The future of the AAC

[speckled trout]

What is your outlook on the American conference going forward and how much of an impact does it have on Tulane’s ability to thrive as an athletics department?

Obviously most of the league is struggling and the perception of the American is very poor. Bad teams/ brands that no one cares about will certainly harm fan interest. We need some teams especially the newcomers to develop into good programs. UTSA was supposed to be all that and a bag of chips, but they have been a letdown so far. Surprisingly, Rice seems to be heading in the right direction. People might disagree but UAB has decent potential IMO. Charlotte/North Texas/FAU are such dog water. I hate ESPN and Mike Aresco for adding those horrible teams.

I also wonder if the quality of the conference really matters that much as long as Tulane has a good coach? Keep doing what you can to retain Fritz and keep him happy. Then when the time comes make the next slam dunk hire. It has been proven time and time again that a good coach can win at Tulane.

This is of course assuming all the hypothetical dominoes don’t fall our way. I think we have to hope the American can get it together

[GretnaGrn]

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TRVuJxIRd9U[/youtube]

[tulaneoutlaw]

What Gretna said. the long term outlook of the conference is very poor. It will impact recruiting and our ability to hire well in the future. It will also impact our ability to raise funds and get the upgrades the program needs. Access to the 12 team playoff may be significantly hindered as other conferences pull even or pass us. We lose many key players after this year. There is no guarantee we won't slide back into being the same old Tulane that was a bottom feeder in the old CUSA I might add. The only remedy is to beg borrow or steal an invite to a better grouping of schools.

[washwave]

What is happening to the AAC is exactly what happened to C-USA when we were in it. All of the strong and/or name brand programs left to join better leagues and they back filled with directional schools. We were lucky to get a lifeline to the Big East/AAC a decade ago. Once SMU leaves, we are increasingly on an island. I don't think that anyone sees the life line out there now that the Pac 12 has disintegrated. We would need to maintain a strong commitment to running a power type program in spite of it to stay relevant over the long term. It can be done, but not sure if the university is going to do that over the long term.

[randymc]

Teams on the rise in AAC:
Tulane
Memphis
Army (coming soon)
S. Florida
Rice
Tulsa
UT San Antonio
UAB

Jury out:
North Texas
Florida Atlantic

DOA: dead on arrival
Navy
ECU
Temple
Charlotte

[waverider]

I’d keep an eye on Charlotte. They play pretty good defense but struggle to score points. If they can keep building on their defense they could start to climb the ranks of the conference

[WaveProf]

The AAC will get better than this year, but not by much, it'll still be a dumpster fire.

It won't *radically* impact our perception or recruiting as long as we keep dominating it and making NY6/Playoff, or first team out, every year. But that's a tough bar to get over *every* year, and once we start falling below it with much of any regularity, the AAC/perception will become a BIG deal.

We need to get out. In the meantime we need to dominate.

[Poseidon]

What Gretna said. the long term outlook of the conference is very poor.

WHY?

There long term outlook of the conference is wide open.

People said the same thing in 2014 when ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa joined the leftovers. Teams filled the gap and rose to the top.

A better argument is the 2023 version of the AAC is likely the worst it will be in a long while. You have a perfect storm of traditional teams like ECU, USF, Temple, and Tulsa down or with new coaches. All of those teams have proven they can be strong in the past or won the conference title. Of the new schools four have new coaches and Rice, who doesn't, is doing ok. UTSA is the disappointment, but no one was handwringing about their addition earlier or thinks they are doomed to mediocrity. There are 7 new coaches in 2023. There are going to duds, but there is almost bound to be 1-3 good hires, maybe a great hire in there that has their team surprisingly really good in year 2-3. USF has the potential and their new HC is already doing better than their last coach. The is a decent chances ECU or USTA has a bounce back year next year.

Let's Look at AAC 2013. Two ranked teams, but one was on their way out. The rest were not impressive.

Team W L W L
No. 10 UCF $ 8 – 0 12 – 1
No. 15 Louisville 7 – 1 12 – 1
Cincinnati 6 – 2 9 – 4
Houston 5 – 3 8 – 5
SMU 4 – 4 5 – 7
Rutgers 3 – 5 6 – 7
UConn 3 – 5 3 – 9
South Florida 2 – 6 2 – 10
Memphis 1 – 7 3 – 9
Temple 1 – 7 2 – 10


Let's look at the 2014 AAC standings, the first season of the old AAC. Conference champ Memphis was the only team that was ranked and they were #25. They went 2-2 with a loss to Ole Miss OOC. The entire conference had a grand total of 3 P5 wins and one of those was vs Vandy. Top 3 teams had 0 P5 wins. This was not impressive and there was only one new coach, Diaco at UCONN. Only one team was ranked at any point during the year. Based season alone you could say the long term outlook of the conference is very poor.

Team W L W L
No. 25 Memphis + 7 – 1 10 – 3
Cincinnati + 7 – 1 9 – 4
UCF + 7 – 1 9 – 4
East Carolina 5 – 3 8 – 5
Houston 5 – 3 8 – 5
Temple 4 – 4 6 – 6
South Florida 3 – 5 4 – 8
Tulane 2 – 6 3 – 9
Tulsa 2 – 6 2 – 10
UConn 1 – 7 2 – 10
SMU 1 – 7 1 – 11

Then 2015 four different Teams were ranked during some point of the season. Two Finished ranked. Things can change.

Team W L W L
East Division
Temple x 7 – 1 10 – 4
South Florida 6 – 2 8 – 5
Cincinnati 4 – 4 7 – 6
UConn 4 – 4 6 – 7
East Carolina 3 – 5 5 – 7
UCF 0 – 8 0 – 12
West Division
No. 8 Houston xy$ 7 – 1 13 – 1
No. 18 Navy x 7 – 1 11 – 2
Memphis 5 – 3 9 – 4
Tulsa 3 – 5 6 – 7
Tulane 1 – 7 3 – 9
SMU 1 – 7 2 – 10



There are 7 new coaches in 2023. There are going to duds, but there is almost bound to be 1-3 good hires, maybe a great hire in there that has their team surprisingly really good in year 2-3. USF has the potential and their new HC is already doing better than their last coach. The is a decent chances ECU or USTA has a bounce back year next year.

[waverider]

Like I said in another thread. There are schools that have been putting more into their football program for longer than Tulane and now have the money to go along with it. We got a bump from the season we had last year but there are 2-3 new programs who can pass us up rather quickly if we go back to being complacent.

[GSx]

The conference is terrible; but we knew that when we foolishly expanded by 6 for want of a couple of mill per year. it was made worse by the conference dealing us a CUSA schedule. Staying at 10ish would have at least allowed us to play USF and Memphis every year.
That said, sunbelt sucks too. Rather play UAB than Troy.
There are no good alternatives at this point. The epidemic of schedule numbing that we're seeing across multiple sports is concerning. But the biggest concern is that we haven't built the infrastructure and there's nothing tangible that suggests we have any interest at all in doing so.
If not now, when?
All we have is Willie, and he won't be here forever.

[nolasilver]

What Gretna said. the long term outlook of the conference is very poor.

WHY?

There long term outlook of the conference is wide open.

People said the same thing in 2014 when ECU, Tulane, and Tulsa joined the leftovers. Teams filled the gap and rose to the top.

A better argument is the 2023 version of the AAC is likely the worst it will be in a long while. You have a perfect storm of traditional teams like ECU, USF, Temple, and Tulsa down or with new coaches. All of those teams have proven they can be strong in the past or won the conference title. Of the new schools four have new coaches and Rice, who doesn't, is doing ok. UTSA is the disappointment, but no one was handwringing about their addition earlier or thinks they are doomed to mediocrity. There are 7 new coaches in 2023. There are going to duds, but there is almost bound to be 1-3 good hires, maybe a great hire in there that has their team surprisingly really good in year 2-3. USF has the potential and their new HC is already doing better than their last coach. The is a decent chances ECU or USTA has a bounce back year next year.

Let's Look at AAC 2013. Two ranked teams, but one was on their way out. The rest were not impressive.

Team W L W L
No. 10 UCF $ 8 – 0 12 – 1
No. 15 Louisville 7 – 1 12 – 1
Cincinnati 6 – 2 9 – 4
Houston 5 – 3 8 – 5
SMU 4 – 4 5 – 7
Rutgers 3 – 5 6 – 7
UConn 3 – 5 3 – 9
South Florida 2 – 6 2 – 10
Memphis 1 – 7 3 – 9
Temple 1 – 7 2 – 10


Let's look at the 2014 AAC standings, the first season of the old AAC. Conference champ Memphis was the only team that was ranked and they were #25. They went 2-2 with a loss to Ole Miss OOC. The entire conference had a grand total of 3 P5 wins and one of those was vs Vandy. Top 3 teams had 0 P5 wins. This was not impressive and there was only one new coach, Diaco at UCONN. Only one team was ranked at any point during the year. Based season alone you could say the long term outlook of the conference is very poor.

Team W L W L
No. 25 Memphis + 7 – 1 10 – 3
Cincinnati + 7 – 1 9 – 4
UCF + 7 – 1 9 – 4
East Carolina 5 – 3 8 – 5
Houston 5 – 3 8 – 5
Temple 4 – 4 6 – 6
South Florida 3 – 5 4 – 8
Tulane 2 – 6 3 – 9
Tulsa 2 – 6 2 – 10
UConn 1 – 7 2 – 10
SMU 1 – 7 1 – 11

Then 2015 four different Teams were ranked during some point of the season. Two Finished ranked. Things can change.

Team W L W L
East Division
Temple x 7 – 1 10 – 4
South Florida 6 – 2 8 – 5
Cincinnati 4 – 4 7 – 6
UConn 4 – 4 6 – 7
East Carolina 3 – 5 5 – 7
UCF 0 – 8 0 – 12
West Division
No. 8 Houston xy$ 7 – 1 13 – 1
No. 18 Navy x 7 – 1 11 – 2
Memphis 5 – 3 9 – 4
Tulsa 3 – 5 6 – 7
Tulane 1 – 7 3 – 9
SMU 1 – 7 2 – 10



There are 7 new coaches in 2023. There are going to duds, but there is almost bound to be 1-3 good hires, maybe a great hire in there that has their team surprisingly really good in year 2-3. USF has the potential and their new HC is already doing better than their last coach. The is a decent chances ECU or USTA has a bounce back year next year.

How many of those teams were in P5 conferences previously ? How many of the current AAC have been in Power conferences before ? You could also look at average attendance, past success and facilities of those original AAC teams and compare them to the new/current teams. Its light and day.

[tjtlja]

Agree with GSx. Infrastructure has to be the priority. When? I thought the cotton bowl would have had several announcements by now with visible signs starting. We do have the new locker room. What’s next, and more importantly when? Any answers?

[Baywave1]

It’s not so much as who is an AAC member as the P4/5/2 branding. It simply has had a cumulative impact of several decades now and continues to grow.

As long as CFP and NCAA other sports provide us access to national championships even if only on a breadcrumb basis, we are not irrelevant. But…..

Meanwhile Tulane for fifty or so years has been in generally urban conferences. It has worked out better than other G4 alternatives so why not stay the course until P4 opportunities arise or perhaps government finally takes antitrust action?

If Tulane or Memphis take NY6 access slot no one will note or care much if football is disproportionately weak currently.

In short, we need to bet on us

[DCGreenie]

What is your outlook on the American conference going forward and how much of an impact does it have on Tulane’s ability to thrive as an athletics department?
It will implode. Also, re: one of the posts, the conference landscape isn't anything like it was in 2014. Conference musical chairs game is unceasing, with some really asinine moves, along with the asinine implosion of the PAC12. Memphis is the next to go, following the lead of the Hoor SMU.

[ml wave]

It has worked out better than other G4 alternatives so why not stay the course until P4 opportunities arise or perhaps government finally takes antitrust action?

Because it's quite possible that we're now in a sinking ship (as we were in the urban-based CUSA with all of these same schools before we mercifully ejected) and, given our history, we don't have the utmost faith in Tulane to be able to prop up the rest of the conference.

[speckled trout]

What is your outlook on the American conference going forward and how much of an impact does it have on Tulane’s ability to thrive as an athletics department?
It will implode. Also, re: one of the posts, the conference landscape isn't anything like it was in 2014. Conference musical chairs game is unceasing, with some really asinine moves, along with the asinine implosion of the PAC12. Memphis is the next to go, following the lead of the Hoor SMU.

Memphis doesn’t have SMU money but I agree they will get out come hell or high water, further weakening a conference which is already hanging on by a thread. USF would probably be next.

I can’t say for certain what Tulane wants to do because I don’t know. Based on history I’m guessing they are just happy to be in the American and don’t have any real plans to do anything. Like others in this thread I’m confused and disappointed how Tulane hasn’t capitalized on the Cotton Bowl. Correct me if I’m wrong but the locker room project was in motion before the CB so basically we turned the biggest landmark victory in school history into nothing.

Kind of just wondering what will become of us since we are stuck here, hence the OP

[Baywave1]

Yes. But what is G4 alternative? I’d be ok with PAC2 deal if it’s feasible but who knows? I’m still thinking ACC as nt available for a decade.

Meanwhile AAC being an urban conference is probably still best of bad alternatives. AAC should have held its nose and invited Liberty like B12 did with BYU but Army would be a good add

Best answer is still anti-trust. Govt broke up Standard Oil and ATT. However it’s a long shot. Perfect answer is for Tulane to keep winning. But we need alot more than one Cotton Bowl.

[ml wave]

Yes. But what is G4 alternative? I’d be ok with PAC2 deal if it’s feasible but who knows? I’m still thinking ACC as nt available for a decade.

Meanwhile AAC being an urban conference is probably still best of bad alternatives. AAC should have held its nose and invited Liberty like B12 did with BYU but Army would be a good add

Best answer is still anti-trust. Govt broke up Standard Oil and ATT. However it’s a long shot. Perfect answer is for Tulane to keep winning. But we need alot more than one Cotton Bowl.

Well, the 2Pac deal is the alternative...nobody thinks the MAC or Belt is better. You can bet Memphis would jump to be with OSU/WSU, and we should too.

[GretnaGrn]

Anti-trust is no answer at all. Won't happen, for a long list of reasons--most simply, such cases are extremely costly and hard to win and the only organization with the resources to do it--the federal government--has no interest in attempting to do so. I'm not at all convinced that it would be winnable even with the (substantial) resources that would be needed, anyway; the fact that the power conferences keep admitting new teams rather argues against them being a trust in the anti-trust sense.

The best case scenario at this stage, outside of an ACC invite, which would involve several dominos falling that haven't yet, is for the PAC2 to lead a consolidation of the best teams in the American and the Mountain West.

Next time contracts come around, even the lesser sum the AAC gets will be dropping sharply. Anyone who thinks this current group is on the rise is only fooling themselves.

[ml wave]

What is your outlook on the American conference going forward and how much of an impact does it have on Tulane’s ability to thrive as an athletics department?
It will implode. Also, re: one of the posts, the conference landscape isn't anything like it was in 2014. Conference musical chairs game is unceasing, with some really asinine moves, along with the asinine implosion of the PAC12. Memphis is the next to go, following the lead of the Hoor SMU.

Memphis doesn’t have SMU money but I agree they will get out come hell or high water, further weakening a conference which is already hanging on by a thread. USF would probably be next.

I can’t say for certain what Tulane wants to do because I don’t know. Based on history I’m guessing they are just happy to be in the American and don’t have any real plans to do anything. Like others in this thread I’m confused and disappointed how Tulane hasn’t capitalized on the Cotton Bowl. Correct me if I’m wrong but the locker room project was in motion before the CB so basically we turned the biggest landmark victory in school history into nothing.

Kind of just wondering what will become of us since we are stuck here, hence the OP

I'm more optimistic than you, based on history. Even Cowen and Dickson saw the writing on the wall with CUSA and got out asap after these Charlotte level schools came in. And obviously I have way more faith in Fitts and Dannen than I did in them.

The locker room project was in motion before the CB but we really didn't hear anything about it. Perhaps there are things in motion now that we aren't hearing about...it would sound great to us for Tulane to launch some $200MM athletics fundraising campaign but we just don't operate like that. For whatever reason (internal politics? neighborhood opposition? fear of not raising enough?), tend to wait until the money is in hand before announcing our plans.

[PeteRasche]

The locker room project was in motion before the CB but we really didn't hear anything about it. Perhaps there are things in motion now that we aren't hearing about...it would sound great to us for Tulane to launch some $200MM athletics fundraising campaign but we just don't operate like that. For whatever reason (internal politics? neighborhood opposition? fear of not raising enough?), tend to wait until the money is in hand before announcing our plans.

Pretty good timing for this post then...
https://news.tulane.edu/news/tulane-uni ... nis-courts

[Baywave1]

Anti-trust is no answer at all. Won't happen, for a long list of reasons--most simply, such cases are extremely costly and hard to win and the only organization with the resources to do it--the federal government--has no interest in attempting to do so. I'm not at all convinced that it would be winnable even with the (substantial) resources that would be needed, anyway; the fact that the power conferences keep admitting new teams rather argues against them being a trust in the anti-trust sense.

The best case scenario at this stage, outside of an ACC invite, which would involve several dominos falling that haven't yet, is for the PAC2 to lead a consolidation of the best teams in the American and the Mountain West.

Next time contracts come around, even the lesser sum the AAC gets will be dropping sharply. Anyone who thinks this current group is on the rise is only fooling themselves.

Fed govt was interested during Obama/Bowden. As concerns cost, lots of litigation firms would be in line for 1/3rd success fee potentially in billions of dollars from ESPN, FOX and P2/ P4.

No suit has happened because it’s uncollegial by definition to sue another university. Tulane had perfect case in 1998. But Cowen passed (because he needed B1G votes for AAU presidency?)

You need a plaintiff. Maybe Liberty which doesn't have any P5/AAU friends anyway?

[DCGreenie]

Yes. But what is G4 alternative? I’d be ok with PAC2 deal if it’s feasible but who knows? I’m still thinking ACC as nt available for a decade.

Meanwhile AAC being an urban conference is probably still best of bad alternatives. AAC should have held its nose and invited Liberty like B12 did with BYU but Army would be a good add

Best answer is still anti-trust. Govt broke up Standard Oil and ATT. However it’s a long shot. Perfect answer is for Tulane to keep winning. But we need alot more than one Cotton Bowl.

"Best answer is still anti-trust." Chances are slim to none -- and Slim packed his suitcase and left town last night.......

[ml wave]

The locker room project was in motion before the CB but we really didn't hear anything about it. Perhaps there are things in motion now that we aren't hearing about...it would sound great to us for Tulane to launch some $200MM athletics fundraising campaign but we just don't operate like that. For whatever reason (internal politics? neighborhood opposition? fear of not raising enough?), tend to wait until the money is in hand before announcing our plans.

Pretty good timing for this post then...
https://news.tulane.edu/news/tulane-uni ... nis-courts

Hopefully getting tennis squared away (why did this solution take so long?) gets Goldring to open up the old wallet.......

[tulaneoutlaw]

The AAC with the teams that just left was a legitimately solid FBS conference. We had a stranglehold on the NY6 and the strong reputation of the league combined with fortuitous schedule luck let Cinci crash the playoff. There were years we were rated right with the bottom P5 conferences by SP+ and where we had more draft picks than the B12. Now the best resourced teams are gone or gettin'. So Poseidon, do you really believe we'll recapture any of that with the current cast? Not could we - of course anything is technically possible - but are we likely to?

I see no concrete reason for long term league optimism, just hope that it will work out like it did a decade ago when things were radically different. I'd love to be wrong. What if I'm right?