beat Eastern Washington, now 0-2, (is that a real team?) In 2OT. Anywho, I'll put a little gris gris on them.

Fresno needs to take a L this week v. Arizona State. 2 "P5" wins, as sorry as those 2 "P5s" are, wouldn't be optimal.

Well....after review, beating two horribly awful (even tho P5) teams shouldn't garner too many points.
We need our opponents to do well outside of playing us. W/L record isn't the final say.

Exactly why I think we need to find a way to schedule games against teams like Purdue, Indiana, Vandy, Arizona, etc. A win looks good because they're P5, even though they're not ranked teams.

Well that's certainly a thought.

[waverider]

Bill Connelly gives the 7 top-15 teams playing on the road this week a 15% chance of all 7 winning. A good showing by us and a couple of those losing and we could get just on the edge of the 25. It would depend a lot on which teams lose and to who.

We need style points the next two weeks. At worst, we go 3-0 and get ranked going into the bye week.

[PeteRasche]

Bill Connelly gives the 7 top-15 teams playing on the road this week a 15% chance of all 7 winning. A good showing by us and a couple of those losing and we could get just on the edge of the 25. It would depend a lot on which teams lose and to who.

To be fair, it always depends on that.

The Top 15 losing usually has little to no effect on teams outside the top 25. Those teams usually just shuffle positions. What we need are the teams 16-25 to be losing.

. We need style points the next two weeks. At worst, we go 3-0 and get ranked going into the bye week.

We definitely need style points. I don't know how many you get against Nicholls (beating them 33-0 or 63-0 probably registers the same in the public's eye), but it would be good to not squeak by either USM or UAB. However, the most important thing by far is that we enter the bye week 4-1. Whether we get ranked by that point will all depend on what happens with 16-25 and the other ARV teams.

[waverider]

Bill Connelly gives the 7 top-15 teams playing on the road this week a 15% chance of all 7 winning. A good showing by us and a couple of those losing and we could get just on the edge of the 25. It would depend a lot on which teams lose and to who.

We need style points the next two weeks. At worst, we go 3-0 and get ranked going into the bye week.

The first one has fallen as #15 K St loses at Missouri (now 3-0). Being an sec team I’m guessing they jump into the poll but K State may drop out.

[Marathon Wave]

Bill Connelly gives the 7 top-15 teams playing on the road this week a 15% chance of all 7 winning. A good showing by us and a couple of those losing and we could get just on the edge of the 25. It would depend a lot on which teams lose and to who.

We need style points the next two weeks. At worst, we go 3-0 and get ranked going into the bye week.

The first one has fallen as #15 K St loses at Missouri (now 3-0). Being an sec team I’m guessing they jump into the poll but K State may drop out.

61 yd field goal. THAT'S 61!

[waverider]

I forgot to add that. That was a great kick that seemed to be in the air for over a minute.

[Marathon Wave]

I got a beer and came back before it went thru uprights.

[WaveProf]

No one is falling out. If anything Mizzou is moving ahead of us and in. GOtta give it a week or two for conference games to become the norm so the wheat can separate from the chaffe

[waverider]

No one is falling out. If anything Mizzou is moving ahead of us and in. GOtta give it a week or two for conference games to become the norm so the wheat can separate from the chaffe

If only every voter were required to learn the correlation of our win over USA to their win over Ok State and our close loss with Ole Miss with our backup QB to them blowing Ga Tech out.

[WaveProf]

If only every voter were required to learn the correlation of our win over USA to their win over Ok State and our close loss with Ole Miss with our backup QB to them blowing Ga Tech out.

I do think enough noticed this that we are going to move up faster (as spots become available) than we otherwise would with our schedule. And we might even pick up some votes this week. But not enough voters are going to bump us OVER other teams that win to make us move spots, or many spots, until teams lose IMO

[PeteRasche]

Absolutely correct prof (that's what I'd been arguing all summer with those claiming we could make the CFP.). We're already to the point in our schedule where we have no more impressive wins to leap us over other winners. We're only going to move if people in front of us lose, at least until we're like 6-1 or 7-1 and voters start noticing winning streaks. The undefeated P5s will keep sliding up and the higher P5s who lose will slide down but won't leave the 25 unless they lose 2 or even 3 times. We really need the teams 15-25 to start losing ASAP (and many will).

I really hope we stay ahead of Fresno State in votes this week. Garland Gilland could've done us a solid by actually voting for us (unlike last week) after seeing what our defense did to Gore IN PERSON, but he just tweeted his vote this week and we're still not in. Sheesh.

[waverider]

Absolutely correct prof (that's what I'd been arguing all summer with those claiming we could make the CFP.). We're already to the point in our schedule where we have no more impressive wins to leap us over other winners. We're only going to move if people in front of us lose, at least until we're like 6-1 or 7-1 and voters start noticing winning streaks. The undefeated P5s will keep sliding up and the higher P5s who lose will slide down but won't leave the 25 unless they lose 2 or even 3 times. We really need the teams 15-25 to start losing ASAP (and many will).

I really hope we stay ahead of Fresno State in votes this week. Garland Gilland could've done us a solid by actually voting for us (unlike last week) after seeing what our defense did to Gore IN PERSON, but he just tweeted his vote this week and we're still not in. Sheesh.

Now that conference play is starting, there will be more teams in that 15-25 range that will start to pick up losses. The problem will still exist if any of those are sec teams and only drop a spot or two after losing to an equally mediocre sec team.

[PeteRasche]

Now that conference play is starting, there will be more teams in that 15-25 range that will start to pick up losses.

Yeah, that's what I meant by

We really need the teams 15-25 to start losing ASAP (and many will).

The problem will still exist if any of those are sec teams and only drop a spot or two after losing to an equally mediocre sec team.

Yeah, as much as people talk about how parity within a league actually hurts the chances at the CFP (if they all pick up multiple losses), that will also create the situation you indicate where they'll all just stay in the poll and trade places.

ALERT!!!

When they all beat each other it certainly doesn't mean they've gotten mediocre, they've obviously all become really good!

SARCASM!

[WaveProf]

Absolutely correct prof (that's what I'd been arguing all summer with those claiming we could make the CFP.).

You and I both spend a lot of time analyzing how polls work over the years, and we've always been much, much, much closer to each other in this analysis than I think it seems for you. We butt heads because I see historical evidence to be a *fraction* more optimistic for G5 teams in some specific scenarios than you are (this is how I nailed exactly where we'd end up in the final AP last year), and I think you read that as me being as overly optimistic as most on here, when we tend to be not that far off from each other if you really close-read what we are saying.

[WaveProf]

Tulane drops to #38 in the coaches with only 7 votes.

In G5 terms, behind Fresno State (28), and Air Force (37). Not good tonto.

Other G5 to watch out for, Wyoming 40, Ohio 41, JMU 42, Memphis 45

LSU is 13, Ole Miss 16.

At least one media person on social media referenced Kansas State losing as hurting Tulane's luster. Really? Seems a stretch.

[waverider]

Tulane drops to #38 in the coaches with only 7 votes.

In G5 terms, behind Fresno State (28), and Air Force (37). Not good tonto.

Other G5 to watch out for, Wyoming 40, Ohio 41, JMU 42, Memphis 45

LSU is 13, Ole Miss 16.

At least one media person on social media referenced Kansas State losing as hurting Tulane's luster. Really? Seems a stretch.

That doesn’t really make much sense. That was last year’s conference winning team we beat.

[WaveProf]

Tulane drops to #38 in the coaches with only 7 votes.

In G5 terms, behind Fresno State (28), and Air Force (37). Not good tonto.

Other G5 to watch out for, Wyoming 40, Ohio 41, JMU 42, Memphis 45

LSU is 13, Ole Miss 16.

At least one media person on social media referenced Kansas State losing as hurting Tulane's luster. Really? Seems a stretch.

That doesn’t really make much sense. That was last year’s conference winning team we beat.

Agreed. I think low scoring and Pratt being out indefinitely are more likely.

[Wandering Quaker]

I think we're going to have to smack memphis to get back in. And memphis has some ability at skillspots but is not a better team than tulane this year.

[PeteRasche]

Absolutely correct prof (that's what I'd been arguing all summer with those claiming we could make the CFP.).

You and I both spend a lot of time analyzing how polls work over the years, and we've always been much, much, much closer to each other in this analysis than I think it seems for you. We butt heads because I see historical evidence to be a *fraction* more optimistic for G5 teams in some specific scenarios than you are (this is how I nailed exactly where we'd end up in the final AP last year), and I think you read that as me being as overly optimistic as most on here, when we tend to be not that far off from each other if you really close-read what we are saying.

When I said "that's what I'd been arguing", I didn't mean with you.

[wavedom]

Memphis isn't good but luckily for us the media still gives them credit for when they were pretty good. Hope they win all their games except against us. As to KSU people were here before the season saying they wanted them to continue to look good for our sake.

[QuarterbackU]

We need Memphis to beat Missouri and Boise State and get to 5-0 in upcoming weeks.

Let them be the ranked team that we knock off this season.

Then we'll have 7 weeks (including AAC Championship) to win and move up the Top 25 via attrition of others.

[WaveProf]

Drop to 32 in AP with 13 votes. Fresno, only other G5, is 30

[Marathon Wave]

CRAZY.

We needed 28 against usm to get noticed.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/p ... 023-09-17/

[Godfather]

CRAZY.

We needed 28 against usm to get noticed.

https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/p ... 023-09-17/

You never want to be up 28-3.