Strength of Schedule Watch

[PeteRasche]

Gents, dont forget james madison. Ineligble for post season so let em win SBC regular season undefeated

Only team they play that we're concerned with is Marshall. If they played Fresno we'd all be big JMU fans.

In other words, JMU could go undefeated and we could still not be the G5 NY6, if Fresno goes undefeated.

[OGSB]

The Mountain West has overtaken the American Athletic

The American was bound to take a hit with three of its stronger football members from last year in the Big 12. Meanwhile, the Mountain West has a ranked team, Fresno State, for the first time this season and another, Air Force, that probably should be getting more love from the voters. And don’t forget Wyoming, which already owns a Power Five win against Texas Tech and was in a tie with Texas in the fourth quarter with its backup quarterback starting.

The lower echelon of the Mountain West, however, isn’t quite as accomplished. Yes, there was Colorado State’s battle into the night with Colorado, but seven of the conference’s squads are under .500 through September. As far as the automatic New Year’s Six bowl berth is concerned though, it’s only the playoff committee’s ranking of the top finisher that matters. The MWC has the inside track there at the moment, but defending American champion Tulane and once-beaten Memphis are still in the mix.

https://sports.yahoo.com/georgia-should ... p_deeplink

[LawGreenie]

I posted that idea in another thread. Lots of MWC love. And it sets up for a nice round-robin, perfect for clicks and tweets, with no necessary analysis between Air Force, Fresno, UNLV, and Wyoming.

Fresno and Wyoming moved to big Fox for prime time, also.

[PeteRasche]

Said it elsewhere, will say it again... it's really, really hard to go undefeated. If any MWC or SBC team does it, they will get the NY6 spot over a 12-1 Tulane, and they should. All we can do is tip our cap. We certainly would have no ground to stand on, as we scream "unfair" while wearing our "1998 National Champions" t-shirts.

In the meantime, we need to beat Memphis and root for all those teams to knock each other out. I doubt any of those teams would get in with one loss over 12-1 Tulane.

[Poseidon]

Said it elsewhere, will say it again... it's really, really hard to go undefeated. If any MWC or SBC team does it, they will get the NY6 spot over a 12-1 Tulane, and they should. All we can do is tip our cap. We certainly would have no ground to stand on, as we scream "unfair" while wearing our "1998 National Champions" t-shirts.

In the meantime, we need to beat Memphis and root for all those teams to knock each other out. I doubt any of those teams would get in with one loss over 12-1 Tulane.

Spot on. If we would have beat Ole Miss we would have the leg up. That is the effect of playing a schedule with a tougher opponent.

I am also starting to think that a 1 loss Wyoming is a problem and maybe even a 1 loss USAFA, cause they media loves them some academies. Another bad scenario is loses to Wyoming and then beat an undefeated USAFA in the CCG.

The key to having a "strong" conference is apparently having 3-4 pretty good teams and the rest fairly bad.

[Baywave1]

Gents, dont forget james madison. Ineligble for post season so let em win SBC regular season undefeated

Only team they play that we're concerned with is Marshall. If they played Fresno we'd all be big JMU fans.

In other words, JMU could go undefeated and we could still not be the G5 NY6, if Fresno goes undefeated.

Pete, we are competing with 50+ teams not just Fresno. Season isn't even 1/2 over. We made Cotton Bowl as a two loss team. I’m all for help everywhere including Army/Navy taking out AFA.

However since you ask, i think it is more likely (still a stretch) that Tulane goes 8-0 from here than Fresno does. Let’s see how they handle Laramie this week.

Meanwhile team most likely to go unbeaten is Liberty. My guess is rank prejudice keeps them out of Peach but we can save that discussion for late November. I don’t much care who goes if it’s not Tulane or Memphis.

[QuarterbackU]

Air Force's Linebackers are very talented and really fun to watch. All of their wins have been by double digits.

If AF and Fresno St end up in the MW championship game, it will be very entertaining.

Hopefully, Wyoming has a chance to give one or both a L during regular season.

[PeteRasche]

Pete, we are competing with 50+ teams not just Fresno. Season isn't even 1/2 over. We made Cotton Bowl as a two loss team. I’m all for help everywhere including Army/Navy taking out AFA.

All of these scenarios are if we go 12-1. That being the case, we are certainly not competing with 50+ teams, because hardly any other G5s have a P5 win, are undefeated, and/or have any carryover name recognition from last year. A 12-1 Tulane only has to worry about the teams in that list over on the non-Tulane board.

If we lose another game there's very little chance we make NY6. Like, I'm not even gonna bother thinking about it unless somehow they all get 2 losses fairly quickly. Last year we had the KSU win to push us through the USM loss. This year another loss is likely the end of the NY6 hope.

As said elsewhere, we're at the point where no G5 is going to move up for any win beyond just having teams above them lose. That means the only way we get ahead of Fresno is if they lose. AFA might pass us this week and that would be two teams moving up, week by week, that we're behind. My new concern is that Fresno now gets so far ahead before we even get ranked that a single loss, especially if it's close, might not drop them below us. Everyone seems to think beating Memphis gets us ranked, but I'm not convinced. Like, say Fresno keeps winning and teams ahead of them lose, and by the time we get ranked, we're like 24 and they're like 16. It's late in the year and they lose a 1-point game, even to a bad team, but every other team between us wins. The longer the pollsters have been voting for them, the more convinced they are that Fresno is good. So they might end up dropping to 22 or 23, whereas a loss any time soon would drop them entirely out. And if everyone between us won, we maybe don't pass them.

Of course the CFP poll isn't the AP poll, so who knows...

[LawGreenie]

Does Air Force get distracted by Army and Navy? Seems like those games might overshadow and derail a race for a conference title.

[Baywave1]

Pete, Sorry but you think too much. Tulane can outvote 50+ other teams. But we should all welcome help knocking other teams off while ideally Tulane runs table.

[nolasilver]

Fresno actually has a tough matchup this week @ Wyoming. Fresno is favored by 5.5pts

[tjtlja]

Beating Memphis will not happen unless we start executing at a much higher level offensively. The coaching changes on that side of the ball plus Pratt’s injury have had huge impact year over year on this side of the ball. This is our season and we need to play much better. 1-0.

And I don’t think beating Memphis gets us ranked unless all the stars align perfectly.

[GretnaGrn]

Fresno actually has a tough matchup this week @ Wyoming. Fresno is favored by 5.5pts

I actually may walk down to Harrah's to lay a 20 on Wyoming, then. That line is waaaay too high. I think Wyoming has an excellent chance to upset them.

I think the Mountain West will beat up on each other, but I sure will be happier once it actually happens. While it may not be strictly necessary, I will also be more comfortable once Marshall loses.

[waverider]

As Pete said, none of this matters if we lose to Memphis. We will be back to bowl projection watching the rest of the season while thinking about what could have been.

I think a win over Memphis could get us in the top 25 (depending on what happens around us). Most voters, like us fans, are still trying to figure out what type of team we really have and beating them lets us all know we are still pretty good.

Our road winning streak is around the 6th longest active streak (Georgia has a bunch, then 4 or 5 teams with 7 then us with 6).

[tulaneoutlaw]

If we lose to Memphis, a conference title is still in play. No divisions this year and we'd need some help, but finishing 10-2 would give us a reasonable shot at being in the title game. Very likely it would be a shot at revenge over Memphis. The only a thing loss really eliminates is NY6.

[Baywave1]

FWIW, Vannini thinks Tulane beats Memphis and has played well this season to date.

We don’t have to agree but i think some here have been obsessed with in game shortcomings. Vannini/Athletic are looking at Tulane forest and like it so far.

Yes i do think Tulane can repeat as AAC Champ with two losses. No prediction on Bowl game other than I know it won’t be Cure.

On edit: Aresco will place AAC champ in best bowl available (ideally aginst P5/SEC opponent.) by definition that ain’t the Cure even if ESPN prefers it because it owns it

[tulaneoutlaw]

No prediction on Bowl game other than I know it won’t be Cure.

On edit: Aresco will place AAC champ in best bowl available (ideally aginst P5/SEC opponent.) by definition that ain’t the Cure even if ESPN prefers it because it owns it

I think we'd all like to see another matchup against a P5 if we fall short of NY6. The conference has a couple of tie-ins against ACC teams in the Fenway and Military Bowls. First Responder, Gasparilla, and Birmingham Bowls also are supposed to have an AAC vs P5 tie in, though the P5 tie in part rotates among multiple conferences.

In practice, though, there are fewer and fewer G5 vs P5 opportunities left in bowl season. Last year Cinci got a crack at Louisville and UCF played Duke, but the other bowls I listed either didn't have an AAC team in them or swaps occurred and they ended up G5 vs G5. There's a clear bias to put P5 vs P5 I guess for ratings purposes. I think if we finish with 10+ wins, whether conf champs or not we'll get a P5 opponent. I really don't want to be in the scenario the Sun Belt and CUSA were in last year where their champs faced off and didn't get to play a bigger brand.

[WaveProf]

. The only a thing loss really eliminates is NY6.

Eliminates is a big word. A 2 loss Tulane team would need more MWC self-harm than we have any reasonable right to expect, and I really don't want to start watching midnight games every week while wearing tin foil hats, so lets win and not have to worry about it. But our chances after a loss would be slim, super slim, but not razor thin.

[ml wave]

. The only a thing loss really eliminates is NY6.

Eliminates is a big word. A 2 loss Tulane team would need more MWC self-harm than we have any reasonable right to expect, and I really don't want to start watching midnight games every week while wearing tin foil hats, so lets win and not have to worry about it. But our chances after a loss would be slim, super slim, but not razor thin.

I think a 2 loss AAC champ Tulane (lose to Memphis, avenge in CCG) has a better chance at NY6 over 1 loss G5 field than a 1 loss Tulane has over an undefeated G5 field.

[tulaneoutlaw]

. The only a thing loss really eliminates is NY6.

Eliminates is a big word. A 2 loss Tulane team would need more MWC self-harm than we have any reasonable right to expect, and I really don't want to start watching midnight games every week while wearing tin foil hats, so lets win and not have to worry about it. But our chances after a loss would be slim, super slim, but not razor thin.

I think a 2 loss AAC champ Tulane (lose to Memphis, avenge in CCG) has a better chance at NY6 over 1 loss G5 field than a 1 loss Tulane has over an undefeated G5 field.

I could agree with both points. Really a second loss all but eliminates NY6, but if enough chaos happens it is possible we could get the spot as a two loss champ. Being defending NY6 champs probably helps us in that regard.

[PeteRasche]

I think a 2 loss AAC champ Tulane (lose to Memphis, avenge in CCG) has a better chance at NY6 over 1 loss G5 field than a 1 loss Tulane has over an undefeated G5 field.

Looking at who the remaining G5 undefeateds are, there's very little chance a 1-loss Tulane would get in over any of them. Correct me if I missed one, but I believe that would be Fresno, Air Force, Marshall, and Liberty (not counting JMU who is ineligible). Of those four, the only one we *might* get in over would be Liberty, as they have absolutely nobody good on their schedule, specifically no P5. That said, as I posted previously, even if it's Liberty, we can't complain about it (1998 hypocrisy), we just tip our cap, and root for them to knock off a P5 in the NY6.

[WaveProf]

Looking at who the remaining G5 undefeateds are, there's very little chance a 1-loss Tulane would get in over any of them. Correct me if I missed one, but I believe that would be Fresno, Air Force, Marshall, and Liberty (not counting JMU who is ineligible). Of those four, the only one we *might* get in over would be Liberty, as they have absolutely nobody good on their schedule, specifically no P5. That said, as I posted previously, even if it's Liberty, we can't complain about it (1998 hypocrisy), we just tip our cap, and root for them to knock off a P5 in the NY6.

I think between their schedule (or lackthereof) and their institutional reputation (maybe shouldn't matter, but does), we would have a very good shot of getting in over an undefeated Liberty. Marshall would be a long shot, but not 0%, and meanwhile they still have to beat NC State. Air Force and MWC will def get in ahead of us if undefeated.

[ml wave]

I think a 2 loss AAC champ Tulane (lose to Memphis, avenge in CCG) has a better chance at NY6 over 1 loss G5 field than a 1 loss Tulane has over an undefeated G5 field.

Looking at who the remaining G5 undefeateds are, there's very little chance a 1-loss Tulane would get in over any of them. Correct me if I missed one, but I believe that would be Fresno, Air Force, Marshall, and Liberty (not counting JMU who is ineligible). Of those four, the only one we *might* get in over would be Liberty, as they have absolutely nobody good on their schedule, specifically no P5. That said, as I posted previously, even if it's Liberty, we can't complain about it (1998 hypocrisy), we just tip our cap, and root for them to knock off a P5 in the NY6.

Agree, that's why I think we look relatively better with 2 losses compared to their 1 (especially if we avenge our second loss in CCG).

[PeteRasche]

Looking at who the remaining G5 undefeateds are, there's very little chance a 1-loss Tulane would get in over any of them. Correct me if I missed one, but I believe that would be Fresno, Air Force, Marshall, and Liberty (not counting JMU who is ineligible). Of those four, the only one we *might* get in over would be Liberty, as they have absolutely nobody good on their schedule, specifically no P5. That said, as I posted previously, even if it's Liberty, we can't complain about it (1998 hypocrisy), we just tip our cap, and root for them to knock off a P5 in the NY6.

I think between their schedule (or lackthereof) and their institutional reputation (maybe shouldn't matter, but does), we would have a very good shot of getting in over an undefeated Liberty. Marshall would be a long shot, but not 0%, and meanwhile they still have to beat NC State. Air Force and MWC will def get in ahead of us if undefeated.

I'd say if Marshall beats NC State they'll jump ahead of all G5s, Fresno and AFA included.

[GretnaGrn]

Looking at who the remaining G5 undefeateds are, there's very little chance a 1-loss Tulane would get in over any of them. Correct me if I missed one, but I believe that would be Fresno, Air Force, Marshall, and Liberty (not counting JMU who is ineligible). Of those four, the only one we *might* get in over would be Liberty, as they have absolutely nobody good on their schedule, specifically no P5. That said, as I posted previously, even if it's Liberty, we can't complain about it (1998 hypocrisy), we just tip our cap, and root for them to knock off a P5 in the NY6.

I think between their schedule (or lackthereof) and their institutional reputation (maybe shouldn't matter, but does), we would have a very good shot of getting in over an undefeated Liberty. Marshall would be a long shot, but not 0%, and meanwhile they still have to beat NC State. Air Force and MWC will def get in ahead of us if undefeated.

I'd say if Marshall beats NC State they'll jump ahead of all G5s, Fresno and AFA included.

"If."